Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[ace0927]

Not with great blocking and a nice PNA.

 

 

Not with great blocking and a nice PNA.

 

LOL....you think that is a guarantee for cold air??? Didnt we do this earlier in the season and you said the same exact thing? you were dumbfounded that the pattern didnt produce? if the cold air is trapped on the other side of the globe and there is no cross-polar flow the +pna/-nao means nada...and that is exactly what the euro shows at hr240

this looks pretty good on the surface (no pun intended)

 

[Edge Weather]

LOL - what about the other 100,000 snow storms it predicted this winter?

 

Every model has issues.  As I stated before, this model has nailed some of the big ones here.  That is what I am most interested in.  Of course, some won't materialize, but when it is not that far off from what the main operational model shows, it definitely is something to be interested in. 

[IsentropicLift]

This is the third storm.  We have the one this weekend, then the one on Tuesday night, then this one for next Thursday night through next weekend.

I'm referring to the early March storm of course. I could care less about the first two, they are going to be duds for this area. I have an awful feeling that I will end up stuck in Florida.

[mikemurph44]

I'm referring to the early March storm of course. I could care less about the first two, they are going to be duds for this area. I have an awful feeling that I will end up stuck in Florida.

As long as the mjo really goes into the circle of death, I think early march may really produce. It may, again may, be the first time this winter we have seen a west based -nao, -ao, -epo, and +pna all come together at the same time. There is also hints of possible cross polar flow, this could get very interesting, especially with the se ridge gone, no worry of lakes cutters....

[mikemurph44]

Just to add, the bad pacific side this winter, is the result of a neutral to cold neutral ENSO, the long term strong -PDO, and alot of unfavorable mjo waves minus the more favorable phases we have seen since early february. I think the qbo phase change from negative to positive and the last sudden stratospheric warming also helped us out this month along with the mjo

[cut]

Bottom line as I see it, there is a ton of POTENTIAL, of course we can't shovel or plow potential, or even ski on it, but we can talk about it and hope for it.  Back on track so I can read some properly formulated insights!!!!  Back to being a reader I go.

[Kaner587]

Lets reboot this.

Mid to long range pattern pros

Possible robust +PNA

West based -NAO

Potentially active STJ

Previous MJO wave either entering COD or entering colder/snowier phase

Cons

Sun angle (kidding)

Possible stale cold air source

Remnants of Nina pattern with dominant northern stream and progressive overall flow

MJO into COD could derail our active STJ

There we have it. Discuss

[Edge Weather]

We are losing our cold air source. So we will have to make do with this rotting air. It will only modify as the weeks go. The sooner the better for snow chances to the coast in the coming weeks

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

956 AM EST WED FEB 20 2013

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 23 2013 - 12Z WED FEB 27 2013

THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF THE SHORT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE

MEDIUM RANGE, WITH A SPLIT FLOW AFFORDING BOTH A STEADY SUPPLY OF

COLD AIR AND A TAP OF GULF MOISTURE TO SYSTEMS CROSSING THE

CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. IN TERMS OF WINTER WEATHER, LITTLE

CHANGE IN FORTUNE IS ANTICIPATED, WITH AREAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO

THE CENTRAL PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST THE MOST LIKELY

LOCATIONS CANDIDATES FOR SNOW AND ICE. THE MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD PROTECT THAT REGION, AS WELL AS MUCH OF

THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, FROM

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. NO WHOLESALE BREAKTHROUGH OF

THE WESTERLIES IS SLATED FOR THE PACIFIC COAST, SO THAT PROLIFIC

PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL BE CONTRAINDICATED THERE. RELIED

PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z/20 ECENS MEAN FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES

FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7, WITH THE LAST SEVERAL ECENS MEANS--AND BY

AND LARGE THE GEFS MEANS--SUPPORTIVE OF THE SYNOPTIC TALE TOLD BY

THE CURRENT SET OF MANUAL PROGS.

CISCO

[bluewave]

The analogs are suggesting a lot of potential, but the ones that didn't work out for us got going

too far east and New England did the best. The dates in the analog composite below are telling

you that someone on the East Coast can do very well depending on the timing of the different

pieces of energy in the northern and southern streams.

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

I'd rather have storms going a bit further east than cutting and flooding us with warm air any day.

[Edge Weather]

Plan of the Day

000

NOUS42 KNHC 191949

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0300 PM EST TUE 19 FEBRUARY 2013

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013

WSPOD NUMBER.....12-081 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS.....................(NO CHANGES)

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49..................(ADDED)

A. P14/ DROP 1 (51.5N 146.5W)/ 21/0000Z

B NOAA9 14WSC TRACK14M

C. 20/1930Z

D. 4 DROPS ON TRACK NORTH OF 50.0N EN ROUTE TO

PANC WITH FIRST AT ORIGINAL DROP POINT 4

E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 21/0600Z

F. MODIFIED TRACK FLOWN CLOCKWISE

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE ALASKAN

TRACK P22/ DROP 6 (57.0N 178.0W)/ 22/0000Z...(NO CHANGES)

$$

SEF

[bluewave]

I'd rather have storms going a bit further east than cutting and flooding us with warm air any day.

 

That was the difference between March 2010 and some of the other dates in the composite like March 2001.

[Allsnow]

These storms getting cutoff in the lakes are killing us. Wish they would just run under the block. Wash rinse repeat mid week.

[SnoSki14]

These storms getting cutoff in the lakes are killing us. Wish they would just run under the block. Wash rinse repeat mid week.

 

Just because that's what the models show now doesn't mean they will be correct and that includes the weekend storm. 

[IsentropicLift]

Eh the threat for the 26th time period is still there. Instead of the primary running into the block and transfering it forces the primary low south towards us while also popping a secondary, which it then tries to absorb. Not buying that solution.

[Kaner587]

The march 1 threat is so close on the GFS to something big. The cutoff over the northeast at 204 would need to be like 250 miles further northwest and were in business. As is the GFS may throw some precip our way

[Allsnow]

The march 1 threat is so close on the GFS to something big. The cutoff over the northeast at 204 would need to be like 250 miles further northwest and were in business. As is the GFS may throw some precip our way

At this point just need to keep the threat on the models

[Kaner587]

A ton of energy before truncation on the GFS. Northern stream diving in around 192 with cutoff over us. Well have to see pattern evolution but the looks isn't half bad sitting 8-9 days out

[Kaner587]

At this point just need to keep the threat on the models

Exactly. And you can see the west based block flex its muscles holding the cutoff over the NE

[Kaner587]

If the GFS is right we finish feb with some solid neg departures even if he snow chances don't pan out.

[Kaner587]

I will preface this by saying anything can change being that its so far out there. But the GFS has such a west based block oriented way too far SE soo everything develops too late and too Far East. Would be funny if we finally get the neg NAO we've been asking for but orientation is terrible for storm development and we end up high and dry, albeit quite cold

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS is about where you want to see it as far as the early March threat is concerned. You want that cut off low to retrograde back towards the lakes and we're in business.

[CooL]

Details don't matter right now

That setup is ripe for March 1

[Kaner587]

Details don't matter right now

That setup is ripe for March 1

Agreed

[CooL]

Agreed

After these 2 rainstorms the block gets fully established and the pna starts going wild. Just gotta get past the Rainers first

[IsentropicLift]

The GFS has another very potent southern stream wave moving into the southern plains at hour 384. The pattern remains very active well into the long range. I think we're in for a very active and wet March.

[SnoSki14]

After these 2 rainstorms the block gets fully established and the pna starts going wild. Just gotta get past the Rainers first

 

I still wouldn't say both events will be all rain, still curious about that 26th storm but things def get way better after the 2nd storm in terms of the overall pattern and true blocking and PNA ridging develop in tandem along with an active southern stream. 

[CooL]

I still wouldn't say both events will be all rain, still curious about that 26th storm but things def get way better after the 2nd storm in terms of the overall pattern and true blocking and PNA ridging develop in tandem along with an active southern stream.

They are both pretty bad setups for the NYC area. Not interested at all in them

[bluewave]

We know the GFS is going to be too far east in this set up, but we need the Euro and ensembles

to get far enough west for us to be competitive here. The GFS always had the March 2001

threat too far offshore like during the past blizzard. That was the last snowy analog date that

matches up with early March forecast. 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

They are both pretty bad setups for the NYC area. Not interested at all in them

 

I'm interested in the 26th storm. Maybe we can some front end thump.