Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[Dsnowx53]

Reminds me of February 2010 system. That was modeled to crush Boston at this range

 

 

The pattern matches February 26, 2010 in a lot of ways, just shifted a tad northeast. 

[bluewave]

You have to wonder if the weak MJO pulse into phase 6 next week could make this come further west

by imparting just enough of a SE Ridge offshore for this to turn the corner sooner?

 

 

[Zir0b]

Reminds me of February 2010 system. That was modeled to crush Boston at this range

Which one? There will multiple storms in 2/2010 

[IsentropicLift]

Thanks moderators for clearing up some of the garbage posts in the last five minutes, it's greatly appreciated.

 

You would like to see the coastal retrograde more to keep the door open for another threat down the road. At hr 198 there is more energy diving down he backside of the trough but the entire axis by this point is well east and it's going to be OTS.

[Zir0b]

The pattern matches February 26, 2010 in a lot of ways, just shifted a tad northeast. 

actually I think February 16, 2010 is a good analog as well

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/16-Feb-10-500MillibarMaps.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0216.php

[Heisy]

Really need, at least IMO, the two waves to be more apart so that the 2nd one has room to amplify. The EURO shows a pivot between the two waves it's pretty fun to watch. 

[Allsnow]

Which one? There will multiple storms in 2/2010

The one that retrograded from the east

[IsentropicLift]

The Canadian is very amplified with the system on the 26th. Big rain storm for us, big snows for northern New England. Then it's way east with the early March threat.

 

[IsentropicLift]

At day 10 on the Euro, the 850 freezing line makes it south of Orlando  and the -10 850 line clears the panhandle.

 

[bluewave]

Improvement from yesterday.

 

 

[Heisy]

Bluewave, with the block forming I think it will continually to trend better for us. I dont see this one escaping that easy. 

[Heisy]

12z JMA setting up a dousy: Low forming off SC coastline...

 

Much better spot than EURO for us....I'd love to see what it does with this...

 

 

120 hrs:

 

144 hrs:

 

[bluewave]

Bluewave, with the block forming I think it will continually to trend better for us. I dont see this one escaping that easy. 

 

It wouldn't take very much more initial ridging off the SE Coast next week for the surface low to be further SW.

 

[Heisy]

JMA would probably end up showing a colossal hit...but it's the JMA At least the models are starting to consolidate on threats...Before today it was just jumbled pieces of energy all over the place. 

[Zir0b]

12z JMA setting up a dousy: Low forming off SC coastline...

 

Much better spot than EURO for us....I'd love to see what it does with this...

I think it's setting up a solution that would make many people happy.

But-- it's the JMA

[ace0927]

The pattern matches February 26, 2010 in a lot of ways, just shifted a tad northeast. 

 

 

 

Reminds me of February 2010 system. That was modeled to crush Boston at this range

 

 

that was a great month of weather around these parts

[ag3]

I think it's setting up a solution that would make many people happy.

But-- it's the JMA

 

 

It's a bit OTS but still brushes the area with close to 1" of precip. More east.

[Snow_Miser]

I agree with some other posters that have commented that Feb 2010 is a good analog to use with the retrograding aspect of the system.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0226.php

[bluewave]

I agree with some other posters that have commented that Feb 2010 is a good analog to use with the retrograding aspect of the system.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0226.php

 

That one is right up there.

 

[earthlight]

That one is right up there.

 

610analog.off.gif

 

That's an all star team of analogs we have working for us at the moment, my goodness.

[forkyfork]

we need the system on wednesday to trend weaker or move east for us to have a better chance

feb 2010 had an initial wave before the main event on the 25th. it was weak enough to allow the system behind it to amplify

[earthlight]

You have to wonder if the weak MJO pulse into phase 6 next week could make this come further west

by imparting just enough of a SE Ridge offshore for this to turn the corner sooner?

 

The Euro has the upper level low centered just east of Chicago at 500mb at 114 hours. I think the positioning around that time frame and moving forward from there will be critical. It shifts to near Detroit by 132 and the very robust southern stream vort is near the MS River. So it literally hooks around towards New England and then phases into a powerful 500mb low.

[NaoPos]

JMA would probably end up showing a colossal hit...but it's the JMA At least the models are starting to consolidate on threats...Before today it was just jumbled pieces of energy all over the place.

The 168hr frame is a 968ish bomb east of the BM.

[bluewave]

That's an all star team of analogs we have working for us at the moment, my goodness.

 

Yeah, it sure is. One of the biggest hits for that composite that I can remember  was when I believe it had a famous New England tornado

analog date over a week ahead the Springfield, Mass tornado in June 2011.

[snywx]

that was a great month of weather around these parts

 

54" for the month here while areas just to east in Monroe/Harriman had 60" for the month

[earthlight]

Yeah, it sure is. One of the biggest hits for that composite that I can remember  was when I believe it had a famous New England tornado

analog date over a week ahead the Springfield, Mass tornado in June 2011.

 

You're starting to get me excited for severe weather season

 

Since its technically long range discussion (pushing it, I know) I was talking to forky earlier today about how it's been a while since we've seen a well organized, widespread severe weather event in our area with one of the "classic" squall lines. I can remember as a kid, watching The Weather Channel or Metro Weather radar on TV and seeing the squall lines in the summer come crashing through all the way from PA/NY. We had a quite a run in the early 2000's and it's been pretty putrid since then in comparison.

 

Anyway -- the analogs can be hit or miss despite often being a great tool. We saw them printing out Dec 26 2010 several times earlier this year in the top 5 analogs inside 6-8 days and the results obviously weren't there. So using them carefully, and correctly, is equally as important.

[Heisy]

we need the system on wednesday to trend weaker or move east for us to have a better chance

feb 2010 had an initial wave before the main event on the 25th. it was weak enough to allow the system behind it to amplify

 

+1, plus it wouldn't help if the shortwave in the south is stronger. 

[green tube]

The one that retrograded from the east

 

 

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/riggi/100225_26_kdix.gif

[snywx]

we need the system on wednesday to trend weaker or move east for us to have a better chance

feb 2010 had an initial wave before the main event on the 25th. it was weak enough to allow the system behind it to amplify

And that initial wave was still a decent hit for the NW burbs..

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm02242010.html

[Eduardo]

That's an all star team of analogs we have working for us at the moment, my goodness.

 

Was about to say the same thing, earthlight.  I vividly recall watching the 2/26/10 storm retrograde and would happily welcome an encore.  I realize it's just one run for an event that is a week away, but am I dreaming?  Will be in NYC during that period as well.