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Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

Dsnowx53

By Dsnowx53,
in New York City Metro

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Giant ULL sitting over the entire east with multiple vorticies rotating around it in the long range with a massive ridge out west. -10 850 line being pulled all the way down to northern Florida. Multiple areas of disturbed weather (snow showers) scattered about. Paid maps on storm vista show the surface freezing line just about clearing the gulf coast at hr 180, making it to northern FL and New Orleans and the 850 freezing line extending almost to West Palm Beach. The ULL is still centered over Washington DC by hr 204. What an amazing run.

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
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Major steps towards a big storm this run. Hr 138 low pressure tracking inside the benchmark, about 100 miles east of ACY. Southern NJ into moderate/heavy snow, up to about Staten Island. Light snow extending into New England.

you mean moderate rain...the bl is absolutely torched. That is rain for everyone even far nw.

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tombo82685

tombo82685

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really? Just be happy that it shows a storm and that it's trending more favorable. 850's are well offshore anyway.

if you are going to dissect a model run you need to overlay the right facts. It is not showing a snowstorm at all. This is a forum of discussing what can happen. You discussing a storm 6 days away and its impacts holds just as much merit as discussing its temps considering this time of year they are a big issue.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

you mean moderate rain...the bl is absolutely torched. That is rain for everyone even far nw.

Surface falls for NYC to about 34 degrees. It starts at 45 but falls steadily. It's probably rain to wet snow. Every level is easily below freezing and thicknesses are 530.

About .50" of precip falls.

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tombo82685

tombo82685

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It's definitely not snow as is depicted, but I'm just paying attention to the setup rather than the BL temps this far out. You absolutely need a stronger more consolidated system to get snow, which the gfs is trying to trend towards. 

The setup is nice with the blocking, we can all agree on that. I just don't like the look of that ULL and where it is at. I would rather it in a 50/50 location than to our west. 

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
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The setup is nice with the blocking, we can all agree on that. I just don't like the look of that ULL and where it is at. I would rather it in a 50/50 location than to our west. 

 

Agreed, the only good thing is that it's occluded rather than a typical primary low, which less of a warming effect. What if the ULL shifts further sw, that should make things more favorable, right?

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The OP Euro broke toward the ensemble last night with the idea of shearing out or delaying  the energy

coming in behind. I guess that's why the euro ensembles have been less amplified than the OP the last 

few days.The OP could be holding too much energy back on this run but we'll see. Any delay in

development will favor eastern sections like we have seen all season so far.

 

 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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Develops too late in the ocean.

No , its in response to the ULL coming east , as per the 12z GFS , Enough moisture printed out there at 120 and 126 .

The issue is the surface , the 850`s look ok . So the GFS  mayb picking up some enhancement and away from the coast

it looks a little better .

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earthlight

earthlight

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The overnight models have taken an ugly turn with the handling of the cutoff low over the Ohio Valley around Days 5-7. With most models now moving it northeastward towards New England over time, this will essentially squash any chance of amplification for the shortwave we were watching around 130-140 hours. Things can change once again, obviously, but should these solutions come to fruition our best chance would then be to hope that cutoff low elongates and moves towards the 50/50 position.

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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Develops too late in the ocean.

 

Don't you mean it develops right over us? The GFS starts to develop a 998mb low right along the Jersey coast at 120 hrs, then deepens it to 994mb over eastern Long Island at 126 hrs, then to 992mbs over eastern CT at 132 hrs, then to 989 as it is elongated and caught into the block from 100 miles east of Cape Cod to eastern Long Island, with moderate precip all the way back to central New York State, unfortunately it develops a bit too far north for us.  What is amazing to me, is how the models showed a low developing right off the NJ Coast 10 days ago, and I guess that is exactly what will happen.  Unfortunately, it will end up being a hit just to the north of us apparently.

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Heisy

Heisy

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Posted

The overnight models have taken an ugly turn with the handling of the cutoff low over the Ohio Valley around Days 5-7. With most models now moving it northeastward towards New England over time, this will essentially squash any chance of amplification for the shortwave we were watching around 130-140 hours. Things can change once again, obviously, but should these solutions come to fruition our best chance would then be to hope that cutoff low elongates and moves towards the 50/50 position.

 

Tom I agree, I actually think this one is starting to look bleak, HOWEVER...Last night and now 12z today the models are picking up on a wave that follows this storm as it lifts to the Northeast...This one could have room to amplify especially since the block is in place now. 

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