Tropopause_Fold Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 So typical for the GFS to do this ... it just has a propensity to drop southern stream impulses in middle ranges - it's like it has a gene for it, just so much as one can have blue eyes, this is it's brown eye. In this run, there is a slight more northern stream dynamics dumped into the impulse near 84 hours out of the Dakotas, but the southern stream is weakened to the point where it's ineffectual by 100 or so hours. My hunch is the other model types won't be so stingy with that. gfs is still pretty close to a decent event anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 gfs is still pretty close to a decent event anyway. Yeah, I see nothing to "toss it", per se. I'd stick with the Ensm at this point as they seem to have been a bit more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS is probably a long drawn out advisory event. Though I do not think it will play out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 As we head into blocky regime ... expect the GFS to perform less adequately. It's native speed bias is in conflict with blocking, such that it either shreds reality, or produces delusions with higher frequency resulting in poorer overall performance. This is why it performed seemingly so well in the several weeks prior to the blizzard - the flow was actually verifying faster than normal, much of the time, which gave the GFS an advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS is super warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Probably too warm, but close to a meltdown for Kev while Will is ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Heh, the NAM's last 3 cycles have had .49, .68, and .36 at BOS on the FRH grid. Synoptically, there is a big fist of DPVA ripping up over the top of a fairly steep baroclinic axis as that quasi closed low in the N GL's carves east over night. Not sure which QPF will verify ... Course of least regret may just be to take the average, because the evolution in the charting shows that the difference between that .33" and .68" isn't really systemic, but is entirely based on nuanced differences in where the model locates the action. The .68 happens to be over eastern zones and the coastal plain; the latter .33 is because the max region is about 1.23 miles off the coast. BL is "springy" today, but it is going to stay cold just off the deck. When that DPVA rips overhead there is likely to be a UVM spike, regardless, and the column should burst snow for a while tonight. If the .68 were closer to reality, you may be be talking 3 or 4" for a few folks. I just looked at the GFS and synoptically it's evolution isn't appreciably different - slightly less QPF, but that could simply be a matter of not having the same dynamical resolution. The 00z GGEM also smokes a .25 to .4" liq equiv from CT through SE NH during a dynamical thickness collapse... You know, I think there is enough evidence for a 2-4" snow fall that we may be glossing over an interesting, albeit low impactor, in lieu of bigger ticket potentials in the middle range, and beyond. The con is mainly the warmish boundary layer, but we have to remember that from mid Feb to the end of March, warm days in an improved solar insolation can be eradicated with extreme rapidity... hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I mean the 24th. Warm at all levels..hopefully too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Is there any meteorological mechanism that can bring this thing north a little bit? I'm in the Southern NH / Norther Merrimack Valley snow hole and hoping for some relief. Also, I'd like to at least see the smaller mountains around Southern NH get involved in this one. Please give me a mechanism, phenomena, or excape route to root for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I mean the 24th. Warm at all levels..hopefully too warm. Did not look closely at that one, Its looked like garbage up here, Euro has the right idea i think if its not thru the grinder for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Does anyone have axis to UKMET runs that display more than every 12 hours? Looks like the 00z was sort of GGEM like, but actually winds it more pretty good - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Let's just say the 12z GFS Ensm are juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Let's just say the 12z GFS Ensm are juicy. Juicy and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Juicy and cold? Not too cold from what I'm seeing. Could be a little wet for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Juicy and cold? Not too cold from what I'm seeing. Could be a little wet for us. Show; don't tell. Marginal for South Coast areas but it looks cold enough once you move inland. Verbatim, it also looks like SW areas may have issues until the mid-levels develop as the storm exits the coast. E MA, CC look like they are ~1.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Not too cold from what I'm seeing. Could be a little wet for us. Looks plenty cold to me. Maybe southern CT-RI-CC has some ML problems early, but we quickly cool. Ensemble mean is a solid warning event for much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Let's just say the 12z GFS Ensm are juicy. Haven't seen the individuals but I would bet the wet ones are warm and the cold ones are dry, resulting in a mean SLP position and QPF distribution that looks deceptively like a snowstorm. But of course at this range it doesn't really matter what the specifics show. I'm just glad the GFS and ens are showing a moderately strong coastal storm, basically in line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 ...WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE US... OVERVIEW... MANUAL SURFACE GRAPHICS CONTINUE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST COAST. THE 19/00Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5...WHICH REMAINS ON THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SIDE OF THE SPREAD VS THE CANADIAN/GEFS AND NAEFS. SPREAD ENLARGES ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC AND DOWNWIND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES FOR DAYS 6-7...AND MUCH OF IT...IS TIED TO TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE STRENGTH EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SYSTEM RELEVANCE... THE DAY 3 SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES REMAINED ON TRACK WITH LITTLE VARIATION FROM CONTINUITY. DOWNSTREAM...CONDITIONS REMAINED FAVORABLE FOR SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST/PIEDMONT REGION AND BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT/ UPGLIDE OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION POSITIONED INVOF THE GREAT LAKES. THE DAY 4-5 SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS IT TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TO FULLY RESPECT THE 19/00Z GEFS/GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE TO SWIFTLY EJECT THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT...THE UPSTREAM PATTERN IS DRIVING THIS SOLUTION AND RECENT TRENDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN THAN WHAT THE 19/00Z GFS PACKAGES SUGGEST. THE DAY 4-5 SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OUT WEST IN THE GREAT BASIN...APPEARS TO EJECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE DETERMINISTIC THICKNESS/TEMPERATURE FIELDS DO NOT SUPPORT A `LONE` OR SINGLE (VERTICALLY-STACKED) CYCLONE. RATHER A COMPLEX `TROWAL`...AND TRIPLE POINT LOW STRUCTURE. ONE THAT EJECTS AND INTENSIFIES AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN DAYS 6-7. THE `TROWAL` STRUCTURE IS DEPICTED ON THE SURFACE GRAPHICS AS A COMPLEX OCCLUSION...WITH THE PRIMARY WAVE EMERGING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REPRESENTING SOMETHING THAT PATTERNS ITSELF MORE LIKE A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Haven't seen the individuals but I would bet the wet ones are warm and the cold ones are dry, resulting in a mean SLP position and QPF distribution that looks deceptively like a snowstorm. But of course at this range it doesn't really matter what the specifics show. I'm just glad the GFS and ens are showing a moderately strong coastal storm, basically in line with other guidance. nope. the gfs and its ensembles are just taking the energy through the lakes further N and E than the euro owing to much less ridging extending up into James Bay...consequently the primary is further north and east, the secondary forms later is is generally weaker and there's greater mid-level warming out ahead of them. and the gfs tends to run mild anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 There's def some good hits in the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro not on board yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Actually blossoms last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Actually blossoms last minute. wagons to E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 wagons to E MA I'd like a bit more oomph, but looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z Euro looks like one of those long duration easterly flow deals with -SN for higher elevations, maybe a -RA/SN mix or -RA for the coastal plain as BL looks a bit warm. SE areas get the most QPF, but it's still not really enthusiastic about this threat. Still playing the role of Dr. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'd like a bit more oomph, but looked good. yeah. it's not acting on the most favorable thermal environment. i haven't had a chance to see the particulars of this run but on the 00z at least the energy looked potent enough to offset that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I don't mind the Euro look right now...that's a decent vort track underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 we are entering the time of year now when modeled thermal fields become deceptive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 How so? Explain A few hundreths spread out through the day mean non accumulating flakes. Your accumulating light snow all day is deceptive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS and euro are different for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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