ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nice crush job for the interior...esp pike north, but even south gets in on the CCB action later on...not as dynamic as 12z but we expected that. Perhaps the others overreacted...its possible the Euro is just lagging behind the curve, but more often than not, the others overshoot and the Euro doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Fumble. The euro hasn't been steady it just made a pretty huge jump se (for the euro). I'm not too worried about it either way given the last few weeks i suspect we are still 75-100 miles from the final track good of bad. Steady is a relative term...def not the jump the others made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wow, even BOS gets hit pretty hard at 90-96h. Nice late CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro never really gets it much north of 40N either...but is dynamic enough to give BOS a good hit unlike the GGEM which was probably just a few inches. Its def agreeing with the trend of the faster N stream, but it hooked the ULL in the lakes more north and slower than the others which pushed it east, thus the Euro holds onto a more dynamic solution than the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wow, even BOS gets hit pretty hard at 90-96h. Nice late CCB. Yeah, it hangs around for a little while. Still a solid run for ORH and even points east towards Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah, it hangs around for a little while. Still a solid run for ORH and even points east towards Boston. The key is the lakes closed low...the Euro flips it north a bit more and not east like the others...and it allows the southern vort to catch up and be a bigger influence. So ORH to Ray in NE MA still get clubbed hard...and even BOS gets it too after some taint. We will see if the Euro reels the other guidance in tomorrow or if it is just lagging. Almost every time this winter inside 3 days, the Euro has done the former, so we'll hope that is the case this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Actually Euro is a decent run... Dr. Yes indeed... does not follow all the wagons north or weak southern wave business today. At 96h 0Z Sunday night has a 980 mb low that hits eMA pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The key is the lakes closed low...the Euro flips it north a bit more and not east like the others...and it allows the southern vort to catch up and be a bigger influence. So ORH to Ray in NE MA still get clubbed hard...and even BOS gets it too after some taint. We will see if the Euro reels the other guidance in tomorrow or if it is just lagging. Almost every time this winter inside 3 days, the Euro has done the former, so we'll hope that is the case this time too. Yeah, agreed, my money would be on the Euro. We'll see what happens though with the southern vort... still a couple days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Actually Euro is a decent run... Dr. Yes indeed... does not follow all the wagons north or weak southern wave business today. At 96h 0Z Sunday night has a 980 mb low that hits eMA pretty good. I am a bit surprised at how good it is for BOS...I figured it would be a lot weaker like other guidance, but it held onto a fairly strong solution even though it weakened from 12z...the dfference was far far less than the other models from their 12z runs, Euro integrates a lot of data even up to and after the 00z balloon launch...ECMWF invests a lot in that, so we hope that is why it can pick off model overreactions in this case like it does so often. Hopefully this is just another one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wow, even BOS gets hit pretty hard at 90-96h. Nice late CCB. 90-96? So it's trending way slower now I guess? Originally the end of the storm was Sunday early morning, now its snowing through Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 90-96? So it's trending way slower now I guess? Originally the end of the storm was Sunday early morning, now its snowing through Sunday night? It hangs it back...the brunt is still Sunday morning...but for eastern areas, they get clubbed pretty hard between 18z and 00z on Sunday. Weenie snow still happens by 18z Saturday. BOS actually takes it on the chin more like from 12z Sunday to 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 On Wundermaps comparing at ~ 87-96 hrs when CCB would be at peak over eMA... 0z tonight SLP is ~50 miles S/SE of 12z when it was clipping CC 0z tonight SLP is very close, maybe ~20 miles SW of 0z last night dynamics are slightly weaker so we don't get as prolific a CCB over eMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 90-96? So it's trending way slower now I guess? Originally the end of the storm was Sunday early morning, now its snowing through Sunday night? NWS Box zone forecast has W MA snowing through sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Phil actually gets croaked on this run on the Cape for about 6-8 hours....the slide due east really makes it for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Anything for the northern Ct crowd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattm42 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What does this run give the North Shore? Places like Salem/Lynn/etc. Just trying to figure out what i'll need for work this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Anything for the northern Ct crowd? Yeah some...but some taint too. Prob a couple inches to mix/rain, and then back to snow for a couple more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It hangs it back...the brunt is still Sunday morning...but for eastern areas, they get clubbed pretty hard between 18z and 00z on Sunday. Weenie snow still happens by 18z Saturday. BOS actually takes it on the chin more like from 12z Sunday to 00z Monday. Thanks Will. Looks like maybe 16" ORH and 10-12" up here on the northern edge of the better stuff and 8-12" in BOS as the CCB crushes them Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What does this run give the North Shore? Places like Salem/Lynn/etc. Just trying to figure out what i'll need for work this weekend. SnowMan. You know, you can post for 5 posts today...its after midnight from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks Will. Looks like maybe 16" ORH and 10-12" 7" up here due to downslope on the northern edge of the better stuff and 8-12" in BOS as the CCB crushes them Sunday? Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Fixed. Hater. All my met major are seeing 1" qpf over us and saying 10-12"...I'm trying to explain a 6-10" forecast is probably better lol. This is my first real storm here (winter break during December storms and went home for Blizz) so I'm interested to see how bad the downsloping is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I am a bit surprised at how good it is for BOS...I figured it would be a lot weaker like other guidance, but it held onto a fairly strong solution even though it weakened from 12z...the dfference was far far less than the other models from their 12z runs, Euro integrates a lot of data even up to and after the 00z balloon launch...ECMWF invests a lot in that, so we hope that is why it can pick off model overreactions in this case like it does so often. Hopefully this is just another one of those times. Yeah I'm surprised as well after all the monkey business today from other guidance. ULL closes off between 90-93h, perfect timing and CCB clips the coast / CC as it moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hater. All my met major are seeing 1" qpf over us and saying 10-12"...I'm trying to explain a 6-10" forecast is probably better lol. This is my first real storm here (winter break during December storms and went home for Blizz) so I'm interested to see how bad the downsloping is. NE wind is AWFUL there...so is NNE wind, but not quite as bad. You want like a N or more prefreably NNW wind. This is something you aren't used to back in ORH county on the east side of the hills (even though you are lower than ORH, E side of the hills is still good)....this time you have something kind of important called the Presidential Range to your NE. You will still prob do okay there, but always temper QPF in that situation...trust me, we had a similar phenomenon out in Ithaca....just like you when I was 18 years old going out there my freshman year, I was envisioning mounds of snow so high I couldn't see anything, but then quickly realized that ORH actually matches or actually exceeds the snowfall of Ithaca....in your case, Shrewsbury can't quite match Plymouth for snow, but it prob isn't as much of a rout as you thought before investigating. One thing Plymouth has over Ithaca though for you vs my experience is snow pack retention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah Will, exactly. Yearly SF is like 10" different (65" vs. 75" or so), but retention is the real difference. I know that a lot of people up here expected more snow, but I kind of knew it wouldn't be much better aside from retention of snow (although this year we've been down to grass twice, but only for a brief few days). Definitely interested to see what total I measure Sunday compared to surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NE wind is AWFUL there...so is NNE wind, but not quite as bad. You want like a N or more prefreably NNW wind. This is something you aren't used to back in ORH county on the east side of the hills (even though you are lower than ORH, E side of the hills is still good)....this time you have something kind of important called the Presidential Range to your NE. You will still prob do okay there, but always temper QPF in that situation...trust me, we had a similar phenomenon out in Ithaca....just like you when I was 18 years old going out there my freshman year, I was envisioning mounds of snow so high I couldn't see anything, but then quickly realized that ORH actually matches or actually exceeds the snowfall of Ithaca....in your case, Shrewsbury can't quite match Plymouth for snow, but it prob isn't as much of a rout as you thought before investigating. One thing Plymouth has over Ithaca though for you vs my experience is snow pack retention. It's really true, downsloping from all directions but NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It's really true, downsloping from all directions but NW. I used to think (before the advent of great data on the internet) that Ithaca would smoke ORH even though I saw their avg snowfall was similar...I thought the snowpack would be deeper....boy I was I wrong...Ithaca looses snowpack like Taylor Swift goes through boyfriends....despite a colder climate than ORH...its all in the CAD. No CAD at all in ITH....not an issue in plymouth, NH....but plymouth has the same problem with "big events" in that they almost always downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I used to think (before the advent of great data on the internet) that Ithaca would smoke ORH even though I saw their avg snowfall was similar...I thought the snowpack would be deeper....boy I was I wrong...Ithaca looses snowpack like Taylor Swift goes through boyfriends....despite a colder climate than ORH...its all in the CAD. No CAD at all in ITH....not an issue in plymouth, NH....but plymouth has the same problem with "big events" in that they almost always downslope. Even in some of the big events, places like HIE will stay VFR throughout. Weenie flakes and nothing more. They like to torch quickly on the SWFE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hater. All my met major are seeing 1" qpf over us and saying 10-12"...I'm trying to explain a 6-10" forecast is probably better lol. This is my first real storm here (winter break during December storms and went home for Blizz) so I'm interested to see how bad the downsloping is. Id be surprised if you don't see 10". Ive been trying to figure out a favorable wind direction for Plymouth for years but come short. I don't think NNW or NW is all that helpful honestly, thats usually when Id start looking for precip to shut down. Good just to the north up 93, yes, not so much in town. Don't be so paranoid that you moved to a snow hole, Ive spent plenty of years there, in the long run its so much better than the ORH hills and I honestly can't remember any synoptic snowstorms that utterly screwed Plymouth while areas in all directions cashed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Even in some of the big events, places like HIE will stay VFR throughout. Weenie flakes and nothing more. They like to torch quickly on the SWFE too. Terrain effects still amaze me sometimes, even though I've seen them for 10+ years now in detail while paying attention from ITH to ORH...even a poster like Hubbdave to the north of me will suffer in just the right setup vs ORH, despite him averaging more snow by like 6" per winter. And I always see almost every time driving west into the western slopes of the ORH hills...the snowpack just reduces by the mile. Ekster and I talked about this after the Dec 2008 ice storm...the west side of the ORH hills got off WAY less than the east side and the spine. We had east side FIT at 300 feet getting smoked with catastrophic power outages while a place like Greenfield, MA or Sundarland got relatively little despite slightly higher elevation. Always a fascinating phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Id be surprised if you don't see 10". Ive been trying to figure out a favorable wind direction for Plymouth for years but come short. I don't think NNW or NW is all that helpful honestly, thats usually when Id start looking for precip to shut down. Good just to the north up 93, yes, not so much in town. Don't be so paranoid that you moved to a snow hole, Ive spent plenty of years there, in the long run its so much better than the ORH hills and I honestly can't remember any synoptic snowstorms that utterly screwed Plymouth while areas in all directions cashed in. I think plymouth is worse than the N ORH hills above 1000 feet....places like Princeton, Westminster, and Ashburnham. However I guess one has to assign the value to what is worse or better. Plymouth retains snow pretty well...but they cannot get a large event easily. Their average is very similar to those previously mentioned spots. I'd pick plymouth over weatherMA's previous spot in the lower reaches of the ORH hills though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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