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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm Part 2


Powerball

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NBC5 in Chicago just had a teaser for the weather segment that is on in 10 minutes. Brant Miller says he has 'stunning new snowfall estimates'.  Tom Skilling seems to be on board for higher totals as well. 

 

Looking better for a high end advisory event. 

 

Probably warning snows out towards Cyclone if trends continue.

 

Not directly related, but LES is blowing into Chicago this evening.

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HRRR, local LSX WRF, quite a few SREF members, and 4km NAM going ballistic with convection or a convectively enhanced frontogenic band starting over MO tomorrow and moving it towards STL just in time for lunch. 4km WRF also going ballistic with the snow totals. Almost all short range guidance up around 1" QPF, some higher.

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HRRR, local LSX WRF, quite a few SREF members, and 4km NAM going ballistic with convection or a convectively enhanced frontogenic band starting over MO tomorrow and moving it towards STL just in time for lunch. 4km WRF also going ballistic with the snow totals. Almost all short range guidance up around 1" QPF, some higher.

 

 

Good luck man.  Hope you guys finally get some decent snow.  Trends are definitely looking quite nice for both you and LAF.

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Good luck man. Hope you guys finally get some decent snow. Trends are definitely looking quite nice for both you and LAF.

I'm kinda torn on what's gonna happen here. If everything were to go right and we don't have mixing issues during the height of the storm then 4+ seems possible. There's going to be a nice gradient somewhere around here in all likelihood. I could see the counties bordering to the south ending up with primarily sleet/freezing rain. Might even see a sharp gradient here across Tippecanoe county which isn't extraordinarily big to begin with.

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I'm kinda torn on what's gonna happen here. If everything were to go right and we don't have mixing issues during the height of the storm then 4+ seems possible. There's going to be a nice gradient somewhere around here in all likelihood. I could see the counties bordering to the south ending up with primarily sleet/freezing rain. Might even see a sharp gradient here across Tippecanoe county which isn't extraordinarily big to begin with.

 

Tough call for your area.  One important plus is you guys look to get much more precip overall compared to the very dry runs that were seen a few days ago.  Looks like you guys may battle some pingers at times, but being that close to the mix line could yield you some very heavy bursts of snow.  No matter how much you guys end up with it should be very entertaining in the least.  :thumbsup:

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first purple is 6"

 

attachicon.gifsnow60.gif

 

What kind of ratios are you thinking for this?  I was guessing around 13-15:1 with the main burst at least.  Figure there's gonna be some great dendrites with that.  Following that though I'm guessing more of a 10:1 with much smaller small flakes as the pseudo dry slot moves overhead. 

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