Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[Weathergun]

I think dynamical models might be slow and weak with the MJO  Such as they did in late Jan and early Feb. The statistical models are stronger and faster MJO progression. If the CA model is true, we will looking at the MJO moves in phases 7 and 8 around March 5th or so. Euro ensemble mean at day 10, looks more closer to phase 8 in March:  :

 

 

[Edge Weather]

Control run of the Euro again has a strong storm but this time it takes a different track and not as good for us.  This time it consolidates the low over the Delmarva and bombs it out as a 994mb at 204 hrs, then at 210 hrs deepens it to 984mb and retrogrades it back to Dover, Delaware, then at 216 hrs it deepens it to 982mbs and continues to retrograde back to Harrisburg, PA, where it sits and spins until it dies out and slides east while dying out until around 282-300 hrs.  Unfortunately, this track would produce more rain with us until it started to fill in, then it would be snow showers.  Anyway, still a very strong signal for a very strong, slow moving or stalling out storm somewhere nearby.  Should be interesting.

[Edge Weather]

The big difference between the Control run and the operational run is that the Control run continues to have a strong shortwave moving east from Texas.  This is the shortwave that it consolidates with the low over the Great Lakes to produce the phased system over the Delmarva that it retrogrades back into Pennsylvania.  The Canadian, the JMA, and the NOGAPS also have this shortwave over Texas. 

[bluewave]

Yeah agree, i really don't see a warmup until after about the first week of March. Maybe even longer than that who knows? I heard the euro weeklies were blocky for a good part of March

 

Yeah,the models are in pretty good agreement that March will start off on the colder side here with the coldest anomalies

relative to the means over the Southeast.

 

[Kaner587]

that block on the 18z gfs means BUSINESS. It literally forces the 204-228h storm to retrograde into maine lol

[Kaner587]

doesn't actually look too dissimilar to the euro. I saw on the analogs that feb 69 is on there...there was that infamous 5-6 storm up in the new england that month. Both the euro and GFS would produce a situation like that for new england if they are to be believed.

[CooL]

Major potential on the GFS from March 1st on..

[bluewave]

that block on the 18z gfs means BUSINESS. It literally forces the 204-228h storm to retrograde into maine lol

 

Impressive blocking signal on the Euro ensembles with 300+ meter anomalies showing up.

 

[PB GFI]

The control run looks nothing like its ensembles. When you look at the ensembles you wana lick you re chops , if you saw the control you would want to vomit. The control tucks every storm right on the coast and there's nothing but rain thru the next 10 days out of 3 systems. Kudos to the GFS with ths weekends system. It was right in its analysis of a warmer closer in system. It beat the Euro and the control with it.

[pazzo83]

The control run looks nothing like its ensembles. When you look at the ensembles you wana lick you re chops , if you saw the control you would want to vomit. The control tucks every storm right on the coast and there's nothing but rain thru the next 10 days out of 3 systems. Kudos to the GFS with ths weekends system. It was right in its analysis of a warmer closer in system. It beat the Euro and the control with it.

Do we have any verification/accuracy stats on the control run?  It would seem it uses a whole different set of assumptions (as it is a control) than the op/ens runs.  

[CooL]

Do we have any verification/accuracy stats on the control run?  It would seem it uses a whole different set of assumptions (as it is a control) than the op/ens runs.  

 

 

All it does is blow up every storm..every day since january, 123abc posts about how it has a 968mb low just east of AC 

[pazzo83]

All it does is blow up every storm..every day since january, 123abc posts about how it has a 968mb low just east of AC 

Doing some research (and mets correct if wrong), it seems at least the GFS control run is the one ensemble member that uses the best initial analysis (I would assume the same with the Euro).  The other ensembles are derived from this run (via sensitivity-based runs, like alter one initial condition by x % etc).  Of course that would then mean the output would be predicated on the accuracy of the initial measurements throughout the world.

 

Does that sound right?

[bluewave]

The GFS ensembles give you a sense of the spread involved with the energy swinging around the base

of the main closed low too our west.

 

[PB GFI]

Do we have any verification/accuracy stats on the control run?  It would seem it uses a whole different set of assumptions (as it is a control) than the op/ens runs.  [/quotet

The only verification scores were taken out of london. And they were similar to the operational day 1 thru 7. All the control run is the operational run 50 x with diff starting data. So its guidance is ok closer

[Isotherm]

It's difficult to get me excited about a long range pattern, but this probably the most intrigued I've been since 2011 for a D5+ pattern. What's currently depicted on guidance is almost as ideal as one can get -- PNA surge w/ connection of high heights in Canada northeastward to near Greenland. We've got the unholy trio alliance of +PNA/-AO/-NAO, a GOA trough, and thus the downstream low height field in the East.

 

As I've said the past few days, the next couple storms are rain for NYC and will set the stage for a much more conducive regime feb 28-March 7th. Still liking the period around the beginning of March for an east coast low / cyclogenesis. Too far away for any concern with details, but I can say the pattern looks very ripe for a snow event. This is likely going to be the most favorable synoptic-set up we've seen all winter thus.

[Edge Weather]

What the Control run is great at doing is telling you whether there is a high likelihood that the operational run will be stable, or is likely to change, as often they are very similar. When they differ greatly, as they currently do, it tells you how much variance is still likely with the operational run.

[MJO812]

CPC

 

[WintersGrasp]

I'm hoping we end with a doozie ! Altogether it wouldn't be a bad winter if we did. Heck, we already got a 12 inches so its not bad anyway

[pazzo83]

The only verification scores were taken out of london. And they were similar to the operational day 1 thru 7. All the control run is the operational run 50 x with diff starting data. So its guidance is ok closer

That makes sense, so they control for different inputs.

[West Milford Highlander]

All it does is blow up every storm..every day since january, 123abc posts about how it has a 968mb low just east of AC

Lol - classic

[Allsnow]

Gfs looks real interesting for early next week

[Allsnow]

Takes a track over us, it has cooled off alot. Something to watch

[SnoSki14]

Takes a track over us, it has cooled off alot. Something to watch

I've said we shouldn't just throw away this storm, it could be more interesting than we assume, the evolution with the primary and coastal remains iffy but the gfs took a huge step in the right direction.

[leemhoc]

What did gfs show for the march 1st threat?

[Storm At Sea]

00z GFS and 12z Euro both point towards my biggest worry all along which happened a week or two before the blizzard...trough axis is about 200-300 miles too far east, keeping us high and dry.

 

What did gfs show for the march 1st threat?

[MJO812]

The ull in the Midwest hurt our chances of a big storm on the GFS.

[Edge Weather]

All it does is blow up every storm..every day since january, 123abc posts about how it has a 968mb low just east of AC 

 

Posts like this add no value.  No, it does not do as you said at all.  It is just, why would I post all the times it showed virtually nothing, like it does this morning?  There is a good discussion in this thread of what the Control run is, and how it is useful.  All we know is that we have a relatively favorable pattern, we just need a storm now in the right place at the right time.  Will we get that, who knows?  Apparently the Control run has pretty good verification scores according to PB GFI, and then it is usufull in that it extends the Euro out past 240 hrs.  At least it shows storms, unlike the NOGAPS that almost never produces storms anywhere.  And as far as I remember, the last time it showed a bombing low just off shore of NJ it actually happened, so if it requires the model to show that 3 times to produce one that actually happens, then I hope 2 more come real quick. 

[MJO812]

Whitch storm snow88???

March 1-3 storm

[rcad1]

Not good!! But im sure it will change 100 more times.. Anything on the Feb 26 storm?

[bluewave]

It's continuing to look like that this will favor eastern sections of Long Island up into New England like

most of our storms this season. The cutoff is modeled too far east for us when the energy rounds

the base of the trough and a low forms off the MA and heads NNE. We would need the models

to shift the UL further west over time for areas near NYC to get into the game.