Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[Dsnowx53]

That Feb 26 thread went down the tubes really quickly and was all banter, so I deleted that thread and started this one. There is always the chance we could pull a rabbit out of our hats on Sunday night, despite the poor H5 look, but the pattern won't truly turn favorable until after the Feb 26 cutter, IMO, as we'll finally have non bootleg blocking with ridging building out west. Early March holds promise.

Let's get this discussion started, and keep the banter to the banter thread.

[IsentropicLift]

12Z GFS has the threat for the 26th. Tracks a miller B right over us. It's warm because of the track.

[IsentropicLift]

Big storm signal continues for the first week of March. Figures as I'll be in Florida until the third. Digging all the way into the gulf at hr 204 before turning the corner. Going to take a classic Miller A track. Hr 228 sub 996 low about 75-100 miles east of the outer banks. Hr 240 sub 980 low just southeast of the benchmark. Coast gets brushed this run.

[IsentropicLift]

What a long range pattern on the GFS verbatim. If that coastal gets captured a few hours sooner it's a Boxing Day redux. It's wash, rinse and repeat with another threat a few days later.

[CooL]

The long range (Day 7+) has me very excited. Classic west based blocking combined with a +PNA in late feb/early march is a recipe for success

[IsentropicLift]

12z GFS ensemble mean is in good agreement with the op for the threat around the 26th. Late spawning miller B. Decent storm for interior sections.

[MJO812]

The GGEM also shows the March 1- 2nd storm but it's a coastal hugger.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=228

[IsentropicLift]

GFS ensemble mean looks nothing like the op GFS for the early March threat. I guess it's about where you would expect it in this range.

[MJO812]

GFS ensemble mean looks nothing like the op GFS for the early March threat.

 

It's over 200 hours away so we can take the GFS and the GEFS with a grain of salt at this point. 2 storms to watch before that one.

[bullfr2121]

The long range (Day 7+) has me very excited. Classic west based blocking combined with a +PNA in late feb/early march is a recipe for success

 

The long range 7+ is always exciting...has been all winter, lol...its when it gets 2-3 days out everything falls apart

[CooL]

The long range 7+ is always exciting...has been all winter, lol...its when it gets 2-3 days out everything falls apart

 

It hasn't really, atleast for me...because we haven't had any good blocking at all

[sussexcountyobs]

Theres no thread for it, so I'll post here.

Mod-heavy snow falling here. 34.7

Its sticking too, temp falling

[MJO812]

Don Sutherland

"FWIW, the current mix of analog cases suggests the potential for a snowy March in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and New England. The Ohio Valley, southern Ontario and southern Quebec would likely seek their most snowfall in March since 2011.

Analog cases should not be used for making precise estimates of snowfall. What the above figures are useful in illustrating is the big picture idea that March could be snowier than usual in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions and that the Ohio Valley and parts of southern Canada should see a much snowier March than last winter."

[IsentropicLift]

12z Euro looks nothing like the GFS for the 26th threat.

[Allsnow]

12z Euro looks nothing like the GFS for the 26th threat.

It's pumping the se ridge and has the block further displaced. The general theme is for a storm in this general timeframe. That's all we should care about

[Allsnow]

Euro will probably run the apps this run.

[IsentropicLift]

HR 210 strong low pressure down in the southern gulf states.

[IsentropicLift]

It's pumping the se ridge and has the block further displaced. The general theme is for a storm in this general timeframe. That's all we should care about

The big differnece is no seconday low that the GFS shows. It takes the primary to the lakes and never transfers.

[CooL]

That lakes low needs to be farther east like on the GFS to block the storm from cutting

[IsentropicLift]

hr 216 major rain storm incoming.

[Allsnow]

The big differnece is no seconday low that the GFS shows. It takes the primary to the lakes and never transfers.

There is no secondary on the gfs. It's further east with gulf low. Stop giving wrong info

[IsentropicLift]

That lakes low needs to be farther east like on the GFS to block the storm from cutting

Nah, nothing is going to stop the lakes cutter. The GFS shows the transfer taking place to the coastal which is what keeps the 26th alive.

 

The March 1st threat doesn't cut at all. It's a classic Miller A type storm.

[Allsnow]

That lakes low needs to be farther east like on the GFS to block the storm from cutting

Exactly

[IsentropicLift]

There is no secondary on the gfs. It's further east with gulf low. Stop giving wrong info

We're talking about two different events. The secondary is for the 26th.

[Allsnow]

Nah, nothing is going to stop the lakes cutter. The GFS shows the transfer taking place to the coastal which is what keeps the 26th alive.

The March 1st threat doesn't cut at all. It's a classic Miller A type storm.

The end of the euro run is the march 1st threat

[IsentropicLift]

The end of the euro run is the march 1st threat

I'm well aware of that.

[Edge Weather]

Euro definitely has a big East Coast storm at the start of March, but details are very much in question.  Should be interesting.  I sure wish my first thread on this was not deleted. 

[IsentropicLift]

hr 234, she is transfering to a secondary, heavy precip over the area. Hr 240, sub 988 low just south of Long Island.

[Edge Weather]

Nah, nothing is going to stop the lakes cutter. The GFS shows the transfer taking place to the coastal which is what keeps the 26th alive.

 

The March 1st threat doesn't cut at all. It's a classic Miller A type storm.

 

This storm could easily be a coastal storm.  This set-up depicted is rather strange. 

[IsentropicLift]

Wow, even though it is transferring, you just are not giving up.  This storm could easily be a coastal storm.  This set-up depicted is rather strange. 

We were talking about two different storms. The storm for the 26th is a cutter no matter how you slice the cake. The only hope we have is that it transfers to the coast. The GFS shows the transfer to a weak storm hugging just inside the coast and moving right over us. The Euro doesn't have this at all.

 

For the March threat it pulls the storm up the Apps before a sloppy transfer just south of us. All rain verbatim anyway.