Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Warm layer here is barely above 0C (really just fractions of a degree) and like 200-500 feet thick when most of the precip falls on the 00z GFS/NAM. I think we'd get by with minimal pingers if that verifies exactly. It sorta feels like a toned down version of 12/15/07...quick round of pingers, Tim cancels/goes to bed and misses the good rates and we end up with a nice storm. Just kidding Tim. If it takes me going to bed/calling bust early to get the desired result...then you can count on me. But really, it's a tough call for LAF. A little leery when we have to root for a slightly cooler profile to do the deed, even if its modeled. Looks like IND is playing up freezing rain for the CWA. I think I'll just sit back and welcome whatever falls our way. At least it looks fun for a couple of hours starting tonight. Good luck to all with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Do we have any posters in northern MO or western IL south of the QC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wichita obs from earlier this morning. The last one is interesting. 0.30" in one hour, but just an inch of snow measured. Fun storm though. METAR KICT 210953Z 07015KT 1/2SM R01L/2800V3500FT TSSN FZFG OVC005CB M04/M05 A2986 RMK AO2 TSB20E49B52 SLP125 OCNL LTGICCC VC E-S TS VC E-S MOV NE SNINCR 1/7 P0009 T10391050 METAR KICT 211053Z COR 07015KT 1/2SM TSSN FZ FG OVC005CB M04/M05 A2986 RMK TSB20E49B52 SLP125 OCNL LGT ICCC CC E-S TS GC E-S MOV NE SNINCR 1/7 P0009 SPECI KICT 211122Z 08014G22KT 070V150 1/4SM R01L/1400V1800FT +TSSN FZFG OVC003CB M04/M04 A2984 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/4 TSE04B10 OCNL LTGICCC ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV NE P0018 METAR KICT 211153Z 06014KT 1/4SM R01L/1400V2800FT +SN FZFG VV003 M04/M04 A2983 RMK AO2 TSE04B10E49 SLP113 SNINCR 1/9 4/009 P0030 60056 70109 T10391044 11033 21039 56029 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Definitely an aggressive warm layer down there keeping ratios down but it will be so wet and dynamic that it won't stop it from being a killer event. crazy amounts of warm moist air being pumped in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 kind of sucks having some of those guys split off now...there aren't a ton of posters over there but that jcwxguy is probably stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Do we have any posters in northern MO or western IL south of the QC area? Frequent lurker -- but seldom post. Enjoy the knowledge and discussion being thrown around in these threads the last few days. I live in St. Charles county on the western edge of St. Louis metro... this storm has puzzled me more than any other in recent memory. LSX has bumped up estimates from 1-3 overnight to 3-6 for the majority of the metro area -- with the potential for more if the initial "surge" can push through the dry air surrounding us. Pretty extensive forecast discussion posted earlier this morning: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LSX&issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Will be interesting to see if the cold air stays in play or if the WAA truly does allow freezing rain/sleet to cut into our totals. LSRs in Osage, KS already reporting 4 inches on the ground w/thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks for posting, you are in an interesting area with overperformer potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My uneducated final guess. FWA: 1.4" IKK: 3.4" IND: 0.1" (mix) LAF: 1.0" (mix) lean warmer profile, but intense burst of SN/PL gets it done...and i round up MKE: 3.9" MLI: 5.5" MSN: 4.4" ORD: 3.7" RFD: 4.2" SBN: 2.2" STL: 3.0" (mix) highly bust-able, in either direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My uneducated final guess. FWA: 1.4" IKK: 3.4" IND: 0.1" (mix) LAF: 1.0" (mix) lean warmer profile, but intense burst of SN/PL gets it done...and i round up MKE: 3.9" MLI: 5.5" MSN: 4.4" ORD: 3.7" RFD: 4.2" SBN: 2.2" STL: 3.0" (mix) highly bust-able, in either direction Nice looking calls...I'd probably have ORD higher than MKE but minor quibble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lets give some final calls for MCI Im going bold 14.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lets give some final calls for MCI Im going bold 14.5" 12.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nice looking calls...I'd probably have ORD higher than MKE but minor quibble. You're probably right, but I don't think they'll be too far apart. Lets give some final calls for MCI Im going bold 14.5" 12.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12z NAM cuts QPF from 6z in half across Chicago rally cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You're probably right, but I don't think they'll be too far apart. yeah ORD does slightly better with the WAA snows...MKE gets some wraparound scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Got some flurry action in my hood ATM. Final calls (only a few since I am currently in a cat waiting on a train). Going with a weenie solution: DKB: 6.1" ORD: 5.8" GEOS: 5.5" RFD: 6.0" Cyclone: 7.2" STL: 11.4" LAF: 3.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12z NAM comes in hotter for central/western IL...but weakens heading ENE. Maybe a touch wetter for LAF, but I'm guessing a little warmer profile. Dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Got some flurry action in my hood ATM. Final calls (only a few since I am currently in a cat waiting on a train). Going with a weenie solution: DKB: 6.1" ORD: 5.8" GEOS: 5.5" RFD: 6.0" Cyclone: 7.2" STL: 11.4" LAF: 3.1" good for you. I think STL is destined for mixing issues but just NW looks good. 12 4km NAM with a weenie band for Urbana towards LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 12z NAM cuts QPF from 6z in half across Chicago rally cancel Half? hardly. Still .50" liquid here. 6z GFS was also wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Half? hardly. Still .50" liquid here. 6z GFS was also wetter. looks like .3" here on twisterdata IMBY down from nearly .7" Either way, riding 2.9" for ORD 1.9" for MBY 3.5" for you way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 looks like .3" here on twisterdata IMBY down from nearly .7" Either way, riding 2.9" for ORD 1.9" for MBY 3.5" for you way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My uneducated final guess. FWA: 1.4" IKK: 3.4" IND: 0.1" (mix) LAF: 1.0" (mix) lean warmer profile, but intense burst of SN/PL gets it done...and i round up MKE: 3.9" MLI: 5.5" MSN: 4.4" ORD: 3.7" RFD: 4.2" SBN: 2.2" STL: 3.0" (mix) highly bust-able, in either direction I still think LAF will end up with 2-3". Down here we'll see everything including the kitchen sink.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Dot of 0.75" just to the SSE of LAF. Oh NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 looks like .3" here on twisterdata IMBY down from nearly .7" 122.png lol Looks like 0.50" to the lakefront, total through 36. Though, those twister maps always look generous to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I still think LAF will end up with 2-3". Down here we'll see everything including the kitchen sink.. If things break right...you might be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Dot of 0.75" just to the SSE of LAF. Oh NAM. 2:21 12z NAM 30 total QPF.gif Looks to be about over MBY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 4" reported in KC in less thenn 2 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Looks to be about over MBY.. Pretty close. Make sure you park the car in the garage tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol Looks like 0.50" to the lakefront, total through 36. Though, those twister maps always look generous to me. I'm tossing the .15 or so of wraparound scraps that are overdone. It was a serious step back towards reality from 6z. Even being negative..model agreement on .35 or so of liquid at ORD is good. 12:1 and you have a solid hit. We'll see how it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Kind of a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 yep legit +SN right there...heavier than anything during GHD easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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