weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The only way we'll see 5-10 is if the NAM or euro held serve. We need dynamics and when you have to rely on dynamics, it gets extremely dicey and is a gamble. It's high stakes so it could play out, but not easy. But I'll tell you Scott....Harvey tells it like it is and doesn't wish cast which makes him so great despite a deep love of snow. If he's this bullish with all his experience that's a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not seeing much about NNE here this morning, but based on the taint-related SNE chatter I'm inferring that we're in an OK spot right now. I'd be happy with a few inches of fringe stuff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 But I'll tell you Scott....Harvey tells it like it is and doesn't wish cast which makes him so great despite a deep love of snow. If he's this bullish with all his experience that's a great sign. I think he's thinking euro and I agree, but like I said..we need dynamics. I want to be a little bullish, but for people near the water such as myself..it's tricky. You lose a few hours to meh rates or a more progressive solution and forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 If the euro comes in more bullish and holds serve, I'll feel much better. I think the GFS is clueless for areas like ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Will was right, those are some classic posts from Allsnow, he is obsessed with New England, giving the play by play last night how the GFS rains to ct mas border, then orh then clear to se New Hampshire, why would somebody who lives in the Mount Holly nws area post about what happens for BOX and GREY in a NYC thread..................its odd to say the least, at least he has moved on from BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 If the euro comes in more bullish and holds serve, I'll feel much better. I think the GFS is clueless for areas like ORH county. Yea it all comes down to the Euro, it basically held serve last nigh but with some dynamics differences, that is modelling though. Honestly I would rather be in Boston than Moosup for this one. One of those classic New England snowstorms where elevation and latitude are everything, but this could have a great flip if the CCB blows up backside. Still reminds me of 12//9/05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yea it all comes down to the Euro, it basically held serve last nigh but with some dynamics differences, that is modelling though. Honestly I would rather be in Boston than Moosup for this one. One of those classic New England snowstorms where elevation and latitude are everything, but this could have a great flip if the CCB blows up backside. Still reminds me of 12//9/05 We'll need a stronger s/w before entertaining 12/9/05..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We'll need a stronger s/w before entertaining 12/9/05..lol. Movement and intensifying as it moves due east along the south coast, pretty dynamic. Still has that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Movement and intensifying as it moves due east along the south coast, pretty dynamic. Still has that look Not even close IMHO. That thing was special in its own way. Regardless, hopefully we can keep that thing far enough south, I still expect shifts as we go forward and approach the event starting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 09z SREFs track the MSL just inside the BM. 1000mb low. 24h QPF is 1" for all of SNE. 0.5" line goes all the way up to the Canadian border, save for ME where the northern 1/2 tails off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 bully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Climo wins as slp will be well south and east of the cape, hopefully just at or inside the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Movement and intensifying as it moves due east along the south coast, pretty dynamic. Still has that look We do not invoke 12/9/05. Ever. It is a rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not even close IMHO. That thing was special in its own way. Regardless, hopefully we can keep that thing far enough south, I still expect shifts as we go forward and approach the event starting time. You are talking intensity I am talking 5 h 7h 8h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We do not invoke 12/9/05. Ever. It is a rule. I see glimpses of your banana appearing on overnight runs, going to be a special month Brett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I see glimpses of your banana appearing on overnight runs, going to be a special month Brett. Could've sworn I zipped up this morning. Seriously, though... Where do you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We do not invoke 12/9/05. Ever. It is a rule. That one was a diaper blowout to the edge of space...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You are talking intensity I am talking 5 h 7h 8h Fair enough, but plenty of other examples if talking mid levels. I hate when special analogs are tossed around. 12/9/05 is becoming another 12/92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I need the gulf stream off the east coast the USA to come to life for this to really do some justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not even close IMHO. That thing was special in its own way. Regardless, hopefully we can keep that thing far enough south, I still expect shifts as we go forward and approach the event starting time. I know Euro op had 1+ qpf . What did Euro ens mean have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I know Euro op had 1+ qpf . What did Euro ens mean have? I can't see QPF on the ensembles, but since the ensembles looked like the op, my guess is that they were similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Fair enough, but plenty of other examples if talking mid levels. I hate when special analogs are tossed around. 12/9/05 is becoming another 12/92. Not that it is special, but why has MLK 2010 been tossed around so much? Is it just the GFS that looked like that, because the other major guidance looks different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 09z SREFs track the MSL just inside the BM. 1000mb low. 24h QPF is 1" for all of SNE. 0.5" line goes all the way up to the Canadian border, save for ME where the northern 1/2 tails off Also, 850'0 0c line gets up to the CT/RI/MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Fair enough, but plenty of other examples if talking mid levels. I hate when special analogs are tossed around. 12/9/05 is becoming another 12/92. I hate when people think that special analogs upper air patterns are exclusive, ignore that they are similar but produce less intense result . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not that it is special, but why has MLK 2010 been tossed around so much? Is it just the GFS that looked like that, because the other major guidance looks different It had similarities like the big snow gradient from Tolland to Worcester. It's not far off regarding that. Plus, it gets a rise out of Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I hate when people think that special analogs upper air patterns are exclusive, ignore that they are similar but produce less intense result . We have countless storms with H5, H7 whatever lows...move under us. Why bring up 12/9/05? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That one was a diaper blowout to the edge of space...lol. I've never seen anything like it and I'll never forgive myself for losing the best photograph I've ever taken. I took a walk through the Christian Science Center right at the height of it, right through the empty reflecting pool. Only a single other soul was out there walking along with me, and I decided to try to capture the silhouette against the main church building. As I snapped the shot, lighting flashed and lit up my entire shot with bright blue, but there was so much snow that the person and church were still barely visible in the whiteout, which had been turned electric blue. Best photo ever, and part of the lore of an unforgettable storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Also, 850'0 0c line gets up to the CT/RI/MA border. I like the hangback look though as it scoots east. Also some spread in QPF over ern areas..might indicate CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I've never seen anything like it and I'll never forgive myself for losing the best photograph I've ever taken. I took a walk through the Christian Science Center right at the height of it, right through the empty reflecting pool. Only a single other soul was out there walking along with me, and I decided to try to capture the silhouette against the main church building. As I snapped the shot, lighting flashed and lit up my entire shot with bright blue, but there was so much snow that the person and church were still barely visible in the whiteout, which had been turned electric blue. Best photo ever, and part of the lore of an unforgettable storm. I can't believe you lost that. Man what a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 As in "it gon snow" ... I think, well maybe. Sure does beat 2012. SREF's huge. Feel like bait hook sinker on everyone one of these. i.e. BIG, next run gone, and 11th hour comes in with good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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