SR Airglow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yup... What on earth are they basing that on to bring 4-8" all the way back here? Not liking the trend for SLK now, 6z GFS is less than 1/2" liquid up there, they tend to do great when it's way NW and you all rain, since they get the heavy snow as a result. How does this look for the Berkshire ski areas? (Butternut, Jiminy, BEast), If their going to do just as well as SLK, I have a friends house that I can stay at and not have to drive 5 hours each way... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That would make for some tortuous radar-watching. I have a feeling we haven't seen the last wrinkle out of this... I won't go jump in the river over the Nam, But overnight runs were not all that inspiring up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It looks like the surface os diving h5 on the Nam it's usually the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thought you guys would wanna see a version of a weenie snow map from the NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 the gfs is an awful model. Even with dropsondes galore it couldn't hit a the broadside of a barn with a rake. Maybe it should get with the nam sometimes with truly berserk numbers to give us a good chuckle.OMG thank you thank you thank you!!!! Touchdown!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It will tick back n a bit at the last moment...all of the big ones do. the blizzard Didnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 the gfs is an awful model. Even with dropsondes galore it couldn't hit a the broadside of a barn with a rake. Maybe it should get with the nam sometimes with truly berserk numbers to give us a good chuckle. It's definitely had some awful solutions inside 3 days. It just looks way too warm for places like ORH. I didn't look in ME, but I assume the same. It's hinted near the day 5 frame of storms while the euro didn't really agree, but when it counts...I feel like the GFS has disappointed at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Now we see how it can manage to screw both of us... I fully expect it ..never should have been hoodwinked by yesterday's earlier runs. Yup, You need it to hug the coastline further north before it pulls away, That's why yesterday runs were better for up here, But there will be problems for many on here with these various solutions, Some will get rain for others to get beneficial snow out of this, Or some will get shut out and the ones that would have seen rain will snow, Just the make up of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thought you guys would wanna see a version of a weenie snow map from the NAM: Crushed from Hfd Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Crushed from Hfd Northeast I'll take my 30" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Epic gradient across the Berkshires and E NY with that NAM run. Almost reminiscent of the blizzard where the east slope got pounded and it was just a pedestrian 8" event IMBY. I'd like to see it bomb out a hair earlier, but it's latitude placement would be good. Just one more solution of what will likely be many different scenarios that will play out on the models. Still too soon for a consensus or for accumulation maps IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 OMG thank you thank you thank you!!!! Touchdown!! Please use a tissue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'll take my 30" lol Dude...it is 30mm of liquid... a little over an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Crushed from Hfd Northeast It's really all of N CT on that map. NW CT gets more than NE CT verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'll take my 30" lol it's mm water equivalent. So you're like 25mm or about an inch water equivalent. so maybe 8-10" or so on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It's definitely had some awful solutions inside 3 days. It just looks way too warm for places like ORH. I didn't look in ME, but I assume the same. It's hinted near the day 5 frame of storms while the euro didn't really agree, but when it counts...I feel like the GFS has disappointed at times.when the chips are down and you need it most it is generally awful. Total opposite of the euro. I will look at it but rarely use it when biggies are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 when the chips are down and you need it most it is generally awful. Total opposite of the euro. I will look at it but rarely use it when biggies are on the table. When it counts, you can't beat it. I don't care what it shows day 8 or whatever, inside day 3 it's tough to beat. Yeah maybe it was too slow by 3 hrs in the blizzard, but very easy to adjust a bit to other guidance when that happens. I look at the GFS and other guidance to say maybe if the euro is too amped or juicy, but when it's consistent run after run..tough to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What can a block do for you... Looks like someone with bad photoshop skills blotted out the states of MA, RI, and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What on earth are they basing that on to bring 4-8" all the way back here? Not liking the trend for SLK now, 6z GFS is less than 1/2" liquid up there, they tend to do great when it's way NW and you all rain, since they get the heavy snow as a result. How does this look for the Berkshire ski areas? (Butternut, Jiminy, BEast), If their going to do just as well as SLK, I have a friends house that I can stay at and not have to drive 5 hours each way... -skisheep They probably aren't even paying attention to CT since it's not in their viewing area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 when the chips are down and you need it most it is generally awful. Total opposite of the euro. I will look at it but rarely use it when biggies are on the table. The GFS makes Tony Romo look like a clutch QB. Its amazing how bad it is every time there is a larger event. It performs pretty well in between, but like you said, when you really need it to come through the most, it folds like a cheap suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This is probably TSSN verbatim. Notice the pocket of LIs below 0 over the Cape. Despite LIs above 0 here, when you have a pocket of instability that is right next to the CCB..usually it means conditional instability if not pure instability. What a weenie model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I won't go jump in the river over the Nam, But overnight runs were not all that inspiring up this way Its the CNE and NNE winter from hell..... 3" from "Nemo"...... can't even bear to watch any more model runs with ticks south and east. Tired of being nickle and dimed to death in the Champlain Valley. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 it's mm water equivalent. So you're like 25mm or about an inch water equivalent. so maybe 8-10" or so on that run. Oops. Still, I'm in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I've searched everywhere with no luck but could someone define CCB please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The GFS makes Tony Romo look like a clutch QB. Its amazing how bad it is every time there is a larger event. It performs pretty well in between, but like you said, when you really need it to come through the most, it folds like a cheap suit. makes Mark Sanchez look like a hall of fame QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Love the Met GFS bashing. Been waiting a long time for this and its finally here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Love the Met GFS bashing. Been waiting a long time for this and its finally here Except many of your busts are also euro busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I've searched everywhere with no luck but could someone define CCB please? Cold Conveyor Belt https://www.google.com/search?q=cold+conveyer+belt&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 So is this storm worth another drive up to NE? And if so, where should I go?! I'm like a heroin addict chasing his fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I certainly feel your pain here west of ALB. We are pretty much on the same trajectory with this year's winter pattern. I have seen a lot of winter's where SNE gets hit better than us, but rarely such a consistent sharp cut-off. Maybe we can score with next week's system. Then again maybe not.... LOL Its the CNE and NNE winter from hell..... 3" from "Nemo"...... can't even bear to watch any more model runs with ticks south and east. Tired of being nickle and dimed to death in the Champlain Valley. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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