Powerball Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Proceed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z Euro lays the wood to western/central Kansas. That looks to be the sweet spot in this entire storm, per this run...solid area of 12"+ totals. Fairly decent cut back of QPF for southern SD, northern IA, and southern MN too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z NAM hi res fwiw think .30"-.40" liquid a good bet right now for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 torching^ good thing it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Heard the EURO cranks out almost 0.75" for Keokuk, IA on this run. RPM snowfall - I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 torching^ good thing it's the NAM That's kinda been advertised for a while. It's warm where there's no precip...evaporative cooling would take care of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That's kinda been advertised for a while. It's warm where there's no precip...evaporative cooling would take care of that. Classic first words of an underperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That's kinda been advertised for a while. It's warm where there's no precip...evaporative cooling would take care of that. 34 and rain on the lakefront. Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 34 and rain on the lakefront. Take it to the bank. i'll ride 1.9"...which fits nicely with the take 33% of what the RPM is showing rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Heard the EURO cranks out almost 0.75" for Keokuk, IA on this run. RPM snowfall - I think. My cousin is in Lawrence, Kansas on a job. Kinda jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It has been a while for Kansas, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Classic first words of an underperformer. This is probably like 95% snow for you. I'd be more concerned about qpf cuts than temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 i'll ride 1.9"...which fits nicely with the take 33% of what the RPM is showing rule You're really lowballing this one. I can't find a model that's throwing out QPF that low for you. Of course, it's not like 6" is realistic, but I think somewhere in the neighborhood of 3" is a decent call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This is probably like 95% snow for you. I'd be more concerned about qpf cuts than temp profiles. I'm just messing, I'm not worried about temps...we'll go to mix of freezing drizzle but that will be in garbage time at the end. Obviously QPF is going to be meager this far northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You're really lowballing this one. I can't find a model that's throwing out QPF that low for you. Of course, it's not like 6" is realistic, but I think somewhere in the neighborhood of 3" is a decent call. Winter 2012/2013...where a difference in calls of 1.1" is really lowballing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12Z Euro continues the trend of being slower and continues hammer us with convection (100-500 J/kg of MUCAPE). Nice weenie bullseyes showing up on the snowfall charts. Even though it's a colder solution, I still think we end up with some sleet and (perhaps) some ice mixing in at times with that vicious warm wedge fighting all the way til the bitter end. A 3-6 hour period of freezing drizzle sets in afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Heard the EURO cranks out almost 0.75" for Keokuk, IA on this run. RPM snowfall - I think. rpm_snowfall.png hasnt this been repeatedly busting high this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Winter 2012/2013...where a difference in calls of 1.1" is really lowballing. lol, lowballing was too harsh. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 hasnt this been repeatedly busting high this season? Not a 100% sure that's the RPM. I think it's a blend of more then 1 model. He said 4-5" was average. With 7" being at the high end. ...Just over 2" was the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 First call of 2.5" at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Joe splits the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 First call of 2.5" at ORD. First non-DAB call of the winter? Must be feeling good about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 First non-DAB call of the winter? Must be feeling good about this one. I think there were a few non DAB over/under calls, but besides that...yep.Not optimistic, but realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm just messing, I'm not worried about temps...we'll go to mix of freezing drizzle but that will be in garbage time at the end. Obviously QPF is going to be meager this far northeast. I'd be most concerned about model QPF being virga. Prabably 90% virga for me. By the time the column saturates the dry slot will be moving in from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Tom Skilling posted this on facebook. I would love to see the H5 charts to see the kind of vort track that produced this. Now I know this is not happening. But I will say I won't be surprised if central Missouri even into South Central MO gets 6-8 inches. I think I will see 70/30 Snow/Sleet or higher towards mostly snow. Given the time of day, time of year that doesn't help, but this air-mass is pretty damn cold, pwats are decent, lift is very strong, ground will be frozen. This is a tough one. One thing is for sure. We may see some freezing drizzle at the end, but ZR is not happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Look like DVN pulled the trigger for a winter storm watch for cycloneville west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I know it's early, but I'm throwing 2.0" IMBY...Past few SREF runs have had anything from 5" to nearly 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Look like DVN pulled the trigger for a winter storm watch for cycloneville west It looks to be the best storm for him this winter. NAM taking the southern route still. North-central KS to the Quad Cities looks really good at this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I am going with 1.8 for MBY and 2.2 at ORD. Snow is supposed to decrease from NW to SE, so, being where I am located, I think 1.8" is just about right. ORD is about 7 or 8 miles due north of me, so they will see a bit more up that way. Farther NW they will see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z GFS is a little wetter than some of the meager runs from the past day, 3-4" for MSN. Could see a winter weather advisory if that's the case. Lamest aspect at this point is all the good snows happen between midnight and sunrise, but timing always changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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