Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[Heisy]

Looking at all the models there are 3 distinct shortwaves to keep an eye on. 

 

@ 126 GGEM hours you can see all 3 here. While specifics are different on each model you can see all 3 waves on each model. 

 

 

 

 

The EURO shows #1 farther east than any model, it then tries to create a second storm @ around Day 9-10 with wave #2, it crushes wave #3.

 

The GGEM phases #1 & #2, lifts the ULL into 50/50 position, it then keeps #3 very strong and turns it into a potential HECS (beautiful model run)

 

The GFS is pretty much like the EURO.

 

Who knows what will happen just laying it out there. 

[tombo82685]

It's white for the City on West. Long Island has some precipitation type problems. Details are pretty fruitless at this stage but it's interesting to see nonetheless.

This should be noted. What the euro shows would be some snow but it would accum to probably nothing. .05-.1 over 6 hrs will not get it done in late february.

[Heisy]

The GGEM ensemble mean matches up well with its OP run...Straight porn. 

 

[Isotherm]

I couldn't care less what models have in terms of details for Mar 1-2. So the storm is progged offshore, ok, fine. We've got a monster PNA ridge, impressive west based -NAO blocking, and a full latitude trough in the East. The pattern is about as favorable as one can get for early March to ignite a coastal low on the East Coast. In fact I hope models don't paint a snowstorm for us until we approach the time frame, within 6 days or so. We're still out at D8 and that's too far to be concerned with storm track or phasing intricacies.         

[bluewave]

I couldn't care less what models have in terms of details for Mar 1-2. So the storm is progged offshore, ok, fine. We've got a monster PNA ridge, impressive west based -NAO blocking, and a full latitude trough in the East. The pattern is about as favorable as one can get for early March to ignite a coastal low on the East Coast. In fact I hope models don't paint a snowstorm for us until we approach the time frame, within 6 days or so. We're still out at D8 and that's too far to be concerned with storm track or phasing intricacies.         

 

It's always fun to the watch the models jump around and play lost and found in retrograding blocking situations here.

The energy rounding the base of the closed low should amp up the complexity level in the forecast.

[Isotherm]

It's always fun to the watch the models jump around and play lost and found in retrograding blocking situations here.

The energy rounding the base of the closed low should amp up the complexity level in the forecast.

 

 

Yeah agreed. This is the most favorable pattern we've had since "Sandy", in fact H5 looks fairly similar. Given the monster block to our northeast, any coastal storm is going to have a difficult time moving offshore, and it'll inevitably be pulled NW into Northern New England. Question is when can that s/w energy spin up a sfc low - does it occur on the SE US coast, mid atlantic coast, or slightly too far east for our longitude to cash in. As you mentioned in an earlier post, I'd agree that New England has the best shot at big snows here, which tends to fit the theme of this winter thus far. Our area and PHL as well are looking fairly good though the forecast is of less confidence. Either way, the first week of March might hold a couple of different opportunities for short waves to bomb out.

[CooL]

This should be noted. What the euro shows would be some snow but it would accum to probably nothing. .05-.1 over 6 hrs will not get it done in late february.

I think he's talking about the euro control run

[tombo82685]

I think he's talking about the euro control run

Ahh ok never really saw that model. Regardless. You are going to need decent precip rates if you are going to get accum during the day. Night time is obviously different.

[CooL]

Ahh ok never really saw that model. Regardless. You are going to need decent precip rates if you are going to get accum during the day. Night time is obviously different.

Yeah. First Lets hope we can get a good coastal in the early march period like what the ggem has lol. I think temps will be fine for the first week of march as long as we have a good coastal storm. But that's up in the air right now.

[bluewave]

Yeah agreed. This is the most favorable pattern we've had since "Sandy", in fact H5 looks fairly similar. Given the monster block to our northeast, any coastal storm is going to have a difficult time moving offshore, and it'll inevitably be pulled NW into Northern New England. Question is when can that s/w energy spin up a sfc low - does it occur on the SE US coast, mid atlantic coast, or slightly too far east for our longitude to cash in. As you mentioned in an earlier post, I'd agree that New England has the best shot at big snows here, which tends to fit the theme of this winter thus far. Our area and PHL as well are looking fairly good though the forecast is of less confidence. Either way, the first week of March might hold a couple of different opportunities for short waves to bomb out.

 

Yeah, an earlier and more westerly phase would result in something like 2-26-10 and a little too far

east would be like March 2001. Maybe a strong  enough block would allow us to buck the seasonal

trend so far and get a further west solution. In any event, it looks like a very stormy pattern for portions

of the East Coast and we have had no shortage of wild solutions over the last few years.

 

 

[ag3]

Ahh ok never really saw that model. Regardless. You are going to need decent precip rates if you are going to get accum during the day. Night time is obviously different.

Are you talking about the day 5-6 threat on the euro?

If yes, the euro drops .95" in only 6 hours from 6z to 12z on the 27th. And .48" for the 6 hours before that.

[Chris L]

Yeah. First Lets hope we can get a good coastal in the early march period like what the ggem has lol. I think temps will be fine for the first week of march as long as we have a good coastal storm. But that's up in the air right now.

 

 

GGEM is absolute Kocin potential.

[tombo82685]

Are you talking about the day 5-6 threat on the euro? If yes, the euro drops .95" in only 6 hours from 6z to 12z on the 27th. And .48" for the 6 hours before that.

No, the threat from day 6 on. The day 5-6 storm is all rain, the bl is torched. When it just sits and spins after hr 156 then it becomes snow but the precip is to lgt.

[Zir0b]

Not that it means much, but the 18z DGEX gives us snow hours 162-174 with a coastal low that stalls near CC and buries SNE

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html

[Snow_Miser]

This should be noted. What the euro shows would be some snow but it would accum to probably nothing. .05-.1 over 6 hrs will not get it done in late february.

 

The EPS run shows 0.5-0.75 inches of liquid in six hours. That would most likely accumulate if the EPS run played out exactly.

[Snow_Miser]

It seems like there's three threats currently being depicted on models. There's one that looks to come during mid week. This system involves a dying primary in the Midwest with a late spawning coastal system. The primary system in the Midwest looks to pump up warmer air into the East so the BL may definitely be an issue. How far east this system goes is still pretty uncertain, and the 18z GFS showed a very borderline event. As 1234abc mentioned, the soundings and the Text Output are very close for snow in the NW portion of the area, so this should definitely be watched for the NW Burbs.

 

As the days progress further, it seems like there is another storm system at around the day 7 timeframe. The 18z GEFS highlight the uncertainty associated with this system, and there is still quite a bit of spread with the individual members. We can see this at hour 168 with regard to the spread amongst the members.

 

 

Beyond that, it seems like there is another potential storm at around the day 10 timeframe. The 12z ECMWF ENS highlight this pretty nicely with a 1003 mb low around the Benchmark. This is a pretty large signal for a mean so far out. The 12z GGEM also showed major potential for this third system as well, with a developing coastal system by the SE Coast. While there will be changes as we go forward, this period looks very active, with three possible chances over the next 10 days or so. While it is likely that not all of these threats will eventually deliver, it is unlikely that none of them will deliver. We shall see. The pattern going forward looks very favorable, with a west based -NAO and a raging +PNA.

[SnoSki14]

The pattern looks so incredibly favorable, it'll be shocking if we don't get anything. The 26th threat is very real too and the pattern gets even better beyond that.

[earthlight]

I think our tentative best chance for a big storm with KU potential could come around March 2-4th. Almost every medium range OP model and ensemble takes the big ULL and elongates it over Southeast Canada at that time, while a big shortwave races southeast through the Plains with room for amplification and plenty of cold air. These solutions will change wildly...but given the persistent blocking signal it is safe to assume that the ULL will get trapped underneath it at some point in SE Canada and elongate. And with the active flow of energy continuing from the Pac NW, it'll be a ticking time bomb should that pattern come to fruition.

[jm1220]

I think our tentative best chance for a big storm with KU potential could come around March 2-4th. Almost every medium range OP model and ensemble takes the big ULL and elongates it over Southeast Canada at that time, while a big shortwave races southeast through the Plains with room for amplification and plenty of cold air. These solutions will change wildly...but given the persistent blocking signal it is safe to assume that the ULL will get trapped underneath it at some point in SE Canada and elongate. And with the active flow of energy continuing from the Pac NW, it'll be a ticking time bomb should that pattern come to fruition.

Almost in time for an epic 12th anniversary!!

[Kaner587]

Almost in time for an epic 12th anniversary!!

Except this time it works out??? Lol

[BxEngine]

Almost in time for an epic 12th anniversary!!

You should be banned for that.

[jm1220]

You should be banned for that.

 

I remember watching that radar all the night of the storm thinking "this has to back in from the east at SOME point, right"? all the way to a glorious 3-4" of slop.

 

Anyway, end of distraction

[Zir0b]

NAM looks mildly interesting @ 84 hrs 

[Heisy]

NAM looks mildly interesting @ 84 hrs 

 

It actually looks 'worse' than previous runs imo, the shortwave is headed towards Chicago. 

[SnoSki14]

I like that the gfs went further south and weaker with the primary although the solution ends up further west. Hopefully it weakens the primary more and shifts it further south. At this point I'd say we have a 20% of seeing snow for the 26th storm. 

[leemhoc]

On gfs march 1st storm ots and march 4-5 threat gone

[IsentropicLift]

No posts about the 00z Euro?

 

The coastal gets close enough in the March 1-2nd time frame to send some light snow our way.

[bluewave]

The details of the storm on the 26th and the energy diving down behind will be an important 

part of this forecast for the early March storm potential. The amount of blocking and specific

location will also help determine if this is further west or a little too far east for NYC.Still a

tricky forecast at this point since the storm in question will be the third storm in the current

forecast period.

 

[MJO812]

Here is the 0z NAEFS

[tombo82685]

Here is the 0z NAEFS

That is not saying much though. The averages are warming. Phl avg high march 1st is in the mid to upper 40s and I'm sure nyc is not far behind. What that is showing is pretty much near normal temperatures to slightly below which would be highs in the low 40s. The biggest contrast is southeast because there averages are a heck of a lot higher. When you have a convoluted setup like this the whole east coast almost has the same airmass which gets skewed colder the further south you go.