MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z gefs show some members close to the coast at 180 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 While models might now show a big storm, I think something could happen, it's possible this occurs as the nao goes from negative to positive as is common with most storms. When u have freezing temperatures aloft down to nearly Miami in early March, big things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This week has been brutal. Everyday I am hooked on the models because with the pattern I feel eventually we'll get a major threat, yet everyday all we get is a giant ULL with no surface reflection ha. Maybe tonight is the night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This week has been brutal. Everyday I am hooked on the models because with the pattern I feel eventually we'll get a major threat, yet everyday all we get is a giant ULL with no surface reflection ha. Maybe tonight is the night! This winter it's impossible to get excited unless the storm's on your doorstep. The 2/8 blizzard was a tortuous and agonizing 4 days of tracking when we were on the tightrope the whole time. That's how storms usually work out for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NIce little trend on the 00z GFS day 7...Aint gonna cut it but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NIce little trend on the 00z GFS day 7...Aint gonna cut it but something to keep an eye on. The Ull moved out of the way at 120. It was still squashing the heights on this run though. It's good to see a storm develop on the GFS,even though it stay offshore. We need the ULL to get out of the way quicker. Not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah, this run definitely showed improvements. The PNA ridge was more meridional, which allowed the heights to respond downstream a bit more. Also, the ULL was quicker to get out of the way. It still squashed the Atlantic heights, but it would not have taken many changes to produce a stronger solution. If the ULL were where it was at 159 hours 12 hours earlier (at hour 147 instead), then I think this run would have been a MECS. Regardless, there is actually a decent surface reflection, which is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 A couple of really nice setups on the GFS. Something has to give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Ukie at 72 hours http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=072 Rain for the area but this system is trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 There is ZERO on the Euro to even be a bit excited about over the next 10 days and 15 if one looks at the Control . Its just not 1 run , its been showing the trough axis too far East for our benefit now throughout the entire weekend . I choose to ignore anything the GFS past 5 days . There really maybe nothing here as Its possible its just cold and dry It doesnt matter that the PNA is pos and that the NAO is neg , its just translating to shunting downstream ,as the trough axis is just wrong . After this cold stretch that may last thru mid March , I am starting to think severe weather isn`t too far behind , and that for Winter , it may not be midnite yet , but it may be 1130 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 6z GFS shows a really active pattern unfolding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 6z GFS shows a really active pattern unfolding The issue my man that it may look diff by 12z. Just not a lot of continuity w this model. Without the euro honking. The pattern doesnt yield a lot of promise for me. Its getting late u really r playin beat the clock now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The problem with the March 3rd - 4th system is the trough axis is to far east which forces the storm on modeling to develop off the southeast coast then move too far offshore up the coast. The March 6th - 7th system is of more interest because the negative NAO is building further south and west across southern Canada which also brings the trough axis further west so the new storm on the day 10 Euro develops further west in the deep south and then swings around into the southeast with a nice block in place - so we have to watch the Euro especially in future runs to see if the March 6th - 7th system is for real......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Such an impressive -EPO/-NAO pattern on the 0z ECM, especially out at Day 9-10. Seeing 850s of -16C just north of the area in early March is pretty impressive. Might have a couple days that don't break freezing for highs despite sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think best chance of a storm is after the day 9-10 period. Gonna have to go through a boring cold & dry week on these forums unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 if the AO tanks below -4.000 we have a great chance of one last blast...not to mention a cold spring...but the long range is only make believe...fantasy is another word that comes to mind...I hope they are right this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The problem with the March 3rd - 4th system is the trough axis is to far east which forces the storm on modeling to develop off the southeast coast then move too far offshore up the coast. The March 6th - 7th system is of more interest because the negative NAO is building further south and west across southern Canada which also brings the trough axis further west so the new storm on the day 10 Euro develops further west in the deep south and then swings around into the southeast with a nice block in place - so we have to watch the Euro especially in future runs to see if the March 6th - 7th system is for real......... The March 6-7 system is somewhat dependent on March 3-4 system tracking far enough west, to enhance the -NAO and 50/50 low pattern. Which forces the trough axis farther west. If the March 3-4 is going too far out to sea, the 6-7 will likely go out to sea too. This same scenario may play out for other threats that follow closely behind, as well. Unless we get the West Coast ridge to position itself nicely enough, cause these dig and phase further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Orientation of the trough is an improvement over the 0z run of the GFS, but we're going to need a much stronger shortwave to amplify the trough further and spark cyclogenesis closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The blocking and pna will stay but time is ticking. Every day going forward becomes more unfavorable for snow even as the pattern remains favorable and below normal. I'd say we have until mid March to get something before it gets too late. I know we could see snow late March into early April but the odds are highly against it and I'm not sure how long the blocking will last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Overrunning event 228-240 on 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Overrunning event 228-240 on 12Z GFS As modeled it's a snowstorm for interior New England and light rain for us. Everything is too far northeast once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 GFS looks great I believe you meant to post that in the banter thread... In any event, the next threat looks to be around the March 7-8 time frame from a northern stream trough that amplifies and bombs out a hair too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I believe you meant to post that in the banter thread... In any event, the next threat looks to be around the March 7-8 time frame from a northern stream trough that amplifies and bombs out a hair too late for us. that's according to the GFS...GGEM @180 hrs looks like it might amplify a hair too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 After the big upper level trough moves out of the picture and begins to elongate (post day 5), there should still be a good cold air source with the blocking to the north forcing the upper level low to essentially elongate over Southeast Canada. The shortwave(s) that dive over the top of the Pac ridge beyond that post (see the 12z GFS at 180 hr) should then have a chance to amplify and provide us with snowfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think the Day 6 potential is still worth watching though the chances are not that great... 12z euro looks to me like it would try to pop a surface reflection closer to the coast if it doesn't hang energy back in the Southwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 There's clearly a lot of potential as long as the pattern remains in place and up till mid March probably. Then again the block could hold out beyond that, some insane cold (even for winter) on the long range gfs as we approach mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro develops a massive block with a lot of cold air throughout the run. Insane. A lot of opportunities will persist once the blocking eases up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 According to NE forum the EURO is quite a bit colder for wednesday system, do we see some flakes here in the beginning before a quick changeover, or just a colder rain? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 According to NE forum the EURO is quite a bit colder for wednesday system, do we see some flakes here in the beginning before a quick changeover, or just a colder rain? -skisheep Northwest of the City has a chance of snow. The coast is plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 According to NE forum the EURO is quite a bit colder for wednesday system, do we see some flakes here in the beginning before a quick changeover, or just a colder rain? -skisheep Looking at the Text Output, the NW Burbs see a thump of snow, before a chilly rain commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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