Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[bluewave]

Still plenty of spread between the Euro and the 12z ensembles beginning from 120 and stronger beyond that.

The fuzzy part is how far south the low digs 120-144 and the amount of energy diving down the back side

of the trough. 

 

[Chris L]

It is uncommon for the PHL region to get screwed while at the same time the NYC area cashes in. The upcoming pattern favors New England and our climo is more comparable with Philly than New England 

 

 

Unless, of course, Miller A bomb... Some of our greatest blizzards, PHL does well too, or even beats NYC (Blizz of '96 and Dec '09 and Feb '10).

[Weathergun]

The blocking is is getting stronger and further west on the models. Such as we what saw before Sandy. I think there less chance of everything wind up too far east in the long term:

 

0z:

 

12z

[Absolute Humidity]

That's a pretty false statement. Don't forget that the Philly forum also covers all of southern NJ and Delaware. Those areas often rain while we snow. The reason we split into two forums was because things were so different. When I first joined Philly and NYC were together. I did like it better that way as us folks in the western burbs didn't feel like such outsiders.

"I did like it better that way as us folks in the western burbs didn't feel like such outsiders."  

 

Me too, ever since the spit, Central Jersey is like a homeless stepchild and lost in the two regions. And I also agree Philly Climo differs from NYC, can't really compare the two. Examples: Feb 5 2010, Philly - 27" NYC - 0".    Feb 8-9 2013, Philly - 1.5"  NYC - 9" to 18".    

[ace0927]

It is uncommon for the PHL region to get screwed while at the same time the NYC area cashes in. The upcoming pattern favors New England and our climo is more comparable with Philly than New England 

 

 

It is uncommon for the PHL region to get screwed while at the same time the NYC area cashes in. The upcoming pattern favors New England and our climo is more comparable with Philly than New England 

so untrue...

 

There are a lot of cases...I can start with December 1995, December 2003, feb 1969...and im sure there are at least 5-10 more

 

I would also throw out the jan 2011 storms...

[earthlight]

The long range pattern, on the Euro specifically, is very encouraging and would likely lead to a prolonged period of wintry weather especially north of New York City but likely including areas from Philadelphia northward. That being said, I remain weary given the poor MJO forecasts from medium range modeling this year as well as the tendency for blocking to trend weaker and less impressive as one moves forward in time towards the blocking event. Four or five times this year, we have seen medium range guidance, the GEFS specifically, show well established blocks in Central/Eastern Canada, only to see them turn into ridge extensions and above normal height anomalies by the time we are inside 84 hours. Despite trending much stronger with the negative height anomalies in relation to the mid level trough at 180 hours, the GEFS trended weaker with the blocking at that same time. So it's something to keep in mind as we move forward.

 

All of that on the table, I think the above paragraph is my main and only concern. Almost every other piece of medium range guidance looks to be setting up ideally for a wintry pattern with the potential for snow as we head into the end of February into March. I doubt things will work out perfectly ... but I also hope nobody is expecting Spring any time soon.

[Zir0b]

so untrue...

 

There are a lot of cases...I can start with December 1995, December 2003, feb 1969...and im sure there are at least 5-10 more

I said it's uncommon...not that it NEVER happens. And PHL did decently in December 2003 

[MJO812]

Euro

[Edge Weather]

The long range pattern, on the Euro specifically, is very encouraging and would likely lead to a prolonged period of wintry weather especially north of New York City but likely including areas from Philadelphia northward. That being said, I remain weary given the poor MJO forecasts from medium range modeling this year as well as the tendency for blocking to trend weaker and less impressive as one moves forward in time towards the blocking event. Four or five times this year, we have seen medium range guidance, the GEFS specifically, show well established blocks in Central/Eastern Canada, only to see them turn into ridge extensions and above normal height anomalies by the time we are inside 84 hours. Despite trending much stronger with the negative height anomalies in relation to the mid level trough at 180 hours, the GEFS trended weaker with the blocking at that same time. So it's something to keep in mind as we move forward.

 

All of that on the table, I think the above paragraph is my main and only concern. Almost every other piece of medium range guidance looks to be setting up ideally for a wintry pattern with the potential for snow as we head into the end of February into March. I doubt things will work out perfectly ... but I also hope nobody is expecting Spring any time soon.

 

Great post.  Thank you.  Now, question, you mention the GFS trending weaker with blocking when we get closer.  How about the ECMWF? 

[Edge Weather]

240 Hr EC ensemble mean. Holy Cow!  Look at this!

[IsentropicLift]

I said it's uncommon...not that it NEVER happens. And PHL did decently in December 2003 

There are exceptions to everything, but on average, NYC averages higher snowfall than Philly. Without looking at the numbers I don't want to speculate but I'm sure the difference is significant.

[Zir0b]

There are exceptions to everything, but on average, NYC averages higher snowfall than Philly. Without looking at the numbers I don't want to speculate but I'm sure the difference is significant.

NYC does average more than PHL but not by much... all I'm saying is NYC's climo is more comparable with the PHL region than SNE. The difference between NYC's and Boston's average snowfall is way more significant than the difference between PHL-NYC

[bluewave]

so untrue...

 

There are a lot of cases...I can start with December 1995, December 2003, feb 1969...and im sure there are at least 5-10 more

 

I would also throw out the jan 2011 storms...

 

Climo also works against Philly getting as much snow as NYC. The important point is that this season Philly has been doing

worse than NYC and points NE due to the late developers in a Nina-like pattern.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/snowfall.html

[ace0927]

I said it's uncommon...not that it NEVER happens. And PHL did decently in December 2003 

 

 

I said it's uncommon...not that it NEVER happens. And PHL did decently in December 2003 

I was in Philly for that storm...they had like 2" and a lot of sleet - dont care what that map says...if you look at the map of the right you see the blue area...

 

we had 12"+ they had 2-6"...kinda looks like the warm tongue a lot of us dealt with in early Feb...

[IsentropicLift]

NYC does average more than PHL but not by much... all I'm saying is NYC's climo is more comparable with the PHL region than SNE. The difference between NYC's and Boston's average snowfall is way more significant than the difference between PHL-NYC

What do you expect, Boston is almost into Maine. It's more than a 6 hour drive up. I can make it to Philly in less than two hours.

[Snow_Miser]

There are exceptions to everything, but on average, NYC averages higher snowfall than Philly. Without looking at the numbers I don't want to speculate but I'm sure the difference is significant.

 

A friend of mine in Philadelphia has yet to receive any snowfall greater than 6 inches. I believe he's under 10 inches for the season there. The overall pattern this winter has definitely favored places northward.

 

We can see that with the February 8 2013 blizzard, places near NYC received around a foot, whereas places around PHL received close to an inch. Pretty large difference.

 

[Kaner587]

a more fair comparison would be NYC to BWI/DCA. I agree BOS and NYC are completely separate and the two most similar will be philly and NYC due to proximity of course.

[Zelocita Weather]

BOSTON averages 40"/yr.     NYC averages 29"/yr.    PHL averages 22"/yr.

 

NYC is closer to PHL than to BOS but not by much....

[earthlight]

Great post. Thank you. Now, question, you mention the GFS trending weaker with blocking when we get closer. How about the ECMWF?

The Euro has been pretty steady, with the typical fluctuations in strength and location. Those will have big impacts in our sensible weather as we move forward.

For now we have to carefully watch the ensembles and the position of the block as it moves forward in time. If we start to see it weakening or staying at 180 hours, we can throw a flag since we've already seen that multiple times this year.

[Zir0b]

BOSTON averages 40"/yr.     NYC averages 29"/yr.    PHL averages 22"/yr.

 

NYC is closer to PHL than to BOS but not by much....

JFK averages 22.7" and LGA 26" so I think you should take the average of the three NYC stations. Boston is 42.2" actually 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/snowfall.html

[Snow_Miser]

The Euro control run has a pretty large system off the coast of NJ with heavy precip into the region at day 8.

 

Sub 980 mb low just south of LI at hour 204. Looks pretty similar to the 2/27/10 storm which retrogrades just north of the city.

[Snow_Miser]

Is it wet or white?

 

It's white for the City on West. Long Island has some precipitation type problems. Details are pretty fruitless at this stage but it's interesting to see nonetheless.

[Edge Weather]

The Euro control run has a pretty large system off the coast of NJ with heavy precip into the region at day 8.

 

Sub 980 mb low just south of LI at hour 204. Looks pretty similar to the 2/27/10 storm which retrogrades just north of the city.

 

Yes, it has the storm that the operational run had slamming New England, slamming us instead. 

[Edge Weather]

The Euro control run has a pretty large system off the coast of NJ with heavy precip into the region at day 8.

 

Sub 980 mb low just south of LI at hour 204. Looks pretty similar to the 2/27/10 storm which retrogrades just north of the city.

 

At least it was coming from you this time instead of me, only because I was picking my car up in the shop, lol.  Anyway, yeah, it shows that low that slammed New England slamming us instead.  It has the Tuesday night into Wednesday storm warmer though, so it is a trade off, but I would take the trade off of the Tuesday night into Wednesday snowstorm for the blizzard on Friday depicted by the Control run, lol.

[wxman]

"I did like it better that way as us folks in the western burbs didn't feel like such outsiders."  

 

Me too, ever since the spit, Central Jersey is like a homeless stepchild and lost in the two regions. And I also agree Philly Climo differs from NYC, can't really compare the two. Examples: Feb 5 2010, Philly - 27" NYC - 0".    Feb 8-9 2013, Philly - 1.5"  NYC - 9" to 18".    

 

 

This seems like banter, but as long as we're on the topic, I HATE the NYC/PHL forum split.  There are great posters in each forum and it's a real PIA to keep going back and forth on discussion and obs.  The split can definitely not be justified based on "vast" differences in climo.  The New England thread covers Caribou and Stamford for gods sake!  More importantly is the vast expanse of NJ, with some areas closer to NYC, others to PHL.  It would be interesting to put the split up to a vote.  I suspect most will say they prefer the split based on regional pride.  

[Edge Weather]

The Control run has a 998mb low developing near Cape Hatteras at 186 hrs, deepening to 990mb about 100 miles off the Delmarva at 192hrs, then deepening to 982mb about 100 miles off shore of Atlantic City at 198 hrs with heavy snow and wind commencing, deepening to 980mb about 75 miles off of Sandy Hook and about 50 miles south of Eastern Long Island at 204 hrs with our entire area in the wrap around with heavy snow and strong winds for everyone, except Long Island is rain or sleet verbatim, then it takes the low inland across Eastern Long Island between 204 and 210 hrs as a 980mb low with the heavy precip starting to die down, it then retrogrades back to Ohio, continuing snow showers here through Monday, then goes out over the ocean and spins up another Nor’easter that makes landfall in Maine on Tuesday of the following week.  Nuts.  

[MJO812]

GFS went further east with next week's threat. Looks like a coastal hugger.

[Kaner587]

The Control run has a 998mb low developing near Cape Hatteras at 186 hrs, deepening to 990mb about 100 miles off the Delmarva at 192hrs, then deepening to 982mb about 100 miles off shore of Atlantic City at 198 hrs with heavy snow and wind commencing, deepening to 980mb about 75 miles off of Sandy Hook and about 50 miles south of Eastern Long Island at 204 hrs with our entire area in the wrap around with heavy snow and strong winds for everyone, except Long Island is rain or sleet verbatim, then it take the low inland across Eastern Long Island between 204 and 210 hrs as a 980mb low with the heavy precip starting to die down, it then retrogrades back to Ohio, continuing snow showers here through Monday, then goes out over the ocean and spins up another Nor’easter that makes landfall in Maine on Tuesday of the following week.  Nuts.  

sounds eerily similar to feb 26th-27th 2010

[Zelocita Weather]

GFS still verbatim is not much for most of us (too warm/late bloomer), but.....it did make a pretty big move in a good direction. Further east with the low and colder. Actually would have DC some snow and BOS mostly rain if that exact track was real.

[Edge Weather]

GFS went further east with next week's threat. Looks like a coastal hugger.

 

Crap.  I just checked, that is like borderline all snow back here at my location and for all of Warren and Sussex Counties.  Wow. Sounding at Andover at the start are -1.9 at 850 and +.8 at the surface at the start and at the end +.2 at 850 level and +.3 at surface.  Just west of there is all snow for sure.  Nice east trend though, that is what matters.