Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[SnoSki14]

I'm all aboard, nao goes negative to positive, huge block and pna in place prior to the storm. Euro is sensing something and its usually very accurate with major storms days out.

I'm not surprised the gfs op is confused right now.

At the same time you can't get mad if we don't get anything. Weather is weather and it does what it wants, the models don't show snowstorms to benefit weenies, it shows them because that's what the atmosphere is doing.

[leemhoc]

I know it is wayyyyyy to early for details but if the low made it 75-100 miles north which is a not huge shift, our area would be looking at a monster the way it is currently modeled. The low would make it up the coast to maybe the Delmarva and probably shift ene. It would be a slow mover and would pummel most of us. Once again way to early to any sort of details there will probably in all likelihood not be a major storm, just pointing out an observation.

[Edge Weather]

I'm all aboard, nao goes negative to positive, huge block and pna in place prior to the storm. Euro is sensing something and its usually very accurate with major storms days out.

I'm not surprised the gfs op is confused right now.

At the same time you can't get mad if we don't get anything. Weather is weather and it does what it wants, the models don't show snowstorms to benefit weenies, it shows them because that's what the atmosphere is doing.

 

Euro is good, but caution is still advised until we get to within about 6 days or less.  Remember, the Euro did not pick up the recent blizzard until 138 hrs out and it's verification scores don't really go much ahead of the GFS until within about 7 days, and often the Euro does some wacky things out past 6 days or so.  So, anyway, caution is advised. 

[CooL]

[Mitchel Volk]

This storm has been suggest on several ECMWF runs.  In addition we are in a NAO- and a PNA+ so the pattern is in favor of this happening.  It is still to early to tell, but do see a chance for another possible historic storm somewhere on the east coast.

[Heisy]

These types of storms are my favorite. I LOVE early March wave lengths. Allows for more phasing. Man if this things potential is reached it could be memorable. 

[leemhoc]

These types of storms are my favorite. I LOVE early March wave lengths. Allows for more phasing. Man if this things potential is reached it could be memorable. 

As it is currently modeled, the storm would be south of us and then to the east. If it could trend north we would really be in for a monster because of how slow it moves. However I feel the block MIGHT be too strong to let it come this north, however if the trough axis sets up farther west, it would allow it to come father north right up the coast. Look at how slowly it moves to the ene after it reaches the Carolina coast as per the euro model.

[earthlight]

I'm most intrigued because the blocking, modeled over Eastern Canada on the GEFS mean, has been trending stronger and farther southwest. Additionally, on the GEFS means, the PNA ridge axis near Boise has trended more amplified. The combination of the two suggest the potential for a major storm given the northern stream cutoff low present and the shortwave coming out of the Pacific.

 

However, I think people are already becoming attached to this potential and that is not smart. The storm is still 170+ hours away. The split of the upper level low over the Northeast is so critical to this potential -- if it happens like the GFS suggests, there will be no potential. If a piece of that ULL ends up just northeast of New England, the entire H5 flow is from northwest to southeast across the Eastern US which means the storm will just head east off the coast.  We essentially need the Euro to be correct in that regard, with splitting the ULL in two..and building the block between it, with one piece of the ULL settling over the Great Lakes and the other going north and east into the NW Atlantic. That sets the table for a potential event as the block builds over the NW Atlantic and forces the piece of the ULL over the Great Lakes to slide southeast underneath it and phase with the vort that ejects out of the Pac NW.

 

Even if the Euro is correct...we still have many intricate details to work out with the potential phase/timing/etc. So I think we should all remember this is an incredibly long shot especially at this range. But if the blocking comes to fruition, our chances definitely go up...which is why myself and a few others are starting to get at least slightly encouraged to see the guidance trending stronger with that blocking feature as we get closer.

[PB GFI]

Uptons latest AFD as per euro , they paint it as a wind driven coastal rain with a persistent easterly wind. I didn't read the Euro that way.

My biggest concern is with such a NEG NAO a further south and east solution is possible.

Again Im not looking at the GFS outside 72 hrs. I have my reasons.

[snywx]

Having interned at the NWS, I can tell you that there are a handful of folks still in the force that truly treat their forecasting position as a true government job...You know, the type that you can put little to no effort into, hardly produce anything of any use, and simply show up for a pay check. JMC wrote the Long Range discussion this afternoon for Upton...the two guys that could be are John Cristantello or Jim Connolly. I don't know either. However, I will say that the long range doesn't even make sense (mountain/elevation snow? the precip doesn't even get that far inland on the Euro).

.75" to 1" qpf on the 12z Euro for these parts..

[snywx]

Uptons latest AFD as per euro , they paint it as a wind driven coastal rain with a persistent easterly wind. I didn't read the Euro that way.

My biggest concern is with such a NEG NAO a further south and east solution is possible.

Again Im not looking at the GFS outside 72 hrs. I have my reasons.

 I usually associate further SE solutions with a +NAO not -NAO.. Am I missing something here?

[Heisy]

I'm most intrigued because the blocking, modeled over Eastern Canada on the GEFS mean, has been trending stronger and farther southwest. Additionally, on the GEFS means, the PNA ridge axis near Boise has trended more amplified. The combination of the two suggest the potential for a major storm given the northern stream cutoff low present and the shortwave coming out of the Pacific.

 

However, I think people are already becoming attached to this potential and that is not smart. The storm is still 170+ hours away. The split of the upper level low over the Northeast is so critical to this potential -- if it happens like the GFS suggests, there will be no potential. If a piece of that ULL ends up just northeast of New England, the entire H5 flow is from northwest to southeast across the Eastern US which means the storm will just head east off the coast.  We essentially need the Euro to be correct in that regard, with splitting the ULL in two..and building the block between it, with one piece of the ULL settling over the Great Lakes and the other going north and east into the NW Atlantic. That sets the table for a potential event as the block builds over the NW Atlantic and forces the piece of the ULL over the Great Lakes to slide southeast underneath it and phase with the vort that ejects out of the Pac NW.

 

Even if the Euro is correct...we still have many intricate details to work out with the potential phase/timing/etc. So I think we should all remember this is an incredibly long shot especially at this range. But if the blocking comes to fruition, our chances definitely go up...which is why myself and a few others are starting to get at least slightly encouraged to see the guidance trending stronger with that blocking feature as we get closer.

 

I agree, its fun to talk about. I may sound like I'm getting too attached but I'm full aware on how many things could go wrong. Fun to look at and talk about though. I live in Philly also which could stand a better chance, but its too far out to even know yet. The EURO/NOGAPS/18z GFS have a really fun looking shortwave though with so much potential. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 I usually associate further SE solutions with a +NAO not -NAO.. Am I missing something here?

 

i usually associate the opposite. the stronger the block the more likely they can be suppressed. no blocking and they can come as far inland as they want.

[snywx]

i usually associate the opposite. the stronger the block the more likely they can be suppressed. no blocking and they can come as far inland as they want.

I guess it also depends on where the block sets up..

[Dsnowx53]

See that vort max south of that vortex and southwest of the block in Canada? The Euro is much more aggressive with that feature, as it forces that vort southward and it actually develops its own circulation. The GFS just kinda has it sitting there and remaining a non factor.

 

 

[Neblizzard]

See that vort max south of that vortex and southwest of the block in Canada? The Euro is much more aggressive with that feature, as it forces that vort southward and it actually develops its own circulation. The GFS just kinda has it sitting there and remaining a non factor.

If anything the blocking has once again trended stronger in the last several runs. Definitely a promising setup.

[Dsnowx53]

The Euro also more efficiently splits that vortex to begin with. The initial amount of vorticity that tries to come down is actually pretty similar, but the Euro's more efficient split yields a large area of vorticity, along with a few height contours coming down with it. That makes it much more likely to develop its own upper level circulation and phase with our storm, as opposed to just fizzling out.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I guess it also depends on where the block sets up..

 

yea i guess the better guys can elaborate on this. east based and west based NAOs behave differently, so there's a trickle down affect downstream?

 

anyway, back on topic...

[Dsnowx53]

If anything the blocking has once again trended stronger in the last several runs. Definitely a promising setup.

 

 

Agreed. But I definitely do not have the confidence to say at this point which model's handling of the northern stream is more accurate. I am inclined to say that given the huge block, energy should definitely be forced south. However, it's hard to say how much energy will be there to begin with, since I'm not sure the split and breaking off of that energy is necessarily related to the block. 

[Storm At Sea]

It used to be an old rule that the Euro was always superior with northern stream systems/interactions....Im not sure if that rule still stands.

 

Agreed. But I definitely do not have the confidence to say at this point which model's handling of the northern stream is more accurate. I am inclined to say that given the huge block, energy should definitely be forced south. However, it's hard to say how much energy will be there to begin with, since I'm not sure the split and breaking off of that energy is necessarily related to the block. 

[Heisy]

Could care less about specifics on the GFS right now, all I car is that it shows a storm on the East Coast and so far it does

[Heisy]

The most important feature is the northern pieces which the EURO drops in and captures the southern vort. The 18z GFS showed it sort of (though it used a different piece compared to the EURO)...The 00z GFS doesn't really show it. 

[earthlight]

The new Canadian has a 986mb surface low sitting on the 40/70 Benchmark with what appears to be a fairly robust cutoff low aloft at 180 hours.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It used to be an old rule that the Euro was always superior with northern stream systems/interactions....Im not sure if that rule still stands.

 

it was pretty darn good with it 4-6 days out prior to boxing day.

[snywx]

0z GGEM

 

 

[Dsnowx53]

I have WSI access so I'm out to 96 hours. The northern stream still looks good so far, but it's still very early and much can change. 

[rsteff]

How do some get the euro before the rest of us.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

How do some get the euro before the rest of us.

 

$$$

 

but lets keep this thread clear for the next 15mins for those that can spill the beans accurately.

[Dsnowx53]

Through 108 hours, we are still night and day with respect to the northern stream energy from the GFS. The GFS has almost nothing, whereas the Euro is extremely potent. More potent than 12z. 

[Dsnowx53]

There is already a closed 534 dam contour at 500mb in Northern Wisconsin with plenty of vorticity at 108 hours. Hopefully we can get a phase here.