Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[NEG NAO]

You can see the wave I'm talking about forming on the GFS @ 189 hrs. 

then it goes a few hundred miles too far east

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12204.gif

[Heisy]

then it goes a few hundred miles too far east

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12204.gi

 

Yea.....after the model loses its resolution...Still it is a much better setup than the one you guys are looking at. Tom is right...We don't have separation of the two waves...The 700mb low is in a terrible position. Too much low level warm air...

[Zir0b]

Yea.....after the model loses its resolution...Still it is a much better setup than the one you guys are looking at. Tom is right...We don't have separation of the two waves...The 700mb low is in a terrible position. Too much low level warm air...

deja vu...every shortwave looks good 180 hrs out. The odds of snow apart from  scattered snowshowers does not look good if a broad vortex is rotting away on top of the northeast.  a week from now at this point I'm rooting for the block to break down quickly and for +10c 850s to start showing up near our area on the long range models 

[Zelocita Weather]

Monster NAO on the long range GFS....

 

Cold/Stormy also through the run...tough to see any specific threats at this point but Im sure one will 'pop-up' at one point over the next 2 weeks. Probably 4-5 days out one will come out of nowhere...be surprised if in lat Feb early March with this type of pattern we get shut out.

[NEG NAO]

Monster NAO on the long range GFS....

 

Cold/Stormy also through the run...tough to see any specific threats at this point but Im sure one will 'pop-up' at one point over the next 2 weeks. Probably 4-5 days out one will come out of nowhere...be surprised if in lat Feb early March with this type of pattern we get shut out.

I wouldn't be surprised if we got shut out - NOTHING on modeling indicates favorable positioning of all the different players - BUT like you said if something does pop up it will only give us a few days warning

[Edge Weather]

12z UKMET

[Guest Pamela]

too warm at the surface and the hours after that still too warm - ULL is in the wrong place for NYC Metro snow

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps120.gif

Meh...it has 30's over most of the area at 7:00 AM Thursday morning and I would expect them to fall during the day as the low moves away and strengthens....and the GFS has a horrendous time forecasting 2m temperatures around here. 

[NEG NAO]

Meh...it has 30's over most of the area at 7:00 AM Thursday morning and I would expect them to fall during the day as the low moves away and strengthens....and the GFS has a horrendous time forecasting 2m temperatures around here. 

so you are saying the secondary that develops will generate its own cold air ?

[Guest Pamela]

so you are saying the secondary that develops will generate its own cold air ?

 

I mean these things are hard to say...but generally some slightly colder air might be tapped as winds strenghten out of the north...only problem is the area of precip may be winding down.  W/o looking at any snowfall chart...I'd say the 12z GFS puts down 5 to 10 inches of snow Thursday afternoon and evening as close as northern Fairfield and Litchfield counties in CT...maybe 30 miles north of NYC. 

[MJO812]

You can see the wave I'm talking about forming on the GFS @ 189 hrs. 

 

Here is the 2nd wave that you are talking about. GGEM.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=204&fixhh=1&hh=216

[Edge Weather]

12z Canadian would be epic, takes a low from Cuba to the Bahamas, to off the NJ Coast - Too bad it is the Canadian. 

[Edge Weather]

12z Canadian precip maps

[MJO812]

GGEM crushes our area. Nice retrogading low.

[Edge Weather]

You can see the wave I'm talking about forming on the GFS @ 189 hrs. 

 

Yeah, that's your storm on the Canadian.

[CooL]

I like what I see on the gfs a lot around truncation. Full latitude trough with phasing potential with a great nao and pna

[Edge Weather]

GGEM crushes our area. Nice retrogading low.

 

No, that's not retrograding, look at the time stamps.  The path is from Cuba to the Bahamas, to the NJ Coast.  I tried posting them in order but they get messed up anyway for some reason.

[NEG NAO]

No, that's not retrograding, look at the time stamps. The path is from Cuba to the Bahamas, to the NJ Coast. I tried posting them in order but they get messed up anyway for some reason.

that is similar to the track Sandy took up the coast with the huge block in place - lets hope that doesn't happen again since we have strong blocking in place next week - can you imagine the panic that would create ?

[ny747pilot]

12z Canadian would be epic, takes a low from Cuba to the Bahamas, to off the NJ Coast - Too bad it is the Canadian.

that's with the upgrade though which I thought was exceedingly beneficial for it

[ny747pilot]

that is similar to the track Sandy took up the coast with the huge block in place - lets hope that doesn't happen again since we have strong blocking in place next week - can you imagine the panic that would create ?

yes that's the track the Euro sniffed out about a week prior sandy- Minus the northwest turn at the last second of course

[MJO812]

The Ull in the northeast will not help the end of the week storm. We need it further west.

[bluewave]

The euro ensembles look like they want to develop a low to our east near the end of the forecast

period in response to energy rounding the base of the trough. We'll see if this is something that

can creep a little further west  toward Eastern New England in later runs.

 

 

[Edge Weather]

12z Euro ensemble mean

[MJO812]

This is a nice look

 

[PB GFI]

This is a nice look

This is a nice look

The trough axis is just too far east. The surface features are responding over the ocean , not at HSE or AC etc

The 500 mb pattern is pretty to look at on a map but they may b just b drizzle or dry brother

[CooL]

The trough axis is just too far east. The surface features are responding over the ocean , not at HSE or AC etc The 500 mb pattern is pretty to look at on a map but they may b just b drizzle or dry brother

 

On this run yeah..But the trough axis was fine, it was just the ull over the northeast that didn't get out of the way fast enough. If that happens we would have seen a better solution on the surface. All of the pieces are there though

[leemhoc]

if the trough axis could set up 100 miles to the west, we would be in business. with the blocking it would remain on a good path toward the bm. 540 line is south of jacksonvile at hour 192

[Heisy]

PB GFI, of course verbatim it would be east, BUT the setup is there. The 12z EURO actually has a pretty awesome look at 240 hrs too, though it's in fantasy land. I just find it hard to believe we'll escape a +PNA and -NAO with nothing...its def possible, but we just need to catch a break. 

[Heisy]

The great thing about the pattern IMO is that we have the ingredients for a BIG ONE. It's like cooking. You can give someone the recipe, but if they can't cook you get crap. We have the ingredients at least, we're halfway there. I am very excited even though there isn't a big storm showing up on the models except the GGEM 

[leemhoc]

The great thing about the pattern IMO is that we have the ingredients for a BIG ONE. It's like cooking. You can give someone the recipe, but if they can't cook you get crap. We have the ingredients at least, we're halfway there. I am very excited even though there isn't a big storm showing up on the models except the GGEM 

i think by some time the models will show a big one. i think it might be tuesday. what do u think? if it was too happen i am more inclined to say the 3-5 of march not the 1st.

[leemhoc]

however if it was the 3-5, it would be later more like thursday or friday. you cant really hang your head on each model run, we know the setup is there and it is a long way out. so if the euro and gfs show ots for a couple of runs, you cant freak out just like if it was the opposite.