Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[NEG NAO]

The MJO doesn't seem dying as the dynamical models predicted before. But this might be good for us anyway, if it gets into phase 8 in March:

 

statphase_full.gif

if the MJO gets into the COD thats good also some of our biggest storms happened when the the MJO was in the COD

[earthlight]

Euro has a light to moderate snow with the storm at Day 7. It has some northern stream interaction with the shortwave that comes out of the Pac...itll be interesting to see how that behaves. I think it's a legitimate threat.

[IsentropicLift]

Euro has a light to moderate snow with the storm at Day 7. It has some northern stream interaction with the shortwave that comes out of the Pac...itll be interesting to see how that behaves. I think it's a legitimate threat.

Looks like the Canadian FWIW

[bluewave]

Nice to see the OP fall into line with the ensembles, instead of being suppressed off the SE Coast like yesterday.

We just need to get this to close off further west so it doesn't bomb a little too far east for us.

 

[SnoSki14]

Do the other show two systems or just one as the gfs has a storm on day 6 and day 8/9?

[MJO812]

Do the other show two systems or just one as the gfs has a storm on day 6 and day 8/9?

 

 

Euro has the 1st storm out to sea.

[Storm At Sea]

Almost all of the GFS ensembles show a coastal system at 192 Hr. I think it's time to throw away the idea of storm #1 and count on storm #2. Storm #1 is vital as it becomes the 50/50 low and forces the northern stream low to the coast with secondary or even primary redevelopment.

[IsentropicLift]

Almost all of the GFS ensembles show a coastal system at 192 Hr. I think it's time to throw away the idea of storm #1 and count on storm #2. Storm #1 is vital as it becomes the 50/50 low and forces the northern stream low to the coast with secondary or even primary redevelopment.

We've seen this before in recent big events, including Boxing Day. We missed out on a smaller coastal a few days before that moved into the 50/50 postion. Lots of blizzards for New England on the individual members and a few close misses for NYC.

[alwaysready126]

We've seen this before in recent big events, including Boxing Day. We missed out on a smaller coastal a few days before that moved into the 50/50 postion. Lots of blizzards for New England on the individual members and a few close misses for NYC.

set up was somewhat different though.  the ridge out west was in much more favorable position.

[Dsnowx53]

We've seen this before in recent big events, including Boxing Day. We missed out on a smaller coastal a few days before that moved into the 50/50 postion. Lots of blizzards for New England on the individual members and a few close misses for NYC.

set up was somewhat different though. the ridge out west was in much more favorable position.

While that is true, we are in March now where our wavelengths are shorter than they are in December. Thus, you can more easily get away with having a ridge east of its ideal position.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

While that is true, we are in March now where our wavelengths are shorter than they are in December. Thus, you can more easily get away with having a ridge east of its ideal position.

 

I was thinking the same exact thing, but I was afraid to post it, considering the cruddy input I had recently. I guess it is plausible.

[ny747pilot]

While that is true, we are in March now where our wavelengths are shorter than they are in December. Thus, you can more easily get away with having a ridge east of its ideal position.

oh the wonderful world of atmospheric physics

[Snow_Miser]

The Euro Ensemble Mean has a pretty nice signal for being so far out in the forecast timeframe, and for being a smoothed out mean. As John said, this may be the system to really pay attention to.

 

[ny747pilot]

I was thinking the same exact thing, but I was afraid to post it, considering the cruddy input I had recently. I guess it is plausible.

likewise it is this type of sub-seasonal variables which has been proposed to answer why short team seasonal forecasts can easily bust , as wavelengths can have a strong effect on pattern set ups, such as PNA in late Feb and beyond

[Snow_Miser]

Quite a few hits on the 18z GEFS for the day 8 storm system:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html

[Heisy]

The wave is going to be there...I think the question is right now is if it will get shredded to bits. 

[Storm At Sea]

It's a damn potent S/W. However, the 50/50 low's confluence along with poor WAA and rising of heights over the SE prevent it from really spreading its wings. A day or two ago, the S/W was being aided by a peice of weaker energy in the STJ...it's nowhere to be found now.

The wave is going to be there...I think the question is right now is if it will get shredded to bits. 

[PB GFI]

JB s first stab at the middle of  next weeks system is for 3-6 with locally 8 from  the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic and then the Northeast , just thought I would post his idea .

 

There is a system around the day 15 range on the Control that has his interest .

That one he seems to think can deepen into something that should really be the focus around here  .

 

Just his thinking for those who care  . 

[Dsnowx53]

The Euro shows a huge cutoff BOMB for the March 6 storm. Looks like a blizzard. 

[Dsnowx53]

Blizzard from VA through NYC at 192 and 198 hours. Wow. This thing is cutoff from 546 to like 528 dam. Ridiculous. It phases with that northern stream energy pretty quickly, and that annoying ULL energy moves away, allowing this thing to take off. 

[earthlight]

Wow...the Euro has a massive snowstorm Days 7-8 (through next Thursday). The northern stream goes wild and completely phases in..dropping as far south as the Mid-Atlantic states. Surface low doesn't get much farther north than Ocean City NJ but plenty of precip...looks like a KU H5 map at 192.

[Dsnowx53]

Central NJ and south gets 2"+ of QPF. 

[CooL]

That run was INSANE

 

please have a clue euro

 

It phases in that PV lobe over the lakes and the rest is history

[WE GOT HIM]

Hopefully this is one of those big storms the Euro holds all the way through.

[atownwxwatcher]

Central NJ and south gets 2"+ of QPF. 

Would that include the PHL area or just jersey?

[Dsnowx53]

It's nice for the modeled pattern to actually produce a huge snowstorm at the surface on a model run for once. The other two "threats" never showed much for us at the surface during any run. 

Of course, one run in itself doesn't mean that much. But it does tell you that the laws of physics do theoretically support a snowstorm.

 

Combine this with the GFS being too far SE, and we can lock this one up!  

[Dsnowx53]

Would that include the PHL area or just jersey?

 

 

PHL is also in the 2" QPF contour. 

[Dsnowx53]

The winter of 08-09 was generally a very progressive/nina "type" winter, but in early March, we were actually able to capitalize on a "bad" pattern because of the shorter wavelengths. Of course, that storm screwed over some people, but it was still a pretty widespread event. 

I'm not saying that we shouldn't be at all concerned about the fact that the ridge out west rolls east as this event develops. But it's less of a concern than it normally would be. As long as we can get that messy energy offshore to move out of the way, heights will rise out ahead of our shortwave and it can slow down, giving time for the block to do its work and force the Lakes energy southward and into our shortwave.

[Dsnowx53]

On this run, the ridge out west moves eastward, but because of the block and the energy in the Lakes, it comes to a halt. The ridge and the energy in the Lakes make a collision of sorts, which actually helps to make the flow more meridional. That combined with the block makes it very easy for the Lakes energy to dive down into our shortwave when it's in Missouri. From then, the storm just absolutely takes off. 

[Neblizzard]

On this run, the ridge out west moves eastward, but because of the block and the energy in the Lakes, it comes to a halt. The ridge and the energy in the Lakes make a collision of sorts, which actually helps to make the flow more meridional. That combined with the block makes it very easy for the Lakes energy to dive down into our shortwave when it's in Missouri. From then, the storm just absolutely takes off.

If we were to get a storm, the middle of next week is the absolute perfect timeframe. Like you said the ridge out west moving east wouldn't be a concern. There is a monster 50/50 low just east of NF and plenty of blocking over eastern Canada. A cut off "bowling ball" scenario would be very likely if that setup is correct.