Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[Allsnow]

Beautiful ridge out west next weekend, great trends today by gfs

[Dsnowx53]

That block really does look like the one we had during Sandy. Incredible.

[Allsnow]

Congrats central fl on your snowfall next weekend. Gfs truncation

[IsentropicLift]

Day 10 and beyond the ridge reloads in the west as the overall pattern breaks down and becomes more progressive.

[SnoSki14]

Day 10 and beyond the ridge reloads in the west as the overall pattern breaks down and becomes more progressive.

 

The gfs is probably breaking down the pattern too quickly beyond Day 10 which is common for the model. I could see the blocking pattern last through at least mid March. 

[IsentropicLift]

The gfs is probably breaking down the pattern too quickly beyond Day 10 which is common for the model. I could see the blocking pattern last through at least mid March. 

It's interesting to watch. The block re-establishes itself well to our north and east late in the run as the threat around March 3-5 wraps up and retrogrades back towards Canada. If one of those vorts in the 8-14 range can amplify it would certainly help to keep the blocking in place. It's going to be mid-March so at some point, even with good blocking in place, the cold air source is going to be lacking.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The gfs is probably breaking down the pattern too quickly beyond Day 10 which is common for the model. I could see the blocking pattern last through at least mid March. 

At face value, the pattern we're evolving into looks good, except that we have an extremely small window of time for something to happen. By 288 hours on the GFS, "we're in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and nobody on, Mariano has an 0-2 count on Gonzalez and---it is high, it is far, it is CAUGHT!...the Yankees WIN!, game over". Stick a fork in it!

WX/PT

[bullfr2121]

00z was over Buffalo 12z is just north of UP. It's a start, the look next weekend is really nice. It would be pure bad luck if we don't get something out of this

 

I wouldn't call it bad luck if we don't get anything out of this next weekend...i would call it March in the Metro area...has to be absolutely perfect to get anything...i'm guessing 40s and rain...

 

yes, we have had big storms in March...but those are rare and this winter has been bust after bust...so i expect the trend to continue

[SnoSki14]

At face value, the pattern we're evolving into looks good, except that we have an extremely small window of time for something to happen. By 288 hours on the GFS, "we're in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and nobody on, Mariano has an 0-2 count on Gonzalez and---it is high, it is far, it is CAUGHT!...the Yankees WIN!, game over". Stick a fork in it!

WX/PT

 

Surprisingly the gfs beyond 300 hrs shows another cold shot coming as we head toward mid March, I think the western ridge could be a long term factor which means we still might have chance even as we get further into March. 

 

I agree about the whole time running out bit though, the pattern still might be stormy beyond say March 8-10 but it's far more likely to be wet than white. These next 10-14 days will be our last shot at some snow before it's too late so it's definitely now or never, but if you like an active, non typical MORCH pattern, then you should be happy. I don't see March torching this year. 

 

It's unfortunate we couldn't get this blocking pattern to kick in a week or two ago where we have colder temps and are more favorable climo wise but it's still not too late in the game.

[MJO812]

I wouldn't call it bad luck if we don't get anything out of this next weekend...i would call it March in the Metro area...has to be absolutely perfect to get anything...i'm guessing 40s and rain...

 

yes, we have had big storms in March...but those are rare and this winter has been bust after bust...so i expect the trend to continue

 

Not if the blocking takes shape with the massive ridging in the east. The first week of March holds a lot of potential.

[IsentropicLift]

At face value, the pattern we're evolving into looks good, except that we have an extremely small window of time for something to happen. By 288 hours on the GFS, "we're in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and nobody on, Mariano has an 0-2 count on Gonzalez and---it is high, it is far, it is CAUGHT!...the Yankees WIN!, game over". Stick a fork in it!

WX/PT

I'm sure March and April will be full of noreasters dumping 2-4" of rain a clip

 

We really could have used blocking like this a few weeks ago. That Feb 8 storm could have been more of a blockbuster.

[IsentropicLift]

Not if the blocking takes shape with the massive ridging in the east. The first week of March holds a lot of potential.

What happens with our early March threat is going to have tons of downstream effect on what kind of pattern we see in the first two weeks of March. A big storm would help to re-energize things and keep the pattern less progressive. In the end, Spring is coming, and it won't be denied.

[MJO812]

What happens with our early March threat is going to have tons of downstream effect on what kind of pattern we see in the first two weeks of March. A big storm would help to re-energize things and keep the pattern less progressive. In the end, Spring is coming, and it won't be denied.

 

IA warmer pattern will most likely develop once the blocking breaks down.

[IsentropicLift]

The GFS ensemble mean looks nothing like the GFS op for the long range. The pattern is very progressive with the ULL located east of Maine at hr 168. It's about 1000 miles to the east of where the op has it at the same hour.

[bluewave]

The Euro weeklies are in no rush to start spring here. Pretty much as opposite as you can get to last March.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/significant-front-for-southwest-bc/6603460

 

It looks like it's banking that forecast on plenty of blocking with an incoherent MJO signal.

 

 

 

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

Well the GFS ensemble mean shows exactly what a lot of posters have feared, that the ULL sets up too far east and we stay high and dry through mid-month. That's certainly discouraging after the op looked promising.

[Heisy]

Yanksfan, don't be too discouraged...

 

This is a very volatile pattern. With the block that is going to form day 7 or so it won't take much for a storm to spawn. I don't think it will be a storm that is progged this far out. EVERY model is different because any small change in this pattern could result in totally different solutions. It'd be nice to see a big storm start to show up on the models, but I think we need to wait until Monday to get a much better feel on the wave lengths and the opportunities. For now, it's just a positive to see a good pattern heading into March. I'd rather see a pattern with potential heading into March than a torch. 

[SR Airglow]

I take it that since there was no comments on the EURO it was lacking in storms/snow?

-skisheep

[MJO812]

Euro developing a low at 150 along the coast

[Heisy]

If we can just get more and more separation between the two waves the day 7 storm could be the real deal. 

[Heisy]

EURO about to go ape &^%% on NE @ 168 hrs

 

Absolute crush job for Boston, like I said if the two waves are more separated then this low will bomb sooner, but right now they're too close together and you get a late NE phase job....Jeez crush job for them. 

 

976mb just east of Cape Cod....It shows a norlun trough feature before the low bombs around Philly but the surface is too warm...

[MJO812]

SNE northward is going to get hit hard at 168. The low is starting to retrogade.

[MJO812]

Blizzard for SNE northward at 168 hours.

[IsentropicLift]

We get a bit of a norlun trough hrs 156-162. New England getting crushed again this run. Hr 174 sub 984 low just east of Cape Cod, wrap around extending back towards the lower hudson valley.

[ace0927]

We get a bit of a norlun trough hrs 156-162. New England getting crushed again this run. Hr 174 sub 984 low just east of Cape Cod, wrap around extending back towards the lower hudson valley.

 

 

We get a bit of a norlun trough hrs 156-162. New England getting crushed again this run. Hr 174 sub 984 low just east of Cape Cod, wrap around extending back towards the lower hudson valley.

odds of our area getting a norlun...less than 1%

[MJO812]

SNE northward still getting hammered at 180. This is an epic pattern coming up. GFS is way different. Just a slightly earlier phase and we would be golden.

[Heisy]

Snow88 I agree, this is a great sign that the EURO for 2 runs in a row is showing a storm developing from the wave behind the 27th storm. We just need more digging and more separation and this will be a douzy...Who cares what it shows specifically, the idea of a big EC low is now in the cards. 

[MJO812]

odds of our area getting a norlun...less than 1%

 

Still way out there to give up on the storm for our area. Just a little further south with the big storm and our area would be crushed.

[Heisy]

I dont think the GFS is "way" different. The idea is there is just doesnt come to fruition, long way to go. 

[Allsnow]

Reminds me of February 2010 system. That was modeled to crush Boston at this range