Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[NEG NAO]

Sorry folks, the GGEM transfers the low over NYC, not New England

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=156

the 0Z ensembles were far southeast of the OP - where are they this run ?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

12z GGEM

I think at this point, this storm is unlikely to be a significant snowmaker for the NYC Metro Region. There is really no model suggesting it would be. The idea cannot be completely ruled out, but it is becoming more unlikely and the trends are not good for snowlovers right now.

WX/PT

[Allsnow]

The NAVGEM is closer to the Euro than the GFS through 120.

nvg10.500.120.namer.gif

Major snowstorm for NYC this run. Destroys us!

[bluewave]

The NAVGEM came north.

 

 

[earthlight]

I think at this point, this storm is unlikely to be a significant snowmaker for the NYC Metro Region. There is really no model suggesting it would be. The idea cannot be completely ruled out, but it is becoming more unlikely and the trends are not good for snowlovers right now.

WX/PT

 

I can't think of a setup 174 hours out that should be deemed "likely" to produce a significant snowstorm for our area.

[Kaner587]

I can't think of a setup 174 hours out that should be deemed "likely" to produce a significant snowstorm for our area.

And honestly the trends are in every which direction right now so who the heck knows. What's clear is there is no clear camp with this storm in the modeling thus far.

[earthlight]

Through 84 hours, the Euro is now dragging a significant piece of the ULL very far south over the Ohio Valley and then through the Mid Atlantic. Was not doing this on earlier runs..this falls more in line with the GFS' handling of that feature.

 

This feature being so far south and east means there will be less northern stream split over the Great Lakes and South-Central Canada to phase in with the vort coming out of the Pac. So if I was a betting man...I'd say this run trends towards the GFS idea.

[Edge Weather]

I think at this point, this storm is unlikely to be a significant snowmaker for the NYC Metro Region. There is really no model suggesting it would be. The idea cannot be completely ruled out, but it is becoming more unlikely and the trends are not good for snowlovers right now.

WX/PT

 

The Euro nor any other model picked up on the recent blizzard until 138 hrs out.

[earthlight]

The northern stream vort now becomes a cutoff low of its own instead of just a shortwave/vortmax. So this run will probably be wildly different from what we've been seeing on the long range Euro.

 

But there is now a big ULL spinning over/just East of New England. Which, in case you haven't been paying attention, is not good.

[earthlight]

The Euro still has this massive block building down from Eastern Canada through 114... so I can't say for sure where it's headed this run.

[Weathergun]

A little piece the ULL still split over the Great Lakes. It may try to still phase.

[earthlight]

Pretty bizarre setup at 132. Strong vort just north of the Great Lakes is stationary, big block to the north of it. Upper level low is now northeast of New England, and the Pac shortwave is swinging through the Central US trying to turn the corner and amplify. Not phasing yet.

[earthlight]

Phasing now at 150 hours. The Pac vort, which ran ahead, is digging all the way to the Gulf Coast. Surface low is very far south as a result...1008mb off the SC coas.t

[Dsnowx53]

The northern stream vort definitely made a nice jump to the SE towards our storm from 144 to 150. So, the phase is definitely beginning to take shape, and the confluence is trying to move out of the way. 

[earthlight]

1004mb surface low off the NC coast at 156 hours as the phase occurs...but very little room for this to come north and affect our area. The combination of the blocking and the upper level low means the entire pattern is pressing down pretty hard on this system. If the Euro is correct this is a prime pattern for a Southeast US cutoff low.

[Weathergun]

It's hard to see how this going to get far north. The block has already linked up the Midwest ridge at 156hrs.

[earthlight]

Rapidly deepening now at 162 as the phase occurs. Looks like 992-996mb sitting on OBX ..with the CCB hammering Easterm NC and the coastline (too warm for snow just glancing at 2m temps).

 

Again..way too far south for our area due to the blocking and the upper level low being farther south initially.

[Dsnowx53]

Yeah, the block was too strong and too west based, leaving too much confluence and resistance along the east coast.

[earthlight]

The Euro essentially looks similar to this..with a more broad CCB/precipitation shield.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f162.gif

[Dsnowx53]

The blocking orientation bothers me. I don't like seeing it oriented so far to the west. That will leave way too much confluence downstream of it, which is right off our coastline. That really needs to change. 

[Weathergun]

The blocking orientation bothers me. I don't like seeing it oriented so far to the west. That will leave way too much confluence downstream of it, which is right off our coastline. That really needs to change. 

 

I don't like it either. The 12z GEFS had the same thing:

 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I don't like it either. The 12z GEFS had the same thing:

 

 

12zGEFS.gif

 

I highly doubt that this will be the end result. Shorter Wavelengths+Dying Greenland Block=Further N&W track.

[ace0927]

those who bet the under on March snowfall in the NYC area are looking real solid right about now.

[MJO812]

those who bet the under on March snowfall in the NYC area are looking real solid right about now.

 

Nothing is set in stone just yet. Still have a couple of days to iron this out. We need to see changes though.

[ace0927]

Nothing is set in stone just yet. Still have a couple of days to iron this out. We need to see changes though.

 

 

Nothing is set in stone just yet. Still have a couple of days to iron this out. We need to see changes though.

we should probably ignore the fact that there isnt any real cold air around (for like the 10th time this winter season) also...

 

and for the 17th time this winter season the big -NAO advertised by the Euro in the 7-10 day frame won't and hasn't materialized...

[bmc10]

we should probably ignore the fact that there isnt any real cold air around (for like the 10th time this winter season) also...

 

and for the 17th time this winter season the big -NAO advertised by the Euro in the 7-10 day frame won't and hasn't materialized...

Are you paying any attention? It is the shear strength, size and position of the ubber neg nao and west based block that is preventing the northward progression of this system along with the ULL supressing hgts along the ec. The block is and will come to fruition. The airmass in advance of the system does not have to be "cold" (relative term) to produce snow. In this setup the phase would allow the cold to drain down from the northern stream, there is enough cold to be tapped. Factor in the explosive nature, cutoff, and dynamics and you can get snow.

[ace0927]

Are you paying any attention? It is the shear strength, size and position of the ubber neg nao and west based block that is preventing the northward progression of this system along with the ULL supressing hgts along the ec. The block is and will come to fruition. The airmass in advance of the system does not have to be "cold" (relative term) to produce snow. In this setup the phase would allow the cold to drain down from the northern stream, there is enough cold to be tapped. Factor in the explosive nature, cutoff, and dynamics and you can get snow.

 

 

Are you paying any attention? It is the shear strength, size and position of the ubber neg nao and west based block that is preventing the northward progression of this system along with the ULL supressing hgts along the ec. The block is and will come to fruition. The airmass in advance of the system does not have to be "cold" (relative term) to produce snow. In this setup the phase would allow the cold to drain down from the northern stream, there is enough cold to be tapped. Factor in the explosive nature, cutoff, and dynamics and you can get snow.

"I had a dream"....

 

This is not a block, If you think this is a snow storm h5 map you dont pay attention:

now here is the euro from 3.5 days ago...this is what I was talking about: This WILL NOT come too fruition: notice the real dual blocking justs south of Greenland and just north of alaska.

[PB GFI]

Since this SW is still 1000 miles south of the Aleutians and 6 days out  , I will refrain from throwing the threat away,until theres at least 1 West coast sampling and we are inside 96 hours .Hard to expect a goldilocks scenario 150  plus hours out .

 

Maybe it is an Atlanta to Roanoke special , but do you really wana go all in on that this far out  ?  I said 2 days ago I thought a  3 to 4 SD below normal in the NAO may not be to our benefit , but will wait until Monday to see if anything in the modeling takes on a different look .

 

Remember at 6 days out , if theres  the smallest  variable missed in any of the models initialization , it gets magnified downstream .

The GFS may be right in the end  but at 150 - 170 hrs away it really is outside its effective range , so I just cant look at it until we are inside 96 hours .

The Euro has really backed off , as has its control and the overnite ensembles .

It`s an uglier solution and that I will not deny .I will wait a few days until its on the grid to close the window  otherwise , at 150 hrs the spray stil gives you a shot .

[MJO812]

Here is the 12z Euro  ensemble mean

 

[bluewave]

The Euro ensembles are further north with the low this run than the OP.