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Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

Dsnowx53

By Dsnowx53,
in New York City Metro

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Euro develops a massive block with a lot of cold air throughout the run. Insane. A lot of opportunities will persist once the blocking eases up a bit.

You want a stronger block as we enter March as a weaker block probably won't cut it in terms of bringing the cold air in. A lot will depend on the trough axis and the southern stream and positioning of ULLs as well.

12zecmwfnao.gif

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Zir0b

Zir0b

Posted
Posted

After the big upper level trough moves out of the picture and begins to elongate (post day 5), there should still be a good cold air source with the blocking to the north forcing the upper level low to essentially elongate over Southeast Canada. The shortwave(s) that dive over the top of the Pac ridge beyond that post (see the 12z GFS at 180 hr) should then have a chance to amplify and provide us with snowfall potential.

Euro Day 10

12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

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Zir0b

Zir0b

Posted
Posted

I think the Day 6 potential is still worth watching though the chances are not that great... 12z euro looks to me like it would try to pop a surface reflection closer to the coast if it doesn't hang energy back in the Southwest...

 

 

HPC:

 

 

"...UPSTREAM...A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILLDROP SEWD THROUGH THE WRN US THU/D3. DIGGING ENERGY WILL FEED MORESHARPLY INTO THE S-CENTRAL US BY FRI TO THE LEE OF A RAPIDLYAMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL E-CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH AND WRN USRIDGE COUPLET DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. THIS LEADS TO QUITE ANAMPLIFIED WRN US RIDGE AND COLD ERN US TROUGH... POSITIVE PNAPATTERN... BY SAT/D5 JUST AS HEIGHT RISES FEED WESTWARD FROMGREENLAND INTO ERN CANADA AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS MAY LEAD TOERN US COASTAL LOW POTENTIAL SAT-MON AND HPC MANUAL PROGS SHOWMODERATE DEVELOPMENT BUT THE PATTERN FAVORS OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT.500MB STANDARDIZED HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FCST TO DROP TO -3.5 OR SOCENTERED OVER FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS 10-15 DEG FBELOW NORMAL...."
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Storm At Sea

Storm At Sea

Posted
Posted

What agreement on the GFS ensembles? I see some of the members have the threat, but overall, I don't see any valid single threat. They are certainly picking up on several different S/W's possibly developing. I suspect that the period of March 3-March 8 could be our best bet as the NAO sharply rises. We always fail to point out on this board that is pretty rare to have a snow event following a significant snow event. I think we realize it, but we don't talk about it. Point being...good snows for NYC/PHL area don't occur when solid blocking stays entrenched, but instead, when a war commences and the NAO becomes shifty. FWIW, Euro ensemble show a very, very significant snowstorm.

 

Also...weenie alert...but Euro is very close to a triple phase at 228 Hr. Northern stream bowling balls get me nervous in march....add the STJ....and well....you know what happened once in the early 90's...just sayin

 

The Euro ensembles are carrying a northern stream development days 8-10 instead of a low

getting suppressed off the SE Coast. It's unusual too see agreement from the GFS at this

range also.

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_240.gif

 

attachicon.giff228.gif

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

More often than not, significant/strong blocking episodes favor our area as they start to weaken. Many people tend to forget that December 26 2010 occurred as the strongest blocking was actually weakening. The very robust blocking episode from Dec 10-20 kept the storm track east and out to sea. But more often than not, when the ULL over the east coast elongates over Southeasf Canada and gets trapped under the blocking, we can see a 5-10 day potential for wintry events.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

The 12z Euro ensemble mean has surface low coming out the southern plains with the upper-level trough at 192hr. Then it looses the surface low at 216hr. Maybe do to a larger spread in the slp at the range. However with the upper-level trough  tilting negative over OH Valley and 50/50 low lifting out, I think there is probably storm along over VA/NC coast. At 240hr, there is surface low again south of Nova Scotia.

 

post-187-0-11505000-1361828423_thumb.gif

 

post-187-0-92924800-1361828217_thumb.gif

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

What agreement on the GFS ensembles? I see some of the members have the threat, but overall, I don't see any valid single threat. They are certainly picking up on several different S/W's possibly developing. I suspect that the period of March 3-March 8 could be our best bet as the NAO sharply rises. We always fail to point out on this board that is pretty rare to have a snow event following a significant snow event. I think we realize it, but we don't talk about it. Point being...good snows for NYC/PHL area don't occur when solid blocking stays entrenched, but instead, when a war commences and the NAO becomes shifty. FWIW, Euro ensemble show a very, very significant snowstorm.

 

Also...weenie alert...but Euro is very close to a triple phase at 228 Hr. Northern stream bowling balls get me nervous in march....add the STJ....and well....you know what happened once in the early 90's...just sayin

 

Take a look at the shortwave that they all have in the Gulf of Alaska at 120 hrs. The spread in solutions gives you the weaker

looking surface reflection in the means by D8-10. The blocking will be too strong for the disturbance to cut, but it may get suppressed

off the Middle Atlantic coast if the flow stays too progressive. Keep an eye on later runs to see if we close off at H500 which

would mean a bowling ball cutting under the block with more amplification, but it's way too early to guess on that now.

 

 

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Storm At Sea

Storm At Sea

Posted
Posted

CooL...you are better than that! It's truncation dude...just look at H5....that's a 5-10 inch storm for our area. 50/50 low is intense and would keep us snow (850 mb winds stay mostly NNE). It's the same system that the Euro lost at sea (it could not close off the 850 mb low) and the Euro ensembles were going bonkers over. This is the type of situation that sneaks up on many.

 

Verbatim, it's like a 1" event on tonights run

 

MECS?

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CooL

CooL

Posted
Posted

CooL...you are better than that! It's truncation dude...just look at H5....that's a 5-10 inch storm for our area. 50/50 low is intense and would keep us snow (850 mb winds stay mostly NNE). It's the same system that the Euro lost at sea (it could not close off the 850 mb low) and the Euro ensembles were going bonkers over. This is the type of situation that sneaks up on many.

 

What it has verbatim and what we think it should've had are 2 different things..just wanted to clear that up

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

The Euro's day 9 threat shows up much further south on its control run , so I would like the see the Euro ensembles .

With the NAO forecasted to be 2 and 3 SD below normal it doesn't argue for a center off HSE to turn left ,

However both the GFS and the Euro both a see the system at this time frame so I guess it's something to think about.

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Zir0b

Zir0b

Posted
Posted

Am I the only one intrigued by the Day 5-6 threat? Last night's 0Z models @ 120 hrs:

f120.gif

 

 

f120.gif

 

 

f120.gif

 

 

 

 

I may be grasping for straws here but I wouldn't be surprised to see the models pop a deeper and closer to the coast low if the trends continue, this one is certainly more worthy of being tracked than the last few "threats" we had since 2/8

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
Posted

Am I the only one intrigued by the Day 5-6 threat? Last night's 0Z models @ 120 hrs:

f120.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I may be grasping for straws here but I wouldn't be surprised to see the models pop a deeper and closer to the coast low if the trends continue, this one is certainly more worthy of being tracked than the last few "threats" we had since 2/8

The trof is to positively tilted. It needs to negative told faster which is why you are getting the storm forming and moving offshore.

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Zir0b

Zir0b

Posted
Posted

The trof is to positively tilted. It needs to negative told faster which is why you are getting the storm forming and moving offshore.

yes, i'm just saying last night's runs were an improvement. Might not and probably wont mean anything in the end except for the fisherman 

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Zir0b

Zir0b

Posted
Posted

The EURO from Day 6-9 is so close to the "BIG ONE" in fact it shows a full phase by 240 hrs but it's too far off shore. All the models are showing this wave now even with the shortwave associated with the storm not in a good observation zone....Just keep trending stronger baby 

There's another wave after that one, if this threat falls through 

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