Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[IsentropicLift]

In the 12 day range the GFS tries to blow up a clipper well to our south, if you want to call it that.

[Zir0b]

UKMET 144 hrs: 10 mb deeper with the incoming low than the GFS at the same time 

[NEG NAO]

UKMET 144 hrs: 10 mb deeper with the incoming low than the GFS at the same time 

where does the low go after 144 ? I think you have to also take into consideration climatology here - it doesn't favor such a suppressed GFS solution in March..............Euro today should be VERY telling as too what direction we are heading next week

[Storm At Sea]

It's pretty evident that the UKmet would drive a vigorous low further north than the Euro with a secondary around the Delmarva. As I have noted in other posts, everything is contingent on the strength of the confluence over the NE and whether the 50/50 low drifts east slowly/lags (GFS) or it moves out (Euro/UKmet). GFS has the SE bias and tends to also be too slow with lifting out upper level disturbances. However, given the blockiness of the pattern and the fact that it is almost March, GFS could be on to something. Signifcant height rises east of the SLP is also missing on the GFS...we get a system that never flexes its muscles and also stays positively tilted.

 

where does the low go after 144 ? I think you have to also take into consideration climatology here - it doesn't favor such a suppressed GFS solution in March..............Euro today should be VERY telling as too what direction we are heading next week

[NEG NAO]

It's pretty evident that the UKmet would drive a vigorous low further north than the Euro with a secondary around the Delmarva. As I have noted in other posts, everything is contingent on the strength of the confluence over the NE and whether the 50/50 low drifts east slowly/lags (GFS) or it moves out (Euro/UKmet). GFS has the SE bias and tends to also be too slow with lifting out upper level disturbances. However, given the blockiness of the pattern and the fact that it is almost March, GFS could be on to something. Signifcant height rises east of the SLP is also missing on the GFS...we get a system that never flexes its muscles and also stays positively tilted.

so the ukmet is moving more towards a Euro solution ? GFS is on to something ?

[MJO812]

GGEM is north of the GFS and warm

 

[MJO812]

Navgem for next week

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013022712∏=prpτ=180&set=All

[bluewave]

Navgem for next week

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013022712∏=prpτ=180&set=All

 

That's neat to see it break toward the 0z Euro.

[Zir0b]

That's neat to see it break toward the 0z Euro.

5h map:

[bluewave]

5h map:

 

 

I don't know anything about early verification scores yet, but they just posted an implementation notice.

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin13-05nogaps_navgem.htm

[Allsnow]

The gefs mean and 1/3 of its ensembles develop a significant storm along coast

[IsentropicLift]

12z Euro hr 120, ULL moving out, energy beginning to dive in from eastern Montana. So far I see no major changes, just that the energy might be a hair east and north of the 00z run as it leaves Montana.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 138 low pressure in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa. Looks a good bit east of 00z at 150.

[Allsnow]

Hr 144 it's further north and a mess. Not going to look like 00z

[earthlight]

Euro is definitely different in handling the northern stream so far, not that anyone expected it to be the same. There's less phasing and the northern stream is farther northeast.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 144, looks okay, low pressure over southern Illinois, energy is still over MO/Iowa.

[Allsnow]

Hr 156 it's trying to phase

[earthlight]

Hr 144 it's further north and a mess. Not going to look like 00z

 

I wouldn't say its a mess...it's still going to phase that northern stream closed low in. It almost has no choice because the PNA ridge going up and the blocking to the north.

[IsentropicLift]

It's going to look closer to the GFS I believe. Hour 156, the trough has a positive tilt still. energy is near the boot heel of Missouri and western Kentucky. Low pressure is just west of Atlanta.

[earthlight]

It's going to look closer to the GFS I believe. Hour 156, the trough has a positive tilt still. energy is near the boot heel of Missouri and western Kentucky. Low pressure is just west of Atlanta.

 

It looks absolutely nothing like the GFS at 500mb, two completely different solutions.

[earthlight]

Still has the same idea of dropping the ULL south and phasing at 168. This run will end up farther south and east, but it continues to look nothing like the GFS or other models with its setup and interactions aloft.

[IsentropicLift]

It looks absolutely nothing like the GFS at 500mb, two completely different solutions.

I was referring to the final outcome. Hopefully I'm wrong. Hr 168 low pressure is organizing off SC.

[Weathergun]

I agree. This run is just phasing later.

 

It looks absolutely nothing like the GFS at 500mb, two completely different solutions.

[earthlight]

The southern stream shortwave is sitting over Atlanta at 168 hours...we need that to be a hair farther north and we would've had a huge solution.

[ace0927]

Still has the same idea of dropping the ULL south and phasing at 168. This run will end up farther south and east, but it continues to look nothing like the GFS or other models with its setup and interactions aloft.

 

 

Still has the same idea of dropping the ULL south and phasing at 168. This run will end up farther south and east, but it continues to look nothing like the GFS or other models with its setup and interactions aloft.

is the issue the big upper low to our north and east? 

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 174, low pressure south of the Outer Banks, trough trying to go negative tilt. Light precip up to about Cape May.

[earthlight]

The Euro is developing a big block over the Northwest Atlantic from 150 hours on. If that comes to fruition our chances of seeing a major phase solution would increase fairly dramatically.

[bluewave]

Still has the same idea of dropping the ULL south and phasing at 168. This run will end up farther south and east, but it continues to look nothing like the GFS or other models with its setup and interactions aloft.

 

It looks like it could be hanging back some energy at 96 hrs off the West Coast which might mean a quicker phase.

[Allsnow]

Hr 180 mod snow in area

[earthlight]

is the issue the big upper low to our north and east? 

 

Partially...and the Euro is just later with the phase in general. The vort that comes out of the Pac NW drops really far south this run...it goes off the Southeast Coast.

 

But its still gonna phase..and the block is forcing it do so near our area. So we will probably still see snow on this run but the big low will form out to sea.