Hoosier Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Tough call for your area. One important plus is you guys look to get much more precip overall compared to the very dry runs that were seen a few days ago. Looks like you guys may battle some pingers at times, but being that close to the mix line could yield you some very heavy bursts of snow. No matter how much you guys end up with it should be very entertaining in the least. Warm layer here is barely above 0C (really just fractions of a degree) and like 200-500 feet thick when most of the precip falls on the 00z GFS/NAM. I think we'd get by with minimal pingers if that verifies exactly. It sorta feels like a toned down version of 12/15/07...quick round of pingers, Tim cancels/goes to bed and misses the good rates and we end up with a nice storm. Just kidding Tim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Awesomeness happening in the plains right now as the upper low crawls east bringing with it strong lift coupled with moisture advection aided by the backed LLJ of 50kts into the TX PH, combination of that and you get a radar exploding with convection in eastern NM and the southern TX PH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What kind of ratios are you thinking for this? I was guessing around 13-15:1 with the main burst at least. Figure there's gonna be some great dendrites with that. Following that though I'm guessing more of a 10:1 with much smaller small flakes as the pseudo dry slot moves overhead. Yeah I think they'll fluctuate depending on banding etc. Should be highest early on and slowly go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Awesomeness happening in the plains right now as the upper low crawls east bringing with it strong lift coupled with moisture advection aided by the backed LLJ of 50kts into the TX PH, combination of that and you get a radar exploding with convection in eastern NM and the southern TX PH. 12.png Agree...good stuff. In the C/W forum, baro suggested there could be some 20-25" jackpot amounts in KS as all of this comes together. Interesting storm for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Agree...good stuff. In the C/W forum, baro suggested there could be some 20-25" jackpot amounts in KS as all of this comes together. Interesting storm for sure. there will be, already 6-9" down in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Spring planting conditions looking up for KS and southern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Spring planting conditions looking up for KS and southern NE. Good for the utility companies too, we were suppose to lay fiber down there this week in the areas that already have 6-9 inches. I don't think we will be starting that project anytime soon. More time for ice fishing, so this storm is a win for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 First call 3.8" at MKE Going to stick with this even though I think it might bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Going to stick with this even though I think it might bust high. High? All the model trends tonight have been positive.. IMO you're going to bust low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Going to stick with this even though I think it might bust high. Now I think you'll do quite well, and it's pretty much in consensus with what most mets in the region think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Still sticking to my guns on this one... 2.0", still thinking I'll bust high. The usual weenie run 24 hours out, short range guidance will come back down to earth by 06/12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 RAP looks beefy with the band over Missouri tomorrow at 4pm. May be overdone but still fun to look at. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/839/rapzp.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 In my mind I've been poo-pooing the storm all week, assuming that mid-level dryness would crumble the band just as it enters Chicagoland, but I don't know, the models see something impressive this last cycle. Other mets have mentioned elevated instability down around STL will probably make for some decently intense precipitation rates on the leading edge, and it seems that if we transport that northeast (and if we now think that that will overcome whatever negative factor the drying ends up being) that this could end up being an overperformer all the way to Lansing or so. Would be awesome to see our biggest snowfall of the season tomorrow night (i.e. anything > 3.5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 anyone with QPF for the euro for St Louis would be appreciated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 High? All the model trends tonight have been positive.. IMO you're going to bust low.. Now I think you'll do quite well, and it's pretty much in consensus with what most mets in the region think. We will see, although I think we see most if not all of our accumulation with the WAA band of snow. The mid levels look to dry pretty quickly Friday with limited moisture in the dgz so light snow or drizzle looks likely. Its all going to depend on how strong the initial band of snow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Chad tosses the 00z NAM...says it's too "pro snow" because of the initial dry air and later the mid level dryslot. Also still very concerned about sleet. I think that is a solid, conservative, realistic forecast. Will have to see how the upper low forms after ejection, but both concerns are highly valid. 3-5 hr burst of mod snow with relatively low ratios is not conducive to 7"+ like some are forecasting for Chicago. Weirder things have certainly happened, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Mke Model qpf Nam - 0.60" GFS - 0.43" Euro - 0.37" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Mke Model qpf Nam - 0.60" GFS - 0.43" Euro - 0.37" Nice improvement from the EURO. 0.38" for ORD. 0.52" for STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The Gem, ukmet, GGEM, and Euro are all far colder than the NAM. Now the 00z NAM for my area has gone a bit colder but is still a sleet storm. But locally the dismissal of the Euro, Gem, ukmet, a bunch of hi-res models is confusing to me. Hopefully they look at other models, even their own WRF besides the GFS. I am sure they will change things a bit from this graph, but it seems and understandably so that this set up is almost unimaginable for us to get snow from. While I do not expect all snow and think we may get some sleet after the first 2-3 hours of enhanced precip passes. this graph South East of the 5" line is under done. My cal for the City of STL attm is 4-6" with sleet contamination, no freezing rain, maybe freezing drizzle at the end. .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...STILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z...WITH THINGS RAMPING UP AFTER 12Z. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TOWARDS FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. ALSO SEEING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM WESTERN GULF AS LOW LEVEL JET IS RAMPING UP...HAVE 50 KTS AT KFWD AND 40KTS AT KSHV...WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS. 00Z NAM INDICATING MORE SNOW POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG I-70...BUT WAITING TIL REST OF 00Z MODELS COME IN...BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 6z NAM coming in even more juicy through 24hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Will be hard to deny trends if 12z continues or holds this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 00Z and 06Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 FWIW Every run of the RPM is looking better for my area and you guys as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 IND/ILN just issued a WWA for all of their CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thundersnow in southern Kansas, precip shield exploding right now, upper level vort max is almost on the other side of the Rockies http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=KWLD&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM going full weenie...sport peppers, relish, celery salt...the works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I see LOT has held my point at 2-4 which seems fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Things are popping off over KS right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 1 1912 March 22-24 24.2 Inches 20.5 Inches (23rd) 2 1894 Feb 11-12 15.8 Inches 8.7 Inches (12th) 3 1958 January 20-21 14.6 Inches 10.5 Inches (21st) 4 1962 January 18-19 14.0 Inches 11.8 Inches (18th) 5 1960 March 14-15 13.8 Inches 8.0 Inches (15th) 6 1930 January 8-9 13.7 Inches 12.8 Inches (8th) 7 1900 February 27-28 13.0 Inches 11.8 Inches (27th) 8 1926 March 29.31 12.3 Inches 7.5 Inches (30th) 9 1918 December 23-24 12.2 Inches 9.5 Inches (24th) 10 1915 March 3-5 11.9 Inches 10.4 Inches (4th) Kansas City has a shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 MO is looking really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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