SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This storm is still days away... this could go to a non-event or crush Long Island. The possibilities of solutions is endless at this time range. Still like a mid-range event. Fair enough there, most storms aren't going to get locked in half a week out and stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Next week was pretty much a rainer for you and I. Was the 12z EURO '100 hour snowstorm' for the end of next week/weekend? Also, is the EURO currently the coldest solution for the 24th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GGEM is SE and weaker too...near the BM at 84 hours or even a shade south. Good hit for interior SNE pike northward and CNE...drifts E after that. Weaker dynamics equals less qpf and no big flash to S+ for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I can't wait to hear how an inch or two of rain and pretty good winds will have no impact on snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GGEM is SE and weaker too...near the BM at 84 hours or even a shade south. Good hit for interior SNE pike northward and CNE...drifts E after that. Weaker dynamics equals less qpf and no big flash to S+ for SE MA. Temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Temps? Too warm in CT...maybe N CT can hold snow for a bit...its cold enough aloft in most of MA for most of it...maybe tickles the pike briefly. The weaker dynamics make it tougher for a place like BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Was the 12z EURO '100 hour snowstorm' for the end of next week/weekend? Also, is the EURO currently the coldest solution for the 24th? Yes and yes. The euro took the low next week which was rain for us and stalled it to our east, flipping us to snow and having it snow for hours and hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GGEM nevers gets the low north of 40N...it drifts back ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GGEM nevers gets the low north of 40N...it drifts back ESE. That would be an insult to have a storm near the BM and be rain because it's pedestrian and lacks dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GGEM nevers gets the low north of 40N...it drifts back ESE. So, as the low takes more southerly track, which is what we wanted, the temps respond by getting warmer? Lousy dynamics, I guess.. What a rotten suite of runs... ! Can Dr. No be Dr. Yes for an evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 So, as the low takes more southerly track, which is what we wanted, the temps respond by getting warmer? This storm is all about dynamics. The elevated interior would probably pick up a low to medium warning event in that case...but the lower spot might struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This storm is still days away... this could go to a non-event or crush Long Island. The possibilities of solutions is endless at this time range. Still like a mid-range event. Yup, still way too much time to lock anything in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Isnt throwing in the towel now just as silly as locking in 18 inches was earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This storm is all about dynamics. The elevated interior would probably pick up a low to medium warning event in that case...but the lower spot might struggle. Can we get the storm to take a southerly track + dynamics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Isnt throwing in the towel now just as silly as locking in 18 inches was earlier? Depends.. We're about 3 days from the event. I wouldnt throw in the towel now for any model unless Dr. No behaves like his namesake and supports the other models saying no to this event for a good chunk of southern NE... I cant recall too many times its been wrong within 72 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That's back to a better track, but we'll need the srn Vort to dig for oil south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GEFS track it over the BM...but they look generally to be suffering the same fate of the rest of the 00z suite sans NAM....weaker dynamics. Though there are some stronger ones in there for sure probably just looking at qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GEFS track it over the BM...but they look generally to be suffering the same fate of the rest of the 00z suite sans NAM....weaker dynamics. Though there are some stronger ones in there for sure probably just looking at qpf. I'm just having trouble taking the GFS seriously after the past few events. Let's see what the 00z Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Is it a hiccup? Ingestion of bad data? Or a bonafide trend to be taken seriously? Not knowing this answer is what drives me nuts.. In this time frame, I generally begin to take it seriously, unfortunately.. But, not really seriously until Dr. No weighs in, especially in this, its temporal wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Anyone notice any improvement in the GGEM since they updated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS definitely demonstrating the importance of the location of the closed low over the Great Lakes. Past runs today really able to keep the two disturbances separate and sling shot our shortwave south of LI, where SNE gets some awesome upper level dynamics with some of the strongest vort advection turning northward over land. The 00z run has the closed low a little E-NE pretty early on which makes a big difference. Ends up shearing our shortwave pretty good, and have the strung out energy simply rotating around the low, which means much weaker dynamics, and also directed further east, not turned northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Eh may just be coincidence but .. the S/W is just coming on board out west and go figure, system immediately becomes middling at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Pretty bad runs tonight across the board. The GGEM was lousy in particular, no sugarcoating. I don't think it produces warning snows anywhere. The NCEP models bumped up QPF across NNE over the past day, but overall the modeled magnitude of the potential storm has clearly decreased. Latest guidance does not develop mid-levels lows near or south of the SNE coast. That kills the big storm idea, regardless of the eventual track. I buy the latest trends. The longwave trof evolution is far from classic. But there's clearly still room when looking at h5 to bring back the big solutions of yesterday. For now I'd go with a frontside latitudinal and elevationally dependent thump with northern mountain taking the cake. Hoping it changes for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Anyone notice any improvement in the GGEM since they updated?Hard to say. It was a little late coming onboard with last weekends system especially just east of Maine. High winds made qpf verification kind of a moot point. Was probably better than the average though, decent for last weekends event. Overall been a pretty good year for the CMC stuff. There really hasn't been an instance where 6-12 hours before an event it was still struggling like the ncep stuff has done.One thing to keep in mind is even with last weekends mega storm it was a little slower than the more aggressive 3- 4 day models had it developing. It still blew up just a little later in a slightly more progressive flow along the coast which made all the difference. Ggem never bought into a big hit as I recall inside of 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Party ain't over till the JMA says it's over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Party ain't over till the JMA says it's over... CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif That's an old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hard to say. It was a little late coming onboard with last weekends system especially just east of Maine. High winds made qpf verification kind of a moot point. Was probably better than the average though, decent for last weekends event. Overall been a pretty good year for the CMC stuff. There really hasn't been an instance where 6-12 hours before an event it was still struggling like the ncep stuff has done. One thing to keep in mind is even with last weekends mega storm it was a little slower than the more aggressive 3- 4 day models had it developing. It still blew up just a little later in a slightly more progressive flow along the coast which made all the difference. Ggem never bought into a big hit as I recall inside of 3-4 days. Thanks, Rollo...appreciate your response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro says turn out the lights on your way out. Solution shifted quite a bit SE. Still evolving, probably not worth spending much time fretting over details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Euro says turn out the lights on your way out. False start. Euro is pretty good. Not nearly the ugliness that the GFS or Ukie is. Trended a bit weaker, but not nearly to the extent as the others. Steady Euro might be a clue that the others overreacted which is not unusual in the 72-84h time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 False start. Euro is pretty good. Not nearly the ugliness that the GFS or Ukie is. Trended a bit weaker, but not nearly to the extent as the others. Steady Euro might be a clue that the others overreacted which is not unusual in the 72-84h time range. Fumble. The euro hasn't been steady it just made a pretty huge jump se (for the euro). I'm not too worried about it either way given the last few weeks i suspect we are still 75-100 miles from the final track good of bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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