Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[PB GFI]

 I usually associate further SE solutions with a +NAO not -NAO.. Am I missing something here?

Yes. If the blocking is TOO strong it can create just enough confluence that it can get pushed south. Not saying that's the final solution here , but it's not impossible.

[Dsnowx53]

I cropped a couple of 500mb images from WSI. So I think I should be allowed to post them here.

But let's compare 144 hours on tonight's run to 180 hours on last night's run (12 hours apart for when they are valid for). Look at the almost exact resemblance in the 500mb lows!

Tonight's 00z run at 144 hours:

 

 

Last night's 00z run at 180 hours:

 

 

So, 12 hours earlier on tonight's run, we have nearly an identical 500mb low placement from last night's run. This is why I and others initially thought this was going to be a big hit.

 

However, since it's earlier and the block is stronger and more oriented towards the Midwest, we have much more confluence closer to our coastline on tonight's run, as opposed to well offshore on last night's run. So, the height rises near our coast are much more pronounced on last night's run, despite tonight's run phasing even earlier.

 

 

Edit: Additionally, this is also why I mentioned that this run phased too early. Had there been a phase later, the confluence would have been further east in the beginning of the phase, allowing our storm to gain more latitude before it became cutoff. 

[MJO812]

GGEM ensemble mean is way southeast of the op

[MJO812]

GFS is still way south but looks slightly better at 500 than previous runs.

[Edge Weather]

Control run of the Euro looks exactly like the operational run, keeping the storm well south and east of us, with just a bit of light snow here.  It brings the storm to Cape Hatteras, NC then slides it ENE out to sea. Heavy precip is not too far off shore, but it is off shore. 

[Edge Weather]

Well, here is some good news.  On the prior run the NAVGEM had gone well south, off of Florida, and on this run at 6z.....

[Zir0b]

why does everyone want the models to be showing a perfect hit 7 days out? 

[bluewave]

With such strong blocking in place, we always run the risk of this getting suppressed too far south.

The Ash Wednesday storm of 1962 is one of the analogs with a similar early March pattern. We 

would need the models to back off the blocking a little the next few days for this to creep further

north. The April Fool's day storm in 1997 was a bowling ball that came further up the coast

with less blocking to the north.

 

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

why does everyone want the models to be showing a perfect hit 7 days out? 

usually one model shows is at least a hit close to NYC by now - the GGEM was close but their ensembles are much further south which means the GGEM OP is probably wrong - since no model is showing a north trend - as of right now we have to assume this will be a miss south and east...........

[bluewave]

usually one model shows is at least a hit close to NYC by now - the GGEM was close but their ensembles are much further south which means the GGEM OP is probably wrong - since no model is showing a north trend - as of right now we have to assume this will be a miss south and east...........

 

The new NAVGEM has a similar evolution to the Euro in that it's not trying to phase this with the tail end of the 50/50 energy

like the GFS is. It will be interesting to see if the NAVGEM can become the best American medium range model.

[Weathergun]

The 6z GFS still looks nothing like the ECMWF, handling the northern stream. The ULL doesn't lift out of New England. Instead the ULL phases too late with the storm.

 

I think what we need more than phasing, is for the block to link up with the SE ridge more than Midwest ridge. So the storm can come further north. That can't happen.with the ULL hanging back over New England.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

why does everyone want the models to be showing a perfect hit 7 days out? 

 

its not about a perfect hit this far out. its that we have seen a trend in a stronger block the past couple cycles. usually, models are too strong with a block and as we get closer they back off of it a bit. ie, the past two systems. but right now, you guys are heading in the wrong direction. if 12z and tonights 0z euro keeps it going and shows a hit for the SC/NC/SE VA, it will be tough to all of the sudden swing it back north within the next few days because its obviously starting to pick up on the orientation of the block.

 

and im not saying the euro is right but i trust the thing in the medium range the most, esp in -nao +pna patterns.

[Weather Fanatic 97]

Southern stram is digging more but it looks like the ULL will shunt this bad boy south and east again!

[Weather Fanatic 97]

At 138 its still phasig and bombing wow! SE getting smacked

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

the ULL over NewEngland just wont budge. it actually keeps getting reinforced from the NW atlantic. this looks to be a good hit for the SE folks. (still dont consider myself one even though i live here now).

[tcutter]

the ULL over NewEngland just wont budge. it actually keeps getting reinforced from the NW atlantic. this looks to be a good hit for the SE folks. (still dont consider myself one even though i live here now).

 

 

 

SE = Virginia and south??

[Weather Fanatic 97]

Its ashame because if it wasnt for that ULL this would have been a major HECS! We have to watch that ULL in future runs

[96blizz]

I hate clicking 'Next' and knowing that it's headed East in the next frame...  Plenty of time and a complex set up!

[earthlight]

Once again, the GFS looks absolutely nothing like the OP Euro with handling the split of the ULL to the north over Southeast Canada and the Great Lakes. Although the GFS was able to phase in a piece of the northern stream this run, the Euro literally has a closed upper level low over the Great Lakes where the GFS has absolutely nothing.

[SnoSki14]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we will get a big storm and the ULL will be east and weaker as we go forward.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

SE = Virginia and south??

 

even further south. we are talking SC and SE NC, esp the coastal sections.

 

i think the gfs is too south, not amplifying enough with the northern stream. i think the general idea of a SE to southern mid atlantic hit is looking decent this far out.

[Zir0b]

Once again, the GFS looks absolutely nothing like the OP Euro with handling the split of the ULL to the north over Southeast Canada and the Great Lakes. Although the GFS was able to phase in a piece of the northern stream this run, the Euro literally has a closed upper level low over the Great Lakes where the GFS has absolutely nothing.

While the  actual potential storm is further away, the way the Euro handles the northern stream features is <120 hrs out from happening...you'd think since the Euro has had a similar idea with the northern stream aspect for 3 runs in a row now, it's becoming more likely that the Euro has the right idea 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Once again, the GFS looks absolutely nothing like the OP Euro with handling the split of the ULL to the north over Southeast Canada and the Great Lakes. Although the GFS was able to phase in a piece of the northern stream this run, the Euro literally has a closed upper level low over the Great Lakes where the GFS has absolutely nothing.

 

true..the end result is gfs is a hit for coastal SE and euro a hit for southern mid atlantic. still need a weaker block or a better orientation of it. right now, its forcing everything too much underneath it, even with an early monster phase that the euro showed.

[Neblizzard]

While the actual potential storm is further away, the way the Euro handles the northern stream features is <120 hrs out from happening...you'd think since the Euro has had a similar idea with the northern stream aspect for 3 runs in a row

now, it's becoming more likely that the Euro has the right idea

Excellent post and I agree, the Euro is getting into its range handling the northern stream energy and most likely has the right idea here. There is going to be a major storm, the question is how far north can it get? We have to hope the confluence is weaker on future runs to allow this thing to come north. I suspect by this weekend the EURO should have a great idea what's going to happen.

[Zir0b]

Lol... GGEM wants to cut this into the lakes...keeps this system completely dominated by the northern stream as the SE ridge tries to join up with the block, similar to what happened a couple weeks ago

[Zir0b]

Lol... GGEM wants to cut this into the lakes...keeps this system completely dominated by the northern stream as the SE ridge tries to join up with the block, similar to what happened a couple weeks ago

 

@ 144 hrs... The GGEM and GFS differ by over 1000 miles on the location of the low 

[SnoSki14]

Lol... GGEM wants to cut this into the lakes...keeps this system completely dominated by the northern stream as the SE ridge tries to join up with the block, similar to what happened a couple weeks ago

 

 

Just goes to show that models definitely do not have a good handle on this and anyone who thinks they know for sure what will happen have no clue.

[bluewave]

The NAVGEM is closer to the Euro than the GFS through 120.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Sorry folks, the GGEM transfers the low over NYC, not New England

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=156

[snywx]

12z GGEM