Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[Kaner587]

That mar 2001 map is eerie to look at. Funny how far south and east it was modeled on the GFS 3-4 days out. Even though it was mostly a miss for us I'd gladly take a gamble with a similar set up to that, with the hope of an earlier phase

[Zir0b]

3 cut off lows over the midwest in a row...that SE ridge connecting with the -NAO just kills us 

[bluewave]

That mar 2001 map is eerie to look at. Funny how far south and east it was modeled on the GFS 3-4 days out. Even though it was mostly a miss for us I'd gladly take a gamble with a similar set up to that, with the hope of an earlier phase

 

That was so close to being really big here, but everything was just a little too far east for us to cash in.

The Euro has the closed low signal in the long range, we just need it positioned far enough west.

 

 

[MJO812]

3 cut off lows over the midwest in a row...that SE ridge connecting with the -NAO just kills us 

 

Yes. GGEM is inland while the GFS is OTS lol. Still over 200 hours away though.

[SnoSki14]

Yes. GGEM is inland while the GFS is OTS lol. Still over 200 hours away though.

 

It's far more likely to be further east than west with the strong block in place, but at 200+ hrs, it's still a fantasy forecast at this point. 

[IsentropicLift]

It's far more likely to be further east than west with the strong block in place, but at 200+ hrs, it's still a fantasy forecast at this point. 

I'm very curious to see what the Euro does coming up shortly as it usually has a bias of holding back energy and being less progressive than the GFS.

[CooL]

It's far more likely to be further east than west with the strong block in place, but at 200+ hrs, it's still a fantasy forecast at this point.

Agreed. And so far the ggem has the same biases it had before the upgrade from what I've seen

[bluewave]

Agreed. And so far the ggem has the same biases it had before the upgrade from what I've seen

 

The GGEM daily scores have still have been lagging behind the other globals. It finished only a little

better than the NOGAPS with the weekend Noreaster.

[ace0927]

We know the GFS is going to be too far east in this set up, but we need the Euro and ensembles

to get far enough west for us to be competitive here. The GFS always had the March 2001

threat too far offshore like during the past blizzard. That was the last snowy analog date that

matches up with early March forecast. 

 

20010301f132.gif

 

 

We know the GFS is going to be too far east in this set up, but we need the Euro and ensembles

to get far enough west for us to be competitive here. The GFS always had the March 2001

threat too far offshore like during the past blizzard. That was the last snowy analog date that

matches up with early March forecast. 

 

20010301f132.gif

oooh man - those maps bring back some memories! havent seen those in at least decade.

[Kaner587]

oooh man - those maps bring back some memories! havent seen those in at least decade.

Go on ewall and look at the reanalysis maps so fascinating to watch how it unfolded and what potential was truly available

[earthlight]

Go on ewall and look at the reanalysis maps so fascinating to watch how it unfolded and what potential was truly available

 

Still one of my favorite h5 maps of all time, despite the bad end result.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2001/030503.png

[Kaner587]

Still one of my favorite h5 maps of all time, despite the bad end result.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2001/030503.png

Ya that is just epic...shift the major features 100miles SW and its a DC to BOS BECS lol (well at least PHL to BOS)

[IsentropicLift]

For the 26th threat and beyond, Euro is about to cut off the low at hr 132 over eastern Kansas.

 

Edit, not cut off yet at hr 138. Low near St. Louis.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 144, sub 996 low moving towards Chicago.

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 150, big low still setup in central Illinois. Energy diving down the backside.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 156 low is beginning to occlude right over Chicago. Energy still diving down the back side. Heights are really high along the coast. Hints of a secondary forming in South Carolina.

[CIK62]

Go on ewall and look at the reanalysis maps so fascinating to watch how it unfolded and what potential was truly available

ACCUWEATHER in NYC was calling for 30" in a 60 hour period.    I only remember one burst of snow, probably on Sunday evening with  maybe 5.5" accumulating.    Most of this 60 hour period was just cloudy and foggy with on and off cold drizzle and a nasty feel to it.

[MJO812]

Sloppy mess at 162 hours. It doesn't even look like a secondary low on the coast.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 168, weak surface reflection off the mid-atlantic coast. Big low sitting over western Michigan.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 174 big cut off low sitting right over Lake Michigan. Quite a bit further west than the 12z GFS had it.

[IsentropicLift]

Rain

Who cares anyway, that's a non-event. I'm only worried about what downstream effects it will have for the next storm.

[Allsnow]

Why a modle pbp for a rain storm that's over a week away?

[IsentropicLift]

No big storm for the first week of March this run.

[IsentropicLift]

Why a modle pbp for a rain storm that's over a week away?

Nothing to do with the rain storm. The pbp was for the big noreaster around the first week of March and the threat around the 26th that's still up in the air.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 216 broad low pressure about 150 miles east of the benchmark. Throwing some snow back towards New England.

[IsentropicLift]

LOL

 

Rain on the GGEM and OTS on the GFS. Euro doesn't have anything.

The Euro has it, it's just weak, and way northeast. Nothing for us.

[IsentropicLift]

Initially I thought the Euro was coming way west but the energy took forever to dive in on the backside. Everything has enough time to slide eastward.

[ace0927]

Go on ewall and look at the reanalysis maps so fascinating to watch how it unfolded and what potential was truly available

 

 

Go on ewall and look at the reanalysis maps so fascinating to watch how it unfolded and what potential was truly available

i was talking about the actual maps, not the storm. But yes, that storm was a heart breaker. I remember Kocin on TWC saying 2-3 feet of snow for PHL-BOS...disaster

[bluewave]

Things get going too far east for us on this run which we have seen quite a bit this year so far.

 

 

 

But a real beauty of a block if this can come further west in future runs.

 

 

 

 

 

[earthlight]

Things get going too far east for us on this run which we have seen quite a bit this year so far.

 

The GEFS have backed off on the blocking signal already since the 00z run, and the mean trough in the Northeast underneath the block sets up pretty far east similar to the one we saw earlier this year.