Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[MJO812]

That is not saying much though. The averages are warming. Phl avg high march 1st is in the mid to upper 40s and I'm sure nyc is not far behind. What that is showing is pretty much near normal temperatures to slightly below which would be highs in the low 40s. The biggest contrast is southeast because there averages are a heck of a lot higher. When you have a convoluted setup like this the whole east coast almost has the same airmass which gets skewed colder the further south you go.

 

This will be a shock to people in the south, especially Florida.

[jjvesnow]

That is not saying much though. The averages are warming. Phl avg high march 1st is in the mid to upper 40s and I'm sure nyc is not far behind. What that is showing is pretty much near normal temperatures to slightly below which would be highs in the low 40s. The biggest contrast is southeast because there averages are a heck of a lot higher. When you have a convoluted setup like this the whole east coast almost has the same airmass which gets skewed colder the further south you go.

 

Looks like a cold spring break season in Florida.   Probably 60's for highs.  Not really beach weather.

[earthlight]

That is not saying much though. The averages are warming. Phl avg high march 1st is in the mid to upper 40s and I'm sure nyc is not far behind. What that is showing is pretty much near normal temperatures to slightly below which would be highs in the low 40s. The biggest contrast is southeast because there averages are a heck of a lot higher. When you have a convoluted setup like this the whole east coast almost has the same airmass which gets skewed colder the further south you go.

Nice post, this is a pretty big misconception especially when people are looking at the maps and see these huge negative anomalies over the southeast.

Also, regarding models like the NAEFS and CFSv2...I noticed that the CFS had it's best performance for February within the 3-4 days before the month began. Every month is different obviously..but ill be interested in what the CFS has to say for March in a few days given its very accurate February forecast

[NEG NAO]

6Z GFS shows basically 2 rain events for immediate NYC metro and then a couple rounds of snow showers in the days after that as the vortex and block remains in place

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

[bluewave]

Nice post, this is a pretty big misconception especially when people are looking at the maps and see these huge negative anomalies over the southeast.

Also, regarding models like the NAEFS and CFSv2...I noticed that the CFS had it's best performance for February within the 3-4 days before the month began. Every month is different obviously..but ill be interested in what the CFS has to say for March in a few days given its very accurate February forecast

 

January was the first monthly forecast that it didn't do well on in some time. But the interesting thing was despite it being

too cold, we got one of the coldest winter weeks in several years.

[NEG NAO]

January was the first monthly forecast that it didn't do well on in some time. But the interesting thing was despite it being

too cold, we got one of the coldest winter weeks in several years.

That week looks like it has a good chance of being 1 of 2 highlights of this winter the other being the snowstorm and Blizzard for some portions of the area 2/8 - 2/9 - question now will there be a 3rd highlight - as of now there is tons of potential from the 28th through the first 5 or 10 days of March but nothing much is showing up on modeling but the AO - NAO - PNA are all very favorable and working together - the MJO is probably in phase 5 right now  - question is is that hurting our chances for a SECS - MECS or better ?

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[earthlight]

The GEFS have remained steady with the blocking signal and actually trended a tick stronger and farther west on the 06z run centered around March 1st..which is an encouraging sign. This is a very profound signal for above normal heights in Canada (the exact magnitude of the block is yet to be determined) and below normal 500mb heights in the Eastern US. That being said...the elongation and amplitude of the trough over the East will have major implications as to whether its a cold and dry pattern with storms forming offshore and hooking back towards Nova Scotia and Maine, or one that favors multiple east coast storm systems. For that, we'll have to wait and see as we move forward in the next 5-7 days or so. Currently, things look displaced a little too far east which has been a trend this season.

 

[nyblizz44]

These badly misplaced fastballs hooking east have been kioss of death to this NYC snowlover ( even in the blizzard where I got 9 inches in queens and friends 90 minutes east got 27). so my question to you is: if every storm has entirely different dynamics due to eveolving atmospheric conditions why is it a repetitive hook to the east with CT. Bos and ISP reaping the benefits?

 

 

The GEFS have remained steady with the blocking signal and actually trended a tick stronger and farther west on the 06z run centered around March 1st..which is an encouraging sign. This is a very profound signal for above normal heights in Canada (the exact magnitude of the block is yet to be determined) and below normal 500mb heights in the Eastern US. That being said...the elongation and amplitude of the trough over the East will have major implications as to whether its a cold and dry pattern with storms forming offshore and hooking back towards Nova Scotia and Maine, or one that favors multiple east coast storm systems. For that, we'll have to wait and see as we move forward in the next 5-7 days or so. Currently, things look displaced a little too far east which has been a trend this season.

 

[Allsnow]

Gfs going to slide that primary under Chicago like the euro. Might not mean much for us, but it def trend towards euro

[IsentropicLift]

For the 26th threat, the GFS looks like the transfer begins with the low near Kansas City. There are signs of a surface low forming in the northern gulf at hour 87.

[PB GFI]

nice CAD signal out at 96 , compared to the 6z at 102

Should have let run through . forget above

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 105, closed at 500mb over VA. Rain for the area. The surface freezing line is all the way up towards central New England.

[MJO812]

GFS is still coming in different than the Euro for the storm next week.

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 108, it opens back up. The primary is located over southern Michigan. New low taking shape over Texas. This energy is taking more of a classic miller A track from CO down towards the southern plains and the gulf region. That pig of a cut off low is sitting north of Lake Erie in Canada.

[Allsnow]

It's all rain. I agree with the rest of the higher educational minds here that this is a rain event. Hopefully we can get that ull further west, to set up end of next week

[MJO812]

The ull on the GFS is further west on this run.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 144, surface low is developing over the Outer Banks. No precip at all associated with the coastal. By hour 150 whatever was forming is sliding off to the east. Looks like it wanted to do something big but everything gets kicked east at the last minute.

[MJO812]

Hr 144, surface low is developing over the Outer Banks.

 

That low doesn't look like anything. There are so many vorts in this pattern. With the ull further west on this run, there should be room for any of the vorts to amplify.

[Allsnow]

The vort coming out next Friday will be the one to watch this run. Screams potential with the ull retreating nw and active stj

[MJO812]

The vort coming out next Friday will be the one to watch this run. Screams potential with the ull retreating nw and active stj

 

Agree, even if the GFS doesn't show anything right now.

[NEG NAO]

Gfs going to slide that primary under Chicago like the euro. Might not mean much for us, but it def trend towards euro

you are right it means exactly nothing for us as once again the ULL passes very close to Chicago then there is redevelopment - inland this time and that travels up the coast east of the Apps and we get a heavy rainstorm then that low hits the block and begins to retrograde northwest - not good

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06114.gif

[SnoSki14]

I think the 26th storm has no shot now and that's probably a good thing because normally the storm would be more progressive and much further east but still bad. Now it's getting pulled further and further west which means the block is stronger, it's clearly having major influence on the overall pattern and it could really set us up early March. 

 

Remember we need the blocking and pattern to shift further west. 

[Zir0b]

Does not look good, that ULL is just going to shear and/or suppress any shortwave that tries to make it around the trough.    

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The vort coming out next Friday will be the one to watch this run. Screams potential with the ull retreating nw and active stj

I don't see that ull retreating much yet. As long as it or any version of it is over the Great Lakes, it's unlikely we get much. And it is just as likely that once that ull retreats, the trough exits to the right and the western ridge builds e-ward.

WX/PT

[Allsnow]

Next weekend the gfs has a beautiful look with the ull further nw and higher hgt out west. This is 177 hr+ out

[IsentropicLift]

The ridge out west remains very nice in the extended period. I would agree that any of those vorts would have potential to amplify and turn into something big. The vort that comes in around the end of next week really needs to be watched. 

[Dsnowx53]

I really like the overall look, but the ULL appears too elongated to me.

[MJO812]

Next weekend the gfs has a beautiful look with the ull further nw and higher hgt out west. This is 177 hr+ out

 

The ridge is really nice on the GFS. It might not do it this run but this run is a big improvement over the previous runs.

[Allsnow]

I don't see that ull retreating much yet. As long as it or any version of it is over the Great Lakes, it's unlikely we get much. And it is just as likely that once that ull retreats, the trough exits to the right and the western ridge builds e-ward.

WX/PT

00z was over Buffalo 12z is just north of UP. It's a start, the look next weekend is really nice. It would be pure bad luck if we don't get something out of this

[SnoSki14]

There's going to have to be patience and a lot of faith in the upcoming pattern but history shows when you have such an intense blocking regime in place that something will happen. The models will play many games for days until they figure this out so I'm surprised the gfs is showing this right now.