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Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

Dsnowx53

By Dsnowx53,
in New York City Metro

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rcad1

rcad1

Posted
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For western nassau Upton has a chance of snow tues night then a chance of snow going to rain on Wednesday with a high of 40. Sure it will Change a 100 times before then but found it interesting that they had a 40% chance already....

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
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Euro control run looks very much like the operational run, but is further off shore, not as big of a hit at all, but beautiful storm, just a bit too far off shore. It brings the low to the coast of Sourth Carolina, then stars to deepen it near Cape Hatteras, then bombs it about 100 miles NE of Cape Hatteras and stalls it there.  It keep the heaviest stuff just off shore, but still manages to bring us a few inches of snow.

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

. Usually a bad sign when the control is less amped! No low into Asbury Park this time LoL

 

Yeah, no low off Asbury Park this time.  That is something different for a change, but honeslty, it is very similar to what the Euro showed, so obviously the Euro is thinking there is a good chance of a bombing monster low, just how close does it get to us? 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

The NAO on the 12z Euro heads to almost a 5 SD below normal , I am not surprised to see the Control or Ensemble a little south and east of the Operational . You know you run the risk of a scrape or a shunt with such a deep NEG value . We are 7 days out and one cant hang on every run , I am just going to look for continuity over the next 3 days or so FROM THE EURO .

The GFS will prob be the last model to pick this up IMO , Its gona always gona wana run the center off the coast too fast in almost any set up .

So I will not even look to that model for any kind of guidance .

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The top analog for the next 6-10 days is March 6,2001. We all know what happened on that date.

 

 

I think that it's mainly coming back to that one date since that's the only AO analog so low during the first week of March.

It's also very impressive to see the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962 in there.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

The NAO on the 12z Euro heads to almost a 5 SD below normal , I am not surprised to see the Control or Ensemble a little south and east of the Operational . You know you run the risk of a scrape or a shunt with such a deep NEG value . We are 7 days out and one cant hang on every run , I am just going to look for continuity over the next 3 days or so FROM THE EURO .

The GFS will prob be the last model to pick this up IMO , Its gona always gona wana run the center off the coast too fast in almost any set up .

So I will not even look to that model for any kind of guidance .

 

true, on the euro...i think the next 2/3 days are big for it. its weird to say that this far out technically speaking but we know it does such an awesome job in the 4-6 day range in favorable patterns. and while we want to kill the gfs, it does serve a really good purpose in this particular setup. im far from understanding much about the science behind all of this but i do when i chase KU's in a favorable pattern, I find when the euro shows it around 4-6 days in consecutive runs and the gfs is OTS you can start getting really excited from the mid atl to SNE.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

. I dont want a repeat of that! I was supposed to get 2-3 feet and ended up with 5 sloppy inches

 to not want the chance of that is just not seeing it with the right perspective. I will take a shot at a HECS/BECS just days before any day of the week any day of the year. yes, the phase was too late and alot of us mentally jumped off bridges.....but the setup was there.

 

soooooo close:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2001/us0306.php

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

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An ensemble mean might not show a strong signal for an individual piece of a ULL that ends up needing to phase in for a big solution. I would expect the Euro ensemble mean to be SE of the operational at this point. 

 

In other words, the signal for the piece of the ULL that phases in might be muted on an ensemble mean, which forces the storm track further SE. That piece is very important in that it halts the progression of the western ridge and makes it more meridional, while also providing the additional energy for our storm to phase with. 

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
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It looked like the GFS was close to phasing on this run.

I'm not sure if you have access to the euro but the h5 of the euro compared to the gfs is night and day. The euro phases in a piece of northern stream energy that comes from just north of the lake superior. While the gfs has nothing remotely close to this. The gfs tries to phase some northern stream stuff from the 50/50 low, but by the time it would negative tilt it would be at bermuda. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The 18z NAVGEM may not see see the northern stream vort that the Euro phases with.

But it looks better than the GFS since it's not showing a piece of the 50/50 energy dropping

down and phasing. It also has a more robust 500 mb signal than the GFS.

 

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Storm At Sea

Storm At Sea

Posted
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Having interned at the NWS, I can tell you that there are a handful of folks still in the force that truly treat their forecasting position as a true government job...You know, the type that you can put little to no effort into, hardly produce anything of any use, and simply show up for a pay check. JMC wrote the Long Range discussion this afternoon for Upton...the two guys that could be are John Cristantello or Jim Connolly. I don't know either. However, I will say that the long range doesn't even make sense (mountain/elevation snow? the precip doesn't even get that far inland on the Euro).

 

Well that seals it. Lock this thread up, nothing to see here people

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