ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 SREFs almost identical to 15z...they are slightly weaker though and thus push the 0C line about 5 miles north of 15z...SLP spread has increased rather than decreased...mostly to the east of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 18Z GFS is fantastic for this area. I'm not sure what the ENY peoplewere worrying about. Maybe ALB itself taints briefly, but mainly snow. Look who's out of hiding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Back to Caroga Lake maybe ...this time they may be ground zero. LOL Will, Scott...worth chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Srefs admittedly it of their useful range has a ton of snow already by 87 hours.....1+ qpf and cold and not even the ht of the storm by the runs end. How do you run the plume thingy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 How do you run the plume thingy? It won't be out for a bit, Plus there just picking up on this threat so there is not a lot of data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 How do you run the plume thingy? It's early....probably 9:15-9:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It won't be out for a bit Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks Here is the link in case you don't have it, Just need to pick your area dave http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130220&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LEW&INC=&NNC=ARW&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=44.021129222153114&mLON=-70.07008843880271&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm not a Meteorologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. I actually did stay at a Holiday Inn Express over the weekend. Pretty much sucked. Sorry, you live too close to me. The low will go up the NY/NE border and we'll get rain. You watch. Where are you, Charles?? SREFs almost identical to 15z...they are slightly weaker though and thus push the 0C line about 5 miles north of 15z...SLP spread has increased rather than decreased...mostly to the east of the system. That spread to the east is a good thing--should bring the colder air further south, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Here is the link in case you don't have it, Just need to pick your area dave http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130220&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LEW&INC=&NNC=ARW&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=44.021129222153114&mLON=-70.07008843880271&mTYP=roadmap Thank you and bookmarked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wasn't any point in crashing SNE's party. LOL ..Finally something of interest here. Look who's out of hiding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It's early....probably 9:15-9:30? I think it comes out around the time the NAM finishes since the op NAM is used in the plumes. That doesn't mean anything. To not look at an off hour run is bad judgement. Over the last month 6z and 18z have been a bit worse than the on-hour runs at H5, but I agree...it's worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 He is in southern VT ... Hi Charles ...seems like you vanished about a decade ago. Should be a good track for you I'm thinking. I actually did stay at a Holiday Inn Express over the weekend. Pretty much sucked. Where are you, Charles?? That spread to the east is a good thing--should bring the colder air further south, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wasn't any point in crashing SNE's party. LOL ..Finally something of interest here. I really hope you get crushed over the next 40 days or so. You guys have really had it bad. Name with N NH, ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think it comes out around the time the NAM finishes since the op NAM is used in the plumes. Over the last month 6z and 18z have been a bit worse than the on-hour runs at H5, but I agree...it's worth looking at. If I made a snow map at 4pm, the 18z GFS at 3.5 days out would not sway me, but if the 00z GFS ticked north or stayed put, then yeah I may tweak the map considering I have more than one run that made this change. That's a good way to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I like that is gonna be quality snow. I prefer 10-1 type snow and holds up much better in the face of the late winter sunshine. In that storm that crushed SNE I did get 9" but it was like 15 or 20-1 stuff I really hope you get crushed over the next 40 days or so. You guys have really had it bad. Name with N NH, ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 NAM time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I like that is gonna be quality snow. I prefer 10-1 type snow and holds up much better in the face of the late winter sunshine. In that storm that crushed SNE I did get 9" but it was like 15 or 20-1 stuff Yeah the snow from the blizzard vanished here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Is this cheesy/bad form to post? From Mr. T: several Inches could fall over southern CT BEFORE the Mix or changeover and most of INTERIOR SE NY will stay all snow or mixed then go back to snow... northern CT all of mass up to Worcester stays all snow as does all of eastern NY NH VT and Maine. 12-24" are POSSIBLE in these areas... and western and central Mass intom southern NH 24"+ is also Possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 DT says CNE 12-24, Boston brief taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 DT says CNE 12-24, Boston brief taint. Yes he's ripping the euro. If the 00z euro changes, so will he. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 EURO has that locked in look on Op and Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 DT says CNE 12-24, Boston brief taint. 24"+ POSSIBLE ummm....I think not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yes he's ripping the euro. If the 00z euro changes, so will he.nothing new about his r and r Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 24"+ POSSIBLE ummm....I think not... If the Euro verified, ORH would probably have had close to 2 feet...and over towardNE MA and SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 24"+ POSSIBLE ummm....I think not... It's fun to say though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 nothing new about his r and r I'll be surprised if it's a brief taint. It would have to go south of the 12z euro track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 would have to think early thoughts of 2-4" with rain south of 84/PVD, 4-6 for Kevin over toward NW CT/NRI then 6-10 from Wxmanmitch to ORH to BOS then some weenie area of 10-15" near HubbDave to SNH...I'm also not a met so I can bust on that horribly and it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 24"+ POSSIBLE ummm....I think not... well 2 inches of QPF gives big numbers but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 DT says CNE 12-24, Boston brief taint. DT" as the Midwest Low dies off the 2ndary reforms SAT over the SE States... tracks over far eastern VA.. across the Delmarva and close to Cape Cod/ the " benchmark" area ( 40n and 70w) by Sunday am. This coastal track COMBINED with a weakening HIGH to the northeast... that has "old" cold air ... and that is weay too far east.. will allow low level snow to rain over NJ NYC long Island much of CT RI and eastern Mass. several Inches could fall over southern CT BEFORE the Mix or changeover and most of INTERIOR SE NY will stay all snow or mixed then go back to snow... northern CT all of mass up to Worcester stays all snow as does all of eastern NY NH VT and Maine. 12-24" are POSSIBLE in these areas... and western and central Mass intom southern NH 24"+ is also Possible. BOSTON mixes for 6 hrs but does NOT go over to all/ Plain rain." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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