Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[Edge Weather]

This run of the EC is looking very interesting for Tuesday.  Very different with the 500mb low undercutting the storm this time.

[Allsnow]

Looks like it will run the apps

[bluewave]

Hr 120 transfer going on in se states. Very strong cad signal. Primary is in southern IL

 

The 540 thickness is all the way to Albany at 120.

[Kaner587]

At 132 the closed 500mb low is over eastern Kentucky as compared to 00z over central Illinois for the same time frame. Quite the shift...

[Edge Weather]

Heavy snow North of Rt. 80 on this run.  at 138 hrs.

[Edge Weather]

HEAVY SNOW OVER THE CITY AT 144 HRS.  THE 850'S CRASH

[Kaner587]

At 144 there is a lot of precip with 850's below zero although BL would be crap with 32 degree line up to southern ulster cty and over NE pa. But at the minimum and wet snow bomb for some of the burbs. If this trended south east an additional 100 miles we'd be more than in business over jere

[Allsnow]

Looks like it stalls and occludes south of out lat. heavy wet snow nnj hr 144 odd set up

[Kaner587]

HEAVY SNOW OVER THE CITY AT 144 HRS. THE 850'S CRASH

Heavy precip...whether its all snow it's hard to say. Probably mostly rain with wet snow mixed in. Great trend though if its for real

[Allsnow]

The 540 thickness is all the way to Albany at 120.

850 and surface south of NYC

[rossi]

850 and surface south of NYC

How far south?

 

Rossi

[Edge Weather]

At 144 there is a lot of precip with 850's below zero although BL would be crap with 32 degree line up to southern ulster cty and over NE pa. But at the minimum and wet snow bomb for some of the burbs. If this trended south east an additional 100 miles we'd be more than in business over jere

 

If this scenario were to verify, I don't think the boundary layer would be a problem with that intensity of precipitation.  Of course, this may not happen at all, but with that 500mb low undercutting the storm, this has potential for sure.

[IsentropicLift]

12z Euro is a very heavy and very wet front end thump. 850 freezing line never really makes it further north than I-80 before crashing towards the coast. Surface is warm but massive hit at 144hrs for everyone.

[Allsnow]

How far south?

Rossi

It warms after that. Verbatim it's a nnj snowstorm

[Edge Weather]

How far south?

 

Rossi

 

only area about at 850 is a wedge from Edison to Asbury Park.  Strange situation.  Details don't matter at this point.  The whole evolution has changed for the better. 

[Edge Weather]

12z Euro is a very heavy and very wet front end thump. 850 freezing line never really makes it further north than I-80 before crashing towards the coast. Surface is warm but massive hit at 144hrs for everyone.

 

Yes, you can see that all upper levels are very cold, even though surface temps are warm, that is most likely snow at 144 hrs.  At least some heavy snow at the end anyway.

[Kaner587]

By comparing 00z vs 12z you can see what happened. The s/w over the NW came in much stronger for 12z which is good for 2 reasons...it forces the initial threat further south and east (hence the possibility we see some snow) and 2nd it sets the stage for our next threat. The problem will be with that ULL overhead nothing will be able to turn the corner. So we may have to bank on feb 26-27th pulling a miracle close to what the euro shows (se maybe 50-100 miles)

[Allsnow]

Light wrap around weenie snow on the euro all day wed

[Edge Weather]

And it is still snowing lightly at 168 hrs as the block is in place and this stalls.

[Kaner587]

That is one weenie block we got up there by 174.

Still snowing lightly

[bullfr2121]

All it does is blow up every storm..every day since january, 123abc posts about how it has a 968mb low just east of AC 

 

 

Exactly...all hype and nothing happens...yes, we got 1 storm...but the other 30 never happened or kept getting pushed out and pushed out

[Zir0b]

looks similar to 2/25-26, 2010

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/25-Feb-10-500MillibarMaps.html

[Edge Weather]

Storm is starting to brew along the southeast coast at 180 hrs.  This may be about to get interesting.  Light snow still falling.

[Allsnow]

Woof on the euro

[Edge Weather]

I don't know if it will pop a big storm here for next Friday, but if anymore energy come around that trough, look out.  This is an amazing setup.

[Allsnow]

We get light snow on the euro for 3 days verbatim lol.

[Kaner587]

There is arguably no sustained break in snow between 144 and 192.

[Kaner587]

The 12z euro 500mb anomaly maps will probably be in the "epic" territory for northern Florida and Georgia. 540 heights almost to the Gulf of Mexico

[Kaner587]

Snow finally about to shut off at 204

[Dsnowx53]

The dynamics would be incredible with the 26th threat. Huge closed off H5 low to our south with insane amounts of positive vorticity advection. 

 

I still don't love the "block" for that setup, as the positive heights to the north do just seem to be a ridge. However, it's not an awful look as that ULL to the northeast does a lot of the work. 

 

I'm intrigued but still very cautious, obviously.