Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 180, trough going negative tilt, low pressure well east of the 00z position.

[Edge Weather]

Guys, the control run this morning brought the storm to South Carolina Coast, then up the coast, and went negative.  Looks a lot like this.

[earthlight]

What a gorgeous development on these last two runs...I hope the Euro has the right idea because our chances of seeing something big on the East Coast would be pretty high. Watching that northern stream ULL slide south and east underneath the block to phase with the shortwave to its south is pretty awesome.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 186 it's coming north. Big storm off the VA Capes. Moderate precip up to about KNYC.

[Dsnowx53]

As long as the Euro is correct with the orientation and strength of its block, there almost has to be a phase. Just when it occurs is in question, but there is actually room for error with this.

[96blizz]

Superb play by play for those on the phone Earthlight.

[rossi]

Superb play by play for those on the phone Earthlight.

Superb if Earthlight was the only one doing so we would have correct info!!!

 

Rossi

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 192, big CCB taking place. Jersey shore and from about NYC east getting into it pretty good. light precip extending about 100 miles NW of the city.

[Kaner587]

Abc1234 and euro control ftw with that NW moving low lol....but ya echoing what everyone else is saying this block means business and leads to an almost certain phase, location being the variable we need to lock down over the next several days

[earthlight]

Absolute nuke offshore of the Mid Atlantic Coast now at 192 hours...the CCB is scraping the coast. Don't know if this will come to pass but the blocking on the Euro over the Northwest Atlantic is mouth watering when you have these two puzzle pieces (ULL and southern stream vort) on the table.

[IsentropicLift]

Really nice hit at hr 198. CCB coming further NW, Everyone south and east of KMMU getting into the moderate precip. Heaviest stuff is offshore.

[Allsnow]

Stalled at 198 lol.

[earthlight]

You can see the pieces here...the block over the Northwest Atlantic and the ever so slightly disconnected phase between the northern and southern stream vorts on the East Coast.

 

[Allsnow]

Hr 204 stalled and still snowing lol

[Weathergun]

984mb low 150m east of VA beach at 192hr-198hr. Total qpf  1.00"> for coastal areas.

[Edge Weather]

Abc1234 and euro control ftw with that NW moving low lol....but ya echoing what everyone else is saying this block means business and leads to an almost certain phase, location being the variable we need to lock down over the next several days

 

Yes, this looks more like the control run than anything else this run.  The control run did the same thing this morning, nearly exactly but it got the storm further north and west.  It is all in the details, but the main idea was from the control run this morning.  Can't wait to see what it shows later when it comes out.

[Kaner587]

Storm continuing to decay at 204 after around 1.0 qpf around NYC

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 204, low pressure is slipping eastward. Still light to moderate precip for everyone. Even Boston getting it this run.

[earthlight]

At 204 hours the surface low is on the 35/70 benchmark and we're getting hammered

[Zir0b]

984mb low 150m east of VA beach at 192hr-198hr. Total qpf  1.00"> for coastal areas.

precip shield must be massive if you could get that much qpf from a low stalling in that area 

[MJO812]

precip shield must be massive if you could get that much qpf from a low stalling in that area 

 

It is massive.

[Snow_Miser]

Wow. What a run.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif

[Kaner587]

At 210 light precip still in the area. The satellite presentation of this baby would be a thing a beauty.

[IsentropicLift]

Everyone in this sub-forum is in excess of 1" QPF this run except Orange County.

 

KSWF - 0.75-1.00"

KMMU - ~1.25-1.5"

KNYC - ~1.25-1.5"

KISP - 1.50-1.75"

KACY - 2.00-2.25"

KPHL - 1.25-1.50"

[Dsnowx53]

NYC and LI are on the 1.5" QPF line. More as you go south.

[ace0927]

Partially...and the Euro is just later with the phase in general. The vort that comes out of the Pac NW drops really far south this run...it goes off the Southeast Coast.

 

But its still gonna phase..and the block is forcing it do so near our area. So we will probably still see snow on this run but the big low will form out to sea.

 

 

Partially...and the Euro is just later with the phase in general. The vort that comes out of the Pac NW drops really far south this run...it goes off the Southeast Coast.

 

But its still gonna phase..and the block is forcing it do so near our area. So we will probably still see snow on this run but the big low will form out to sea.

so if the upper low would move out slightly faster there would be more/ample room for this to phase amplify sooner/come up the coast?

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see if the NAVGEM scores ahead of the GFS on this one as it has a strong

storm signal like the Euro but a bit of a different evolution. 

[lab94]

Everyone in this sub-forum is in excess of 1" QPF this run except Orange County.

 

KSWF - 0.75-1.00"

KMMU - ~1.25-1.5"

KNYC - ~1.25-1.5"

KISP - 1.50-1.75"

KACY - 2.00-2.25"

KPHL - 1.25-1.50"

Cool. How abour KFWN

[IsentropicLift]

It probably could have come further north but the block is so massive that the storm eventually moves almost due east with time. The low arguably stalls or moves south slightly from hours 186-192.

[Kaner587]

so if the upper low would move out slightly faster there would be more/ample room for this to phase amplify sooner/come up the coast?

There is probably a small amount of room for a closer to the coast more amplified solution however the strong block suggests this thing isn't coming too far NW