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Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

Dsnowx53

By Dsnowx53,
in New York City Metro

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

PB GFI, of course verbatim it would be east, BUT the setup is there. The 12z EURO actually has a pretty awesome look at 240 hrs too, though it's in fantasy land. I just find it hard to believe we'll escape a +PNA and -NAO with nothing...its def possible, but we just need to catch a break.

Yeh , when the euro sees a SW in the slot I'm gona get excited. The set up is a terrific one Doesn't mean it yields anything.

I'm sure it's just frustration but I'm sure if this was may we would have no prob dropping 4 inches of rain over the area.

Back to now , the euro ensembles seem to b wide rifght so that's kind of where I live. The GFS has zero continuity from run to run and the

I agree the day 10 euro could b holding some energy back but since it isn't on the ensembles I'm a Iil weary

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

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On this run yeah..But the trough axis was fine, it was just the ull over the northeast that didn't get out of the way fast enough. If that happens we would have seen a better solution on the surface. All of the pieces are there though

 

 

Yeah. The pieces looked great this run. If the lobes of the ULL actually completely split, this run probably would have produced, like the GGEM. The lobes of the ULL staying ever so slightly connected led the western lobe to be a tad too far east, and the eastern lobe to be a tad too far west. 

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ny747pilot

ny747pilot

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The great thing about the pattern IMO is that we have the ingredients for a BIG ONE. It's like cooking. You can give someone the recipe, but if they can't cook you get crap. We have the ingredients at least, we're halfway there. I am very excited even though there isn't a big storm showing up on the models except the GGEM

Exactly. With the models, especially this far out, we just need to look for the pieces of the puzzle. This puzzle has a plethora of pieces and the models are going to have trouble with all the components of this pattern. Just have to keep looking to see that the pieces are there. When it gets to within around 84 hours that's when I usually start looking to see how the storm wil come together.

EdIt: btw, the dynamics of the pattern so far this year due to progressiveness and other factors is either go big or go home, so well see

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jm1220

jm1220

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Yeah. The pieces looked great this run. If the lobes of the ULL actually completely split, this run probably would have produced, like the GGEM. The lobes of the ULL staying ever so slightly connected led the western lobe to be a tad too far east, and the eastern lobe to be a tad too far west. 

I could also see this turning to strung-out crap like the storm last weekend. Hopefully this is a pattern that produces but if these amazing pieces assemble out over the open ocean we're again staring at cirrus while eastern NE and Nova Scotia get raked. I agree though that it should become a nice storm somewhere.

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Storm At Sea

Storm At Sea

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No...BL issues throughout Florida. In any case, it's not really about amplification along the EC. The real issue is the long wave pattern of this next system which causes widespread cyclonic flow over the eastern 2/3 of the nation, preventing any real cyclogenesis. As several on here have stated, significant low pressure systems aloft don't like being near each other...at all. With a significant upper level low parked and meandering over the NE, it will take days to allow any short wave from rounding the mean trough and actually causing cyclogenesis. Day 10 Euro tonight shows a decent Miller A (with penty of cold air around to boot). GFS is high and dry.

Real snow in Florida?

attachicon.gifsnowinflorida.gif

Impressive trough with very cold weather, perhaps record-breaking in the Deep South for March, but can we get amplification?

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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what did the euro show last night for Tues Night/Wed?  Upton mentioned in their AFD it was a cold solution (compared to other guidance anyway)  How do the interior sections do?

 

It was similar to the 12z UKMET that just came out.  It has the 850 line running just north of us, basically through Southern New York State.  Nothing in our immediate area except for maybe some sleet right at the beginning.

post-1914-0-30572500-1361728098_thumb.gi

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rgwp96

rgwp96

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It was similar to the 12z UKMET that just came out.  It has the 850 line running just north of us, basically through Southern New York State.  Nothing in our immediate area except for maybe some sleet right at the beginning.

not that euro i saw, had 850s through nj(rt 78 area as precip made it here) than retreaded to the area u have after 6 hrs of precip, mt  holly really concerned of major icing in nw areas after a few hrs of sleet or even snow

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Zir0b

Zir0b

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There are definitely some signs on the 12z models of some potential for around Monday of next week, but all of them are still too far off shore. 

agree, blocking is firmly established by then, just need to get the right "kink" in the trough. easier said then done of course

f180.gif

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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at 66hrs Euro has the 850 line running along Rt. 80, snow in Sussex County.  Then it retreats just north of us by 72 hrs.  Snow at High Point.  At 78 hrs, it tucks it again just south and east of Sussex County with snow again in Sussex County.  This is getting interesting for NW zones.  It has a little light snow or flurries for all of us on Wednesday night.  Wednesday during the day does get toasty though. Verbatim, it is like 1-3 inches of snow in Sussex County, followed by rain, then possibly back to a little snow before ending, then it gets toasty on Wednesday during the day, then a little light snow again on Wednesday night.  Areas across Northern New Jersey would likely see a bit of sleet at the start, but it should quickly turn to rain as there is a warm wedge of air in there even though the 850 line runs along Rt. 80, except for Sussex County, but then even they over to rain with the warm push on Tuesday night.  The surface temps are pretty much going to be above freezing everywhere though, except possibly at the highest elevations, so this does not look like a widespread ice situation according to the Euro.

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bmc10

bmc10

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Posted

at 66hrs Euro has the 850 line running along Rt. 80, snow in Sussex County.  Then it retreats just north of us by 72 hrs.  Snow at High Point.  At 78 hrs, it tucks it again just south and east of Sussex County with snow again in Sussex County.  This is getting interesting for NW zones.  It has a little light snow or flurries for all of us on Wednesday night.  Wednesday during the day does get toasty though.

 

 

Yea but with the primary well to the west there are some warm layers that models are showing. If you look at the entire profile, it does not support snow throughout. 

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MJO812

MJO812

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Posted

Very interesting situation on the 12z Euro with the Sunday/Monday potential.  Deep trough down into the Gulf with moisture streaming north to the coastal Carolinas and a low pressure area is starting to take shape at 162 hrs, but it looks to again be going too far off shore at 168 hrs. 

 

Just like the GGEM.

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

Interesting discussion. Anyone want to take a guess what he is trying to say toward the end?

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

VALID 12Z WED FEB 27 2013 - 12Z SUN MAR 03 2013

WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IN FULL SWING AND TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST DAYS 3/4.
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT...A WET PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND COLDER CANADIAN AIR
SURGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL PACKAGES...THE MANUAL GRAPHICS DID
FIND THE 24/00Z EC ENSEMBLE MEANS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS 4-5
00Z CYCLE RUNS...WITH THE 24/06Z GEFS MEAN IN LOCKSTEP WITH THE
KEY FEATURES OF THE FLOW PATTERN. THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC BEYOND DAY 5...TO TREND AWAY FROM
THE GFS PACKAGE.

FOR DAY 5-7...THE OVERALL THEME IN THE FLOW PATTERN FOR NORTH
AMERICA IS FOR A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN TO BECOME A MAINSTAY ALONG THE
WEST COAST...WITH THE 'SPLIT' OCCURRING INVOF 45N-50N 140W AND
DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW REAPPEARING ALONG 40N LATITUDE FROM THE
LOWER MO VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE DELMARVA. ALONG THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ORIGINATING IN
WEST CENTRAL CANADA WILL LIKELY BE A SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION. THE ONE CHALLENGE AND WITH LITTLE DETAIL AT
THE MOMENT...WILL BE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN ENERGETIC SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHICH INVARIABLY DEVELOPS ONCE THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FEATURE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.

WHAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT PRECURSOR THIS SEASON...TO THE
TRANSITION PATTERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THAT THE
MAINLAND WILL BE OBSERVING AROUND THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...IS A DEEP SYSTEM AND VORTEX IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SHEARING OUT A MODERATE CUTOFF/CLOSED
MID-LEVEL TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAI'I. IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY
DAYS 6-7...WE ARE SEEING MORE OF THIS PATTERN EMERGING IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC.

VOJTESAK

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