Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[SR Airglow]

 

The EURO is a thing of beauty, up here is a foot plus, and that's the low end on this storm! It's still eternity away in model time, but we know that when the EURO gets locked into the big one, it's hard to break it away, and more often than not it's right... If this persists for another 72 hours on the EURO, it's game on.

-skisheep

[Zir0b]

Really good sign that the Euro kept the big phase idea for 2 cycles in a row and it isn't one of those one time fluke runs...though we have a long journey ahead of us 

[Kaner587]

Euro would easily score a coup in a situation like this with strong blocking and already has this yr with sandy. I'd like to see its ensembles come in more amplified than 00z

[CooL]

The phase is just slightly off from giving is a hecs

[IsentropicLift]

Cool. How abour KFWN

Everyone is about the same, in that really comfy 1.00-1.50" area. Less as you move north, more as you go south. Philly is about as far west as the really good snows make it.

[snywx]

Everyone in this sub-forum is in excess of 1" QPF this run except Orange County.

 

KSWF - 0.75-1.00"

KMMU - ~1.25-1.5"

KNYC - ~1.25-1.5"

KISP - 1.50-1.75"

KACY - 2.00-2.25"

KPHL - 1.25-1.50"

Is KFWN not in this sub forum?

[Kaner587]

The phase is just slightly off from giving is a hecs

Yes and the potential is certainly there.

[lab94]

Everyone is about the same, in that really comfy 1.00-1.50" area. Less as you move north, more as you go south. Philly is about as far west as the really good snows make it.

Thanks

[bluewave]

Beauty of a LLJ along coast should this verify.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Is that all snow for the coast?

[IsentropicLift]

If the 12z Euro is correct the first flakes begin to fall around hr 180 and don't begin shutting down untiil hr 210-216 or so. A 24+ hour event.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

wow. you wont bet bullseyed this far all the time...but this has texbook written all over it. alot more margin for error then, for example, the LI/SNE blizzard 3 weeks ago.

[IsentropicLift]

Is KFWN not in this sub forum?

I didn't list every location in this forum lol. I gave you SWF and MMU. FWN is pretty much a split between the two.

[IsentropicLift]

Is that all snow for the coast?

Likely, the 850 freezing line starts a few hundred miles south of us. The surface freezing line hangs around but we all know that if the CCB got up here temps will be a non issue. For the duration we're below freezing at all levels but the surface.

[snywx]

I didn't list every location in this forum lol. I gave you SWF and MMU. FWN is pretty much a split between the two.

FWN & SWF will give areas in the NW an idea of the extent of the precip.. MMU does nothing for 99% of us up here lol..

[SR Airglow]

Are temps an issue for the storm on this run of the EURO? Guessing from the lack of discussion about them that they are not, but want to make sure.

-skisheep

[MJO812]

Likely, the 850 freezing line starts a few hundred miles south of us. The surface freezing line hangs around but we all know that if the CCB got up here temps will be a non issue. For the duration we're below freezing at all levels but the surface.

 

Thanks. The teleconnections show the PNA going down while the NAO rising. Signs of a big storm?

[IsentropicLift]

Are temps an issue for the storm on this run of the EURO? Guessing from the lack of discussion about them that they are not, but want to make sure.

-skisheep

Everyone including the coast stays below freezing at all levels but the surface. NW areas stay below freezing throughout at all levels. The surface hangs right around freezing. But if you get into more of the CCB dynamics would take care of that.

[Kaner587]

Thanks. The teleconnections show the PNA going down while the NAO rising. Signs of a big storm?

Yes archambault event by convention (-NAO to + NAO) the teleconnectors are there big time for a storm of the mid Atlantic coast

[IsentropicLift]

Thanks. The teleconnections show the PNA going down while the NAO rising. Signs of a big storm?

We've seen some of hour most historic snow storms while the NAO was flipping positive. By hr 240 on the Euro you have a huge long wave trough digging down into the Gulf of Baja and it's helping to pump up the SE ridge.

[Weather Fanatic 97]

Thanks. The teleconnections show the PNA going down while the NAO rising. Signs of a big storm?

some of our biggest storms actually come from transition patterns

[Dsnowx53]

Just FYI, the typical Archambault high precip events are when the NAO goes from positive to negative. She did note that east coast snow events often happen when the NAO rises, but that wasn't the main point in her research.

[Weather Fanatic 97]

Winds would be insane next to the coast based on the 12zECM

[Kaner587]

Winds would be insane next to the coast based on the 12zECM

850 mb winds along the mid-Atlantic coast are 75-85kts. Would be quite windy

[bluewave]

I think the only previous big snow events along the EC during MJO 7 were April 82 and February 1978.

 

 

 

[Kaner587]

I think the only previous big snow events along the EC during MJO 7 were April 82 and February 1978.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

Well at least it would be in good company. 2 historic blizzards lol

[Weather Fanatic 97]

Well at least it would be in good company. 2 historic blizzards lol

looks like more snow threats possible in the future aswell as the MjO might go into 8,1,2

[jm1220]

Too bad it's so many days out. But nice eye candy for sure.

[bluewave]

Well at least it would be in good company. 2 historic blizzards lol

 

That's for sure. Phases 4-7 don't have many storms, but the ones that do form are biggies. March 1993 was in phase 4 and 1-11-11 was in 6.

[Snow_Miser]

I think the only previous big snow events along the EC during MJO 7 were April 82 and February 1978.

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

April of 82: