Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[IsentropicLift]

I didn't see this mentioned anywhere so I'll comment on the 12z GEFS ensembles. Lots of major storms on the individual members. Some of them delayed till the 300hr period. Some big wrapped up rain solutions and some way out to sea. A few blizzards mixed in as well.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html

[IsentropicLift]

Things get going too far east for us on this run which we have seen quite a bit this year so far.

 

12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

 

 

But a real beauty of a block if this can come further west in future runs.

 

12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif

The overall synoptic eveolution of the Euro is not conducive for an east coast storm. To have any chance at all, the blocking/cut off low needs to setup further west towards Chicago. Our only chance is that of a classic Miller A where the low gets going down in the gulf before rounding the corner. That garbage low that forms way OTS is just that, garbage.

[bluewave]

The GEFS have backed off on the blocking signal already since the 00z run, and the mean trough in the Northeast underneath the block sets up pretty far east similar to the one we saw earlier this year.

 

The energy dropping down behind the cutoff over the Lakes and the retrograding block should make for some interesting

models runs over the next week or so.

[bluewave]

The overall synoptic eveolution of the Euro is not conducive for an east coast storm. To have any chance at all, the blocking/cut off low needs to setup further west towards Chicago. Our only chance is that of a classic Miller A where the low gets going down in the gulf before rounding the corner. That garbage low that forms way OTS is just that, garbage.

 

I would probably lean more on the euro ensemble mean at this point with so many complexities to yet be worked out.

Models have a difficult time with multiple pieces of energy under retrograding blocks. But the danger in this pattern

is that it turns into a New England special with things too far east.

[IsentropicLift]

I would probably lean more on the euro ensemble mean at this point with so many complexities to yet be worked out.

I'm curious to see what the 00z Euro ensembles showed. I posted earlier asking how they turned out but nobody responded. In any event, plenty of time to monitor this. Still a big storm signal 10+ days out. When you factor in that I'll be in Florida from February 27th to March 3rd you can pretty much lockup a HECS for that time period.

[Weathergun]

Keep an eye on the MJO, it might not die as quickly as we thought:

 

[bluewave]

I'm curious to see what the 00z Euro ensembles showed. I posted earlier asking how they turned out but nobody responded. In any event, plenty of time to monitor this. Still a big storm signal 10+ days out. When you factor in that I'll be in Florida from February 27th to March 3rd you can pretty much lockup a HECS for that time period.

 

They looked pretty close in track to the Op run, but it's still a ways out for such a complex set up.

 

[IsentropicLift]

Keep an eye on the MJO, it might not die as quickly as we thought:

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Adam in the Philly forum was talking about how with the current MJO forecast the PNA spike makes no sense. If the MJO comes out of the COD in phase 5 it will be an early Spring.

[Edge Weather]

Guys, I really think all we need on the Euro is a shortwave to round that base, which prior runs had and this run does not.  If that happens, it will get stuck under the block and we are in business. As stated by YanksFan27 in a prior post, the individual ensemble members show a strong signal for an intense Nor'easter at the beginning of the month.  Details however remain very much in question. 

[IsentropicLift]

Guys, I really think all we need on the Euro is a shortwave to round that base, which prior runs had and this run does not.  If that happens, it will get stuck under the block and we are in business. 

What does your infamous control run show today?

[Edge Weather]

What does your infamous control run show today?

 

Not out until between 4:30-5:00.  This was just posted by ORHweatherman in the New England forum:

 

Feb 2010, Mar 2010, Mar 2001, Feb 1969, Mar 1984, Mar 1993....its like a who's who of monster late season patterns...if you take that 2010 pattern and adjust it colder (which the upcoming pattern will be), that is epic for us

[bluewave]

Guys, I really think all we need on the Euro is a shortwave to round that base, which prior runs had and this run does not.  If that happens, it will get stuck under the block and we are in business. As stated by YanksFan27 in a prior post, the individual ensemble members show a strong signal for an intense Nor'easter at the beginning of the month.  Details however remain very much in question. 

 

That's a very tricky for the models to resolve from over a week out. 

 

 

 

[Edge Weather]

Analogs.  My initial thread started over the weekend, I had centered the threat on March 2nd.  Interesting. 

[Kaner587]

Analogs.

Those were some amazing patterns in there

[CooL]

Adam in the Philly forum was talking about how with the current MJO forecast the PNA spike makes no sense. If the MJO comes out of the COD in phase 5 it will be an early Spring.

 

The +PNA and -NAO is on every model and ensemble

 

What this tells me is maybe there is more to it than the MJO

 

This would be a pretty major bust if there was no +PNA in the next 15 days

 

[bluewave]

The +PNA and -NAO is on every model and ensemble

 

What this tells me is maybe there is more to it than the MJO

 

This would be a pretty major bust if there was no +PNA in the next 15 days

 

 

I think that if the MJO comes back into 5-6 , then it would probably take until after the first week of March to see a warm up.

But that is very uncertain being so far out in time.

[Edge Weather]

JMA at 192 hrs looks like it would be setting up for a doozy, as it has a strong shortwave moving in through Texas and along the Western Gulf Coast.  And speaking of that, how about the NOGAPS at 180 hrs?

[IsentropicLift]

The +PNA and -NAO is on every model and ensemble

 

What this tells me is maybe there is more to it than the MJO

 

This would be a pretty major bust if there was no +PNA in the next 15 days

 

Alot of the mets over there were arguing that it would have to be a pretty major bust by the modeling if we didn't end up with a +PNA. Adam was simply pointing out that it wasn't supported by the MJO.

[SnoSki14]

Great things happen when you have a massive -NAO block and a +PNA so I'm very confident there's going to be a huge event. There could actually be an event during the negative NAO and also when it transitions to positive, something we saw back in late October/early Nov with Sandy and the snowstorm. 

[IsentropicLift]

So we're going to have an early spring with a massive block in place? Sure I believe that 

You obviously missed the point of the post. Adam was questioning where the PNA was coming from considering that the MJO is forecasted to be unfavorable.

[SnoSki14]

Looks like the op. Massive meh.

 

It's over 200 hrs out, so what if it's too far east right now. Even if it showed a hit I wouldn't really pay attention to it because it's over 10 days out. 

[SnoSki14]

You obviously missed the point of the post. Adam was questioning where the PNA was coming from considering that the MJO is forecasted to be unfavorable.

 

 

Ok you're right, but doesn't a Phase 5 in March correlate with colder weather. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/FMA/combined_image.png

[IsentropicLift]

It's over 200 hrs out, so what if it's too far east right now. Even if it showed a hit I wouldn't really pay attention to it because it's over 10 days out. 

It gets more credit when it matches the op.

[Snowshack]

Of course, as has been pointed out a few times already, whats good for New England is not necessarily good for us.  Especially true in winter's waning months.

[MJO812]

It gets more credit when it matches the op.

Not when it's 200 hours out. Hopefully the + PNA verifies.

[Edge Weather]

From meteorologist CoastaWX:   Euro ensembles are amazing..lol.

 

From ORHWxman:  Worthy of holding Bryce up to the street light during heavy snow like the Lion King.  The Feb 26-27 system continues to get a bit more interesting...I'm not counting on it for a huge amount of snow, but a messy snow to mix/rain back to snow type deal might make it so its not a net loss on the snow pack or a very small amount. Could be interesting as we get closer.
The timeframe after that just looks awesome.

[CooL]

I think that if the MJO comes back into 5-6 , then it would probably take until after the first week of March to see a warm up.

But that is very uncertain being so far out in time.

 

Yeah agree, i really don't see a warmup until after about the first week of March. Maybe even longer than that who knows? I heard the euro weeklies were blocky for a good part of March

[Weathergun]

Ok you're right, but doesn't a Phase 5 in March correlate with colder weather. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/FMA/combined_image.png

 

Were on the northern periphery of strong SE ridge according this composite:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/MarchPhase5500mbAnomalies.gif

[CooL]

From meteorologist CoastaWX:   Euro ensembles are amazing..lol.

 

From ORHWxman:  Worthy of holding Bryce up to the street light during heavy snow like the Lion King.  The Feb 26-27 system continues to get a bit more interesting...I'm not counting on it for a huge amount of snow, but a messy snow to mix/rain back to snow type deal might make it so its not a net loss on the snow pack or a very small amount. Could be interesting as we get closer.

The timeframe after that just looks awesome.

 

We are at the range where you can't take each run verbatim and lay out the details. The west based blocking and the +PNA continue to show up, with a massive trough over the east. Early March holds massive potential

[MJO812]

Yeah agree, i really don't see a warmup until after about the first week of March. Maybe even longer than that who knows? I heard the euro weeklies were blocky for a good part of March

Euro weeklies showed a nice - NAO with a + PNA but not a sustained one.