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Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

Dsnowx53

By Dsnowx53,
in New York City Metro

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

The Euro usually picks up major storms very early like it did with the New England blizzard and Sandy, and its been keying on the storm next week so I'm definitely going to pay attention.

The energy coming in is very potent so I'm not surprised it gets blown up. The gfs is slow to get rid of the ULLs so everything gets sheared out.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
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JB s first stab at the middle of  next weeks system is for 3-6 with locally 8 from  the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic and then the Northeast , just thought I would post his idea .

 

There is a system around the day 15 range on the Control that has his interest .

That one he seems to think can deepen into something that should really be the focus around here  .

 

Just his thinking for those who care  . 

what did he say after seeing the 0Z EURO ? Hopefully 12Z will show a similar solution - all indicies are favorable and IMO if the MJO gets into the COD or phase 8 a MECS or better is is possible

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

what did he say after seeing the 0Z EURO ? Hopefully 12Z will show a similar solution - all indicies are favorable and IMO if the MJO gets into the COD or phase 8 a MECS or better is is possible

 

what did he say after seeing the 0Z EURO ? Hopefully 12Z will show a similar solution - all indicies are favorable and IMO if the MJO gets into the COD or phase 8 a MECS or better is is possible

Yeh , wow just saw the 0z for me in Monmouth County that would be kinda nice   . The only issue for me this far out is the models are gona have a hard time figuring out a SW position 7 days out with the NAO 3 SD below normal  .  You can see how this scenario could play out  from HSE all the way to  AC . ( heck Montauk ) with a cut off low like that , just need a few days to sort .

The solution has a very Feb 2009 look to it , where the gradient is steep and if you are just  north of its final progression its sheer agony .

I havent seen that kind of solution modeled  anywhere else yet . With it being the first run of its kind  I  will temper my enthusiasm until I see some continuity .  ( You know that run has him stoked ) .

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

The control run does it again, once again much more amplied with the storm next Wednesday night and Thursday.  Again, putting the low off Asbury Park as a 982mb at 210 hrs.  It is interesting how much it seems to love that location.  Well, it would be interested, but it is suspicious how much it loves that particuar location. 

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WE GOT HIM

WE GOT HIM

Posted
Posted

The control run does it again, once again much more amplied with the storm next Wednesday night and Thursday.  Again, putting the low off Asbury Park as a 982mb at 210 hrs.  It is interesting how much it seems to love that location.  Well, it would be interested, but it is suspicious how much it loves that particuar location. 

Good Sign that the control run is going with the storm esp for 12z

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

The control run does it again, once again much more amplied with the storm next Wednesday night and Thursday. Again, putting the low off Asbury Park as a 982mb at 210 hrs. It is interesting how much it seems to love that location. Well, it would be interested, but it is suspicious how much it loves that particuar location.

It's a completely different evolution with the EPS run, but it shows a 1-2' blizzard as the outcome like the Operational ECM run. Goes to show that there is more than one possible solution that will be able to produce a large snowstorm for the region.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

It's a completely different evolution with the EPS run, but it shows a 1-2' blizzard as the outcome like the Operational ECM run. Goes to show that there is more than one possible solution that will be able to produce a large snowstorm for the region.

 

A bit amped ....  Thats almost 3 inches QPF jersey shore over 36 hrs .  Half that would be nice .....

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NaoPos

NaoPos

Posted
Posted

Can someone please post the Euro snowmap

Yes please! new england forum was complaining that it was south, guessing that means we get a nice hit?

-skisheep

I would ask in the banter thread, because posting a 192hour snowfall map doesn't add value to the thread. It's a rough 8-14" on one map, and nothing on another one for NYC metro.
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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The speed that this system closes off is going to make the difference between a stronger low that

is closer to the coast or an OTS bomb. You would want to see the ensembles start getting

more bullish over the next several runs for us to have a chance.

 

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

It's a completely different evolution with the EPS run, but it shows a 1-2' blizzard as the outcome like the Operational ECM run. Goes to show that there is more than one possible solution that will be able to produce a large snowstorm for the region.

 

Yes, this is the key, honestly, it does take the low much further south, off the South Carolina Coast, then it actually manages to bring this thing right up the coast, completely bombing it as it gets to about 30 miles off Asbury Park, then it stalls it out there.  Yes, it is showing an even more amplified solution than the operational run.  Unfortunately, it is really strange how it always manages to produce storms there in that same location.  This is like the 4th time this year the model has done this, putting storms on that exact spot.  With that said, it did actually happen once and that was our blizzard, and the control run did better with the placement of that storm than the operational run did.  So, who knows?  Just some food for thought.  It sure would be interesting. 

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

Here you go, this is from DT.

 

In my experience, when you have the Control run and the operational run of the European model coming up with a solution like this, and with the control run even MORE amplified than the operational run, this is truly something to watch.  Of course, it may never really happen, but it will be interesting to see what does happen.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Would that include the PHL area or just jersey?

Very sharp cutoff north of High Point, NJ. Reminds me of the blizzard that happened a few years back where Philly South got blasted and our southern zones only got brushed. All of NNJ is still well in excess of 1" QPF but from Orange County northward gets next to nothing. Most of New England would be crying if this verified.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Just took a closer look at the 00z Euro. If you live in this sub-forum you want the low to come at least 50-100 miles further north. As it is, the heaviest precip stays just to south of us with the core of heaviest echos off the SE Jersey shore. The surface freezing line also tends to hang just NW of the city with the 850 freezing line crashing well offshore by the time the best dynamics arrive.

 

Still a MECS but it's the difference between a MECS and something more on the order of a HECS for us.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I think the bigger one follows this one . A blend between the GFS and Euro mayb a better solution , but theres a chance the one behind

comes with a better set up .

Hard IMO for a clipper to come east , stop dig in , stall and blow up like that . So I wouldnt be shocked to see the OP back off a little .

But we will be really unlucky if there isnt one big end game system that rolls up on us with this kind of set up .

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

GFS was a bit amped up in the Midwest then weakens as it headed east. GFS likes to suppress storms. Still a whole week of model watching.

 

You're missing the point. The GFS splits the upper level low over New England (as does the GGEM) and keeps it there. This causes the shortwave of interest to come out of the Pac NW and slide into the southeast states, positively tilted.

 

The Euro has a totally different idea, splitting the upper level low to our north with one piece over the 50/50 position and the other over the Great Lakes. In the below image, the Pac NW shortwave is already phasing with that northern stream entity. So it slides southward, underneath the developing block to its northeast, and creates a tremendous storm over the Mid-Atlantic states. That's the only way the Euro solution can happen.

 

f168.gif

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