bluewave Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The top 5 analogs on the D11 analog forecast tool for today have some very stormy dates focused around the peak of west based blocking when March 2013 begins. As the MJO enters COD we should finally see the SE Ridge relax after passing through phase 4. While the exact storm details are tough to know from this far out, the models are hinting that we could see a cold storm track. The March 2010 storm featured a potent windstorm here with warmer antecedent temperatures than are currently forecast. The mid-February 1960 date looks like we got a light snowfall event here. The mid-March 1999 storm produced 4.5" snow in NYC off of 1.09 liquid equivalent. Everyone remembers the model mayhem that was associated with the early March 2001 storm threat. NYC finished with 3.5" snow from .62 liquid. One of the more difficult forecasts of the 2000's so far. Heavy snows out in Suffolk and up into new England. The late February 1998 low delivered 1.36 inches of rain in warmer conditions than are currently forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Good post, and strongly agree. Early March should hold the best potential since the Feb 8th-10th period. If current indications are correct, the first real / major -NAO blocking of the season will initiate by D7 and reach a climax by D 10-15 with low heights bellying underneath in the East. It's this period when the west based block retrogrades and matures near Hudson Bay that we could see an intense sfc low on the east coast. Feb 27th-March 7th will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The top 5 analogs on the D11 analog forecast tool for today have some very stormy dates focused around the peak of west based blocking when March 2013 begins. As the MJO enters COD we should finally see the SE Ridge relax after passing through phase 4. While the exact storm details are tough to know from this far out, the models are hinting that we could see a potentially cold storm track. 814analog.off.gif 12zecmwfenshourly850mbTempAnomalyNA240.gif 2013021812_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png The March 2010 storm featured a potent windstorm here with warmer antecedent temps than the long range models are currently showing. The mid-February 1960 date looks like we got a light snowfall event here. The mid-February 1999 storm produced 4.5" snow in NYC off of 1.09 liquid equivalent. Everyone remembers the model mayhem that was associated with the early March 2001 storm threat. NYC finished with 3.5" snow from .62 liquid. One of the more difficult forecasts of the 2000's so far. The late February 1998 low delivered 1.36 inches of rain with warmer conditions that are in the current forecast. The mid February 1960 storm is the first storm I can remember looking for the first flakes to fall...It took until after dark for the snow to start...It was a Saturday and Sunday morning it was over but had changed to freezing rain before it ended...about an inch fell...I believe inland got socked with the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Now this is what March coming in like a lion truly means. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Awesome post...Thought this was so cool, tonight's 00z GFS looks identical to March 4-6 2001 which is showing up on the analogs for this year. March 2001: 00z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Well, I actually started a thread about this a couple of days ago, but one of the moderators took it upon themselves to delete it. The GFS 0z run has a low 980's low off the New Jersey coast late next Thursday, and early next Friday and the Euro Control run has the same thing in the same spot at the same time. Two of the 6z GFS ensemble members have the same thing at the same time. So, the threat appears to be late next Thursday into next Friday, give or take. I still don't understand why for the life of me my post on this was deleted two days ago. I posted a very detailed analysis of this situation that now seems like it is working out nearly exactly as I posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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