Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[IsentropicLift]

The Euro is much improved for the early March threat as well. The energy wraps in just a tad late. Strong low pressure sitting about 50-75 miles east of the benchmark at 204 hours. Eastern New England cashing in this run.

[Zir0b]

The Euro is much improved for the early March threat as well. The energy wraps in just a tad late. Strong low pressure sitting about 50-75 miles east of the benchmark at 204 hours. Eastern New England cashing in this run.

Seems similar to the 12z ggem then 

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 216, sub 988 low about 100 miles NE of Cape Cod beginning to retrograde.

[Edge Weather]

Well, at least we have something to watch now.  The time range from Tuesday on now looks very interesting.  Especially with the evolution of that 500mb low undercutting the storm, then the block holding things in place.  If more energy come around the base of that trough for the end of next week, this would get very interesting.  Details will remain in question for several days but the potential for next week is definitely there.  Tremendous blocking. 

[Edge Weather]

Wow, that deep low DID happen and it has a 976mb retrograding back into New England.  Insane run.  Man oh man, what potential!

[IsentropicLift]

New England getting hammered as the system retrogrades. Massive blizzard for Boston hrs 216-222. 

[Dsnowx53]

The pattern is simply loaded in the long range. Wow. Boston gets crushed at 222 hours as the low begins to retrograde. There actually appear to be a few similarities to 2/26/10 in the long range, just perhaps shifted a bit. 

[Kaner587]

And at 228 energy is diving on the backside of the trough and looks like it may dig to the GOM for a time

[Edge Weather]

The dynamics would be incredible with the 26th threat. Huge closed off H5 low to our south with insane amounts of positive vorticity advection. 

 

I still don't love the "block" for that setup, as the positive heights to the north do just seem to be a ridge. However, it's not an awful look as that ULL to the northeast does a lot of the work. 

 

I'm intrigued but still very cautious, obviously. 

 

Yes, I mean verbatim, this drops like 12-18 inches from Rt. 80 North. 

[IsentropicLift]

The Euro is 2.0"+ QPF for everyone from hours 120-240. Most of that frozen, especially NW of the city.

[Zir0b]

oh so close... what a ridiculous looking pattern....i can say one thing for sure...the model mayhem with this upcoming pattern is going to be wild 

[IsentropicLift]

The setup in place at hr 240 is almost enough to put a tear to your eye. Massive PNA ridge out west with 540 db heights extending all the way down to the gulf of Mexico.

[bluewave]

The pattern is simply loaded in the long range. Wow. Boston gets crushed at 222 hours as the low begins to retrograde. There actually appear to be a few similarities to 2/26/10 in the long range, just perhaps shifted a bit. 

 

It's funny that I posted that map earlier showing what needed to happen for good result here.

[Dsnowx53]

Also, considering wavelengths get shorter in March, we might be able to fight off the progressive regime, somewhat. 

[Kaner587]

It's funny that I posted that map earlier showing what needed to happen for good result here.

Haha yup it must've read your mind? There's probably more trending to be had but no guarantee its in our favor. That block though means business

[Edge Weather]

Just checked surface temps and they are really warm, so I don't know how much of this would really be snow, but it is too early to get into details anyway.

[Dsnowx53]

It's funny that I posted that map earlier showing what needed to happen for good result here.

 

 

Ha, I missed that. Exhausting day yesterday so I'm really just catching up now. I'll look now. But I'm glad to see we both saw the similarities there...good to have us both on somewhat of the same page. 

[IsentropicLift]

The big difference between the GFS and the Euro I can see regarding the 26th storm is that the Euro begins the transfer at 120 hours while the storm is in Southern Illinois. The GFS begins the transfer at hour 111 with the primary over Lake Michigan. So the GFS is quicker with the progression of the primary and thus it's further north when the transfer begins.

[bluewave]

Haha yup it must've read your mind? There's probably more trending to be had but no guarantee its in our favor. That block though means business

 

Euro freebies today...

 

 

 

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

Just checked surface temps and they are really warm, so I don't know how much of this would really be snow, but it is too early to get into details anyway.

Hour 144 is snow for anyone from the city northward. Very heavy precip over the area with temps beginning to crash.

[Edge Weather]

Soundings look like snow in the typical areas north of 80 and west of 287 roughly.  with precip of around 1.7 roughly, although it would be a wet snow with temps in the mid 30's. 

[bluewave]

The big difference between the GFS and the Euro I can see regarding the 26th storm is that the Euro begins the transfer at 120 hours while the storm is in Southern Illinois. The GFS begins the transfer at hour 111 with the primary over Lake Michigan. So the GFS is quicker with the progression of the primary and thus it's further north when the transfer begins.

 

The Euro really digs the energy more at 120 setting up the pattern beyond that. 

 

 

[Edge Weather]

Hour 144 is snow for anyone from the city northward. Very heavy precip over the area with temps beginning to crash.

 

Too early to really get into details, but surface temps at Caldwell for instance are showing in the upper 30's. 

[IsentropicLift]

Soundings look like snow in the typical areas north of 80 and west of 287 roughly.  with precip of around 1.7 roughly, although it would be a wet snow with temps in the mid 30's. 

Verbatim a wet paste bomb of 6-12" for the higher elevations. Vernon and Hewitt would do great in this setup.

[Edge Weather]

The big difference between the GFS and the Euro I can see regarding the 26th storm is that the Euro begins the transfer at 120 hours while the storm is in Southern Illinois. The GFS begins the transfer at hour 111 with the primary over Lake Michigan. So the GFS is quicker with the progression of the primary and thus it's further north when the transfer begins.

 

I think the big difference here is the 500mb low undercutting the storm.  The GFS did not do that. In fact the Euro has a completely different evolution here.

[IsentropicLift]

Too early to really get into details, but surface temps at Caldwell for instance are showing in the upper 30's. 

I agree, too early for details, but that is some very heavy precip. If it's ever going to snow here with low over SE PA this would be it.

[IsentropicLift]

I think the big difference here is the 500mb low undercutting the storm.  The GFS did not do that. In fact the Euro has a completely different evolution here.

Agreed, you can really see how much the Euro digs as opposed to the GFS.

[Edge Weather]

Verbatim a wet paste bomb of 6-12" for the higher elevations. Vernon and Hewitt would do great in this setup.

 

Yes, and then it is still snowing on Thursday morning and shows another 2-3 inches over night on Wednesday as this thing never goes away. 

[bluewave]

Too early to really get into details, but surface temps at Caldwell for instance are showing in the upper 30's. 

 

Sussex county looks like it does well on this run with a very strong easterly flow coastal sections.

[PB GFI]

With the NAO forecasted to be between 2 and 3 standard deviations below normal and with such a strong block,you really can set up a scenario with retrograding low after retrograding low .

Time will tell at what Lattitude these centers come north too before they try and spin back before looping out  .

 

The set up looks good enough that we may be able to pull out 2 systems inside a 48 hour period , with only a small break in between .

I would much rather hav 1 super charged slow moving system , than splitting the energy into 2  surface features , sometimes the leader finds a way to gum up the trough axis for the follower .

 

Plenty of time to sort detes .