Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[Edge Weather]

If you split the difference between the GFS and the Euro, you end up with a coastal storm, which is pretty much what the Canadian shows, or close to it.  This depiction of the Euro is rather strange, at 240 hrs it has a 980 warm core low centered south of the Benchmark, having transferred from West Virginia 12 hours before?  Really strange.

[Edge Weather]

We were talking about two different storms. The storm for the 26th is a cutter no matter how you slice the cake. The only hope we have is that it transfers to the coast. The GFS shows the transfer to a weak storm hugging just inside the coast and moving right over us. The Euro doesn't have this at all.

 

For the March threat it pulls the storm up the Apps before a sloppy transfer just south of us. All rain verbatim anyway.

 

Ok, I thought you were talking about the March 1 Storm. 

[IsentropicLift]

Ok, I thought you were talking about the March 1 Storm. 

I know that which is the same mistake that All Snow was making. This is why we can not have one general thread. Too confusing.

[IsentropicLift]

If you split the difference between the GFS and the Euro, you end up with a coastal storm, which is pretty much what the Canadian shows, or close to it.  This depiction of the Euro is rather strange, at 240 hrs it has a 980 warm core low centered south of the Benchmark, having transferred from West Virginia 12 hours before?  Really strange.

In reality it's never going to come up the Apps.

[nzucker]

The problem is the high-amplitude blocking pattern drains a lot of the cold air out of Canada, replacing it with milder air. All of the arctic air has retreated to the Eurasian side, so you're dealing with a marginal airmass at a time when daily averages are starting to increase. 

 

At Day 10, the 12z ECM OP shows a building ridge over the West Coast. If that ridge can amplify into northwest Canada, the next threat (which you can see forming with the cut-off low in the Desert Southwest) would have a much better airmass to work with. I think people might have to be patient and wait for the 3/1 and maybe even 3/4-3/5 threats before they witness another significant snowfall. The good thing is the analogs and blocking patterns suggest we'll see at least one more SECS/MECS before spring takes over in about 6 weeks. 

[CooL]

You can see on the day 8-10 height anomalies that the GFS wants to slip the energy underneath the block and keeps the lakes low further east..Euro is not showing this yet

 

[nzucker]

You can see on the day 8-10 height anomalies that the GFS wants to slip the energy underneath the block and keeps the lakes low further east..Euro is not showing this yet

 

 

The height field on the GFS is oriented a little bit better for the 3/1 threat as the highest heights in the blocking NAO region are further north; the Aleutian low is also stronger, which should increase the west-coast ridging and potential split flow, which leads to this being a major threat. The ECM doesn't look bad, but we want that ridge to poke more into Greenland and gain some latitude for this threat.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z Canadian ensemble mean has a big storm signal but holds off the main threat until around March 3rd.

[PB GFI]

12z european ensemble 240 hr. Smokin. Fantasy EC blizzard.

[IsentropicLift]

12z european ensemble 240 hr. Smokin. Fantasy EC blizzard.

 

Are you able to post a link?

[Zir0b]

12z european ensemble 240 hr. Smokin. Fantasy EC blizzard.

Anything for the weekend?

[bluewave]

Are you able to post a link?

 

The ensemble mean is colder with a track just to our east.

 

 

 

 

[CooL]

Looks like the euro ensembles are leaning towards the gefs in terms of the blocking evolution

[Edge Weather]

The Control run of the Euro just came out and has a very similar evolution as the operational run, but it consolidates the low sooner as a 978mb over southern Maryland at 234 hrs, or just west of the southern Delmarva, causing 850's to crash just in time as the storm reaches our latitude.  The storm then slides out to the east and keeps the main precipitation just to our south.  Interesting solution.  It actually stalls out the Tuesday storm (which it shows possibly as snow or mostly snow) and it kind of dies out over us, then collapses what is left of it into the main storm as it heads north on Thursday and Friday.  We shall see. 

[PB GFI]

Anything for the weekend?

The 12z Control run is a little more in line with the operational , the weekend is a little muted , it shunts the system enough that the core of precip is south and east . It does make an attempt to snow in SNE including Long Island at hr 120 , so I think you watch that .

 

The NAO is neg , so its just easier to pull the colder air to the coastal plain thats why im not  worried about rain as much as I am  a whiff .

 

The one thing Ive seen over the years is the atmosphere sometimes gets into a patern where it like to or doesnt like to snow . In this case for our area it SE CT and E Long Island , and ( SNE not our area )  , and I still think thats on the table for the weekend .

For us in  CNJ I  dont like the set up as much sitting here 4 days out .

 

After that , the Control gives us several chances with systems that roll  under the block and redevelop off HSE .Think at least one of them find the slot in the next 10 days  . ( so does the Euro ensembles ) .

[Isotherm]

That Feb 26 thread went down the tubes really quickly and was all banter, so I deleted that thread and started this one. There is always the chance we could pull a rabbit out of our hats on Sunday night, despite the poor H5 look, but the pattern won't truly turn favorable until after the Feb 26 cutter, IMO, as we'll finally have non bootleg blocking with ridging building out west. Early March holds promise.

Let's get this discussion started, and keep the banter to the banter thread.

 

 

Strongly agree. Once we see some expansion of the blocking and a PNA spike out west, low heights should develop underneath the -NAO and offer a couple chances for east coast cyclogenesis in the Feb 28-March 7th period. Right now I think the period around March 1st holds the most promise, but the window of opportunity extends through the first week of March.

[CooL]

Long range Euro showing major potential with a +PNA and a robust west based block

[CooL]

Sandy esq block with a raging +PNA, holy moly

[SnoSki14]

The blocking and PNA riding look pretty insane going forward. You can forget about a Morch this year (at least the first half) if the models and pattern evolution is correct, which it looks like it will be. 

 

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we got snow out of the system this weekend, the one right after it, and especially the early March threat. I think the models will struggle with how they evolve the storms, how they transfer to the coast, and the temperature profiles when compared to reality.

 

For example, this mornings gfs, which came in colder both at the surface and aloft with the storm, kind of shows a miller B transfer with the 26 storm but then it back off somewhat, very odd given the blocking pattern in place already. Then the early March storm cuts the primary way too far north given the strong block in place and transfers right along the coast. 

 

None of the primary lows are very strong, which makes me wonder why they hang on so long given the strong blocking and drive so much warm air in our area. Finally in the far range, it depicts a massive PNA, massive -NAO and gives us a huge storm post 240 hrs. 

 

I think our chance at snow is really starting this weekend through at least March 10, with the best chance Feb 28- March 8. I'd be very happy if I was in SNE/NE right now as they have a much better chance at scoring with all of these events, could be a historic end of winter for them. 

[bluewave]

This may take a while for the models to get the right solution for the March 1st potential. The timing of the

phase with the SW energy will be critical as to determining the track of the low. It may be a scenario that

favors eastern areas more since any delay would result in a more easterly solution. But it's too early to

know yet and all options are still on the table.

 

 

 

[Edge Weather]

The Wednesday Morning 2/20 Control run of the Euro produces a historical Nor'easter for the East Coast with a 1002mb low developing in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico at 192 hrs, deepening to 998mb over southern Georgia at 198 hrs, then consolidating it at 204 hrs over South Carolina and deepening it to 984mb, then at 210 hrs it has a 974mb low over Eastern North Carolina, then at 216 hrs it has a 972mb low sitting right over Cape Hatteras, with snow starting in our area, then at 222 hrs it has a 968mb low about 150 miles east of the Delmarva with moderate to heavy wind-swept snow falling throughout our area, at 228 hrs it has a 968mb low about 200 miles east of the New Jersey Coast with heavy wind-swept snow continuing throughout our area and from Maine to Virginia with a beautiful wrap-around, at 234 hrs the low is situated southeast of the Benchmark with heavy, wind-swept wrap around snow continuing, at 240 hrs we still have light to moderate snow falling, and this continues through 300 hrs as the storm gets elongated back to Missouri at one point due to the strong blocking.  We shall see.

[Zir0b]

Anyone else concerned about the lack of cold? In another 7-10 days, the cold gets even more stale than it is right now, with arctic air on the other side of the of the pole. Even with fantastic blocking and a perfect benchmark track,  any storm we get could end up being an elevation event. 

[Allsnow]

Anyone else concerned about the lack of cold? In another 7-10 days, the cold gets even more stale than it is right now, with arctic air on the other side of the of the pole. Even with fantastic blocking and a perfect benchmark track, any storm we get could end up being an elevation event.

We are losing our cold air source. So we will have to make do with this rotting air. It will only modify as the weeks go. The sooner the better for snow chances to the coast in the coming weeks

[Edge Weather]

Anyone else concerned about the lack of cold? In another 7-10 days, the cold gets even more stale than it is right now, with arctic air on the other side of the of the pole. Even with fantastic blocking and a perfect benchmark track,  any storm we get could end up being an elevation event. 

 

Any storm that takes the correct off shore track will have enough cold air with this set-up.  Of course, if they cut inland that is a different story.

[MJO812]

The mid to long range Euro is looking pretty sweet. Major blocking with a nice + PNA. The big storm for the 1st week of March is now OTS on the Euro.

[Edge Weather]

The mid to long range Euro is looking pretty sweet. Major blocking with a nice + PNA. The big storm for the 1st week of March is now OTS on the Euro.

 

Yes, but did you see my post above about the Control run of the Euro?  It does better with the track of many of the major storms to affect our area than the operational run of the model.  It did better with the recent blizzard when the operational run showed a miss to the East, it clearly showed a major hit in our area, and it did better with the track of the October 29, 2011 major snowstorm here as well.  I don't see this storm being out to sea. 

[IsentropicLift]

Yes, but did you see my post above about the Control run of the Euro?  It does better with the track of many of the major storms to affect our area than the operational run of the model.  It did better with the recent blizzard when the operational run showed a miss to the East, it clearly showed a major hit in our area, and it did better with the track of the October 29, 2011 major snowstorm here as well.  I don't see this storm being out to sea. 

So the control run delays the storm some? I'll be in Florida from February 27th until the morning of March 3rd. I'm of course hopeful that this threat is delayed till after my return.

[Edge Weather]

So the control run delays the storm some? I'll be in Florida from February 27th until the morning of March 3rd. I'm of course hopeful that this threat is delayed till after my return.

 

This is the third storm.  We have the one this weekend, then the one on Tuesday night, then this one for next Thursday night through next weekend.

[Edge Weather]

and in about 5 hours it wont show anything close to this...has this control run you speak of (daily) ever, 1) not shown a HUGE snowstorm and 2) been correct?

 

This is not the first run it has shown something similar to this.  Did you not read my post above?  Read it again if you did not.  This model did better with the track of the recent blizzard and the October 29, 2011 snowstorm here. 

[bluewave]

We are losing our cold air source. So we will have to make do with this rotting air. It will only modify as the weeks go. The sooner the better for snow chances to the coast in the coming weeks

 

The timing of the two streams and the possible phasing or not will make the difference here. With stale cld air in place, all

we need is the upper low to close off in time for snow here. The risk is that it occurs a little too late and eastern sections

do better like we have seen so far this season. But this threat is still so far out that we won't know for sure some time.