SoCoWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Anyone have any ideas on Spring 2013 for the region? Are we looking at an early Spring? Post your thoughts here. Personally, I'm rooting for a mild, dry Spring. But what does everyone else think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Anyone have any ideas on Spring 2013 for the region? Are we looking at an early Spring? Post your thoughts here. Personally, I'm rooting for a mild, dry Spring. But what does everyone else think? I think March (at least the first half) is trending colder than normal. Not looking like an early spring like last year. Winter chill is going to hang on for a while longer. Beyond that, not sure where we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Anyone have any ideas on Spring 2013 for the region? Are we looking at an early Spring? Post your thoughts here. Personally, I'm rooting for a mild, dry Spring. But what does everyone else think? I noticed you put severe wx tags on this thread - all severe talk should go in the already existing 2013 severe season thread - other talk I guess now belongs here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Happy first day of Met Spring! I don't know if such things exist, but similar to fall foliage maps, are there any "spring foliage," or "first springing" maps anywhere? Can someone post one, if so? I'm wondering, on average, when there first leafing out of trees occurs here in southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I've seen scientific papers discussing "green up". You can see it on MODIS imagery quite nicely as this link demonstrates. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8047 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 I've seen scientific papers discussing "green up". You can see it on MODIS imagery quite nicely as this link demonstrates. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8047 Very cool. So, for example, my town has a renaissance faire every April. By the middle of April last year, everything was nice and leafed out. Last April was very warm though. But in a normal April, vegetation would only just be getting going by that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Last year was very early. The study of earlier greening up is ongoing as relates to climate change. I recall seeing one picture from the mid 1800s in the Boston area...it was early-May and the trees weren't even budding. That was apparently typical. They bud and leaf out several weeks earlier now. Thoreau's journal from Walden Pond is still used as the best reference for budding/leafing/flowering in the mid 1800s in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 i think it's fairly regular over the short term tho temps are more important than fall with leaf change where that's largely just light. down here you can't battle climo too well past the beginning of march though. from year to year i see things bud almost the exact same time.. last yr was early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I recall seeing one picture from the mid 1800s in the Boston area...it was early-May and the trees weren't even budding. That was apparently typical. That would be freaking miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Time to start stalking the models looking for warmth. Probably won't find that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ji said huge legit -NAO in long range GFS yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 Ji said huge legit -NAO in long range GFS yesterday.. Hm. As I've said in two other threads...for where I live anyway (SE Va), the extended is showing qutie a few 60's over the next couple of weeks, with even a day or two of 70+. Otherwise, it looks average...50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Is the entire month of March going to be cool? Not interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 My spring outlook is a pattern flip. As soon as we go past any chance at snow it will flip cold/wet warm/dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I miss spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Looks like Spring might finally come by the first week of April....maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 According to what? GFS and GEFS look cold out to 384hrs and the CFSv2 is apparently quite cold through Week 4. Not sure about the Euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Mike Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 According to what? GFS and GEFS look cold out to 384hrs and the CFSv2 is apparently quite cold through Week 4. Not sure about the Euro weeklies. Weeklies were cold/coolish with a trough in the east through the second week of April. Week 3 was showing some signs of more zonal flow. Brett Anderson from AccuWx elaborates here: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/any-signs-of-spring-1/8644661 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 According to what? GFS and GEFS look cold out to 384hrs and the CFSv2 is apparently quite cold through Week 4. Not sure about the Euro weeklies. AccuNever uses the GFS to create their weekly and extended forecasts, if I recall correctly. It's been showing 60's and then eventually 70's returning by April for a while now. But like I said...people don't joke about it being "accunever" for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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