Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[CooL]

It's phasing at 120

[Dsnowx53]

Not only is this run night and day from the GFS, it's even night and day from the 12z Euro! I'd be surprised if we didn't see a big solution here. 

[CooL]

126 hrs

 

wow is all i can say

[Dsnowx53]

Already beginning to phase at 126 hours. The block is plenty strong which forces the northern stream energy south.

 

Our bowling ball is in NE Kansas, and the northern stream energy is in Wisconsin and slowly heading southward. 

[MJO812]

This is a good look

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013022800&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=120

[Dsnowx53]

For reference, at this same time, the 12z Euro was weaker with the northern stream energy, and had it northeast of the UP of Michigan...in Canada. 

[Dsnowx53]

We are phasing 6-12 hours earlier than last night's 00z Euro was, btw. 

[Weathergun]

The Euro appears to be phasing faster than the 12z run. And 0z last night too.

[Dsnowx53]

This is going to be a huge solution. 

[JSantanaNYC]

If is phasing earlier. It will have a big solution ..this is coming more north than 12z

[MJO812]

Sub 1000 low on Hatteras at 156

[Dsnowx53]

It actually cut off so early that it's not going to climb all the way up the coast. Oh well. 

[Dsnowx53]

This is an odd problem we've run into. Once the low cuts off, it's going to stall and not gain latitude. The Euro has this occurring too early. 

[JSantanaNYC]

But didnt we said this afternoon earlier phase was better?..now its too early?

[yoda]

So what happens from 144 to 168?  Phase and stall at OBX?

[Weathergun]

But didnt we said this afternoon earlier phase was better?..now its too early?

 

The ridge builds back to the north. Forcing it to cutoff early.

 

The low slowly drifts off to east off NC coast after 168hr. Little precip makes into NYC and LI.

[MJO812]

So what happens from 144 to 168?  Phase and stall at OBX?

 

 

Yes

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013022800&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168

[Dsnowx53]

But didnt we said this afternoon earlier phase was better?..now its too early?

 

 

There was more confluence on this run to the northeast as well, so the initial height rises out ahead of our shortwave were a bit reduced. I thought the phase was going to make up for that, but it didn't. For the most part, an earlier phase is better. But if the phase occurs before that confluence moves out of the way, the height rises will be minimal, meaning it won't gain much latitude before it gets cut off. And once it becomes cut off, it just stalls and does not gain latitude. 

[jconsor]

The difference this run is not so much that the phase is too early, it's that the blocking to the north is stronger because the block over SE Canada links up with ridging bulging north from the upper Midwest.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

nice run for the S MID ATL and parts of the SE.

[Dsnowx53]

The difference this run is not so much that the phase is too early, it's that the blocking to the north is stronger because the block over SE Canada links up with ridging bulging north from the upper Midwest.

 

 

Yeah, that too. The orientation of the block completely changed. 

[leemhoc]

The difference this run is not so much that the phase is too early, it's that the blocking to the north is stronger because the block over SE Canada links up with ridging bulging north from the upper Midwest.

How much of a shift would it take to let this baby ride up the coast?

[JSantanaNYC]

Yes I remember earthlight saying that if the blocking gets too strong..it was going to be a problem to get the storm north. Oh well we know the euro will have many solutions in the incoming days.

[Storm At Sea]

Climo says this goes north. If this is jan then sure...va/nc hit. Its almost march. Itll come north

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

we have been seeing guidance show a stronger block the past couple cycles. and this run keeps the trend going....

[MJO812]

Climo says this goes north. If this is jan then sure...va/nc hit. Its almost march. Itll come north

 

The NAO is rising. This should come more north.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

[Dsnowx53]

The orientation of the block changing yielded much more confluence near our area. The blocking ridge "points" towards the Upper Midwest instead of the Atlantic. Thus, downstream from our block, we have an area of confluence just offshore as opposed to well offshore.

 

Since that confluence was not able to move out of the way in time, the phase did not allow for a large initial gain in latitude. So, once the low DID become cut off, it was not at any higher of a latitude than it was when it initially phased.

 

That's what I meant by phasing too early. It phased when the confluence over the region was still strong. I guess I should have been more clear. But had the block's orientation changed and thus, the location of the confluence been more east, the earlier phase would have been greatly beneficial. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The NAO is rising. This should come more north.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

It may phase earlier, but Climo suggest that it'll move further north and a fast moving Jet will accompany this threat, if the phasing occurs earlier or later if the core of the blocking drifts SE or SW.

[PB GFI]

The NAO is rising. This should come more north.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif'>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

1 . The european view of the NAO is much stronger , so this look is prob wrong , it's not neg enough.

2 . It rises after day 7 even according to this , it's still heading lower as the SW is at HSE

3. Like I said earlier It MAY NOT come north if the values are so NEG you can shunt the system

4. I just ignore the GFS

[CooL]

The NAO is rising. This should come more north.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

The block is so strong before the storm though. It only rises until after the storm is done when the block dissipates