Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 i mean if you look at the 12z Euro at 84..we've seen a lot less favorable setups deliver significant snowstorms to the region..even to the coast.. I'd take my chances with that look any day I guess is what i'm trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 hmm, to chase I think I'm going to need at least 18 if this trends longer duration and 18+ looks doable, and anyone chases this in the M.A i would advise not to stay in ORH as a first choice, it's not a nice city, (at least not the city areas) and most of the hotels are no where near the 1k that the airport is ....more like 450-550. Rte 2 (west of fitchburg) where the elevation rises sharply to 900+ over western 1/3 of the town to say templeton offers a nice 10 mile stretch of hotels for storm chasing. ie westminster, gardner. may not be a bad area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My reasoning is we are late in the season with cold waters relatively speaking..we do have a high(though not necc. in the ideal position), and a storm that is dynamic,, with crashing heights even to the coast...and a block. Now if we didn't have a block or if any of those other tangibles we missing..then there's no doubt we'd see rain into the deep interior. But we do have all the necc pieces in place to keep this a mainly colder ptype scenario ..Again..maybe they aren't ideal...but they are there in one degree or another. i just have a hard time buying the GFS scenario of driving all that rain almost to ORH given what we have in place preceding the storm. maybe I'm crazy..but that's how I see it. Climo argues for a a BM or just inside track. I think you will be fine, typical 84 hr gonzo on the bongzo from the GFS. The airmass is marginal, but dynamics BZ and much warmer waters to our southeast will ensure a track out that way. 0z will tickle that way, 6z make a major move. You will be fine KW........enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWeiner_Hater Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You need a tag I'm not a Meteorologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My reasoning is we are late in the season with cold waters relatively speaking..we do have a high(though not necc. in the ideal position), and a storm that is dynamic,, with crashing heights even to the coast...and a block. Now if we didn't have a block or if any of those other tangibles we missing..then there's no doubt we'd see rain into the deep interior. But we do have all the necc pieces in place to keep this a mainly colder ptype scenario ..Again..maybe they aren't ideal...but they are there in one degree or another. i just have a hard time buying the GFS scenario of driving all that rain almost to ORH given what we have in place preceding the storm. maybe I'm crazy..but that's how I see it. Well I agree that the GFS, even if that track happened, is too warm so yes..I don't agree about rain to ORH for hours. You are right about the other factors, but when we have a borderline situation..a few tweaks here and there mean 4" or 14". IMHO, I think you'll see some good snows. Maybe not 18", but I think they'll be fairly significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This will probably juicier than MLK 2010 was...there was a tight gradient right near the pike on that one. Megan was up visiting from NJ at the time and when she drove back she said the snow diappeared rapidly as soon as she hit 84 south from the pike. It was like 10" near me and just north and maybe 3-5" in Sturbridge. The qpf should should be more expansive to the north too. Hmm, the archived BOX PNS from 1/18/10 only had 4.3" at ORH. Bad measurement? I was actually out of town for that event, but remember returning to about 2-3" of hard packed sleet here. Not really, that was like 2" at my house down low but only about 5" up in Shelburne/Colrain. I recall my disappointment when i thought I was going to have a big ski day out in the woods. Oh well, I stand corrected. ALY and BOX PNS statements were pretty paltry from that event across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Its amazing that we will likely have almost 3 identical sat pics from the last three storms and they all will have gotten to that spot in different ways........climo is strong this time of year, perhaps stronger than at any other time of year. Late Feb into mid March is snow time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You need a tag hater. Mainers meh. LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Read the whole thread since this morning...phew! Looks like taint is likely but a hellacious thump may be in the cards if the low goes wild ala cmc. I enjoyed the d9-?? Multi day euro snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charleskoz Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Saturday Night And Sunday: Snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 90 percent. Sunday Night: Snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent. Sorry, you live too close to me. The low will go up the NY/NE border and we'll get rain. You watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Read the whole thread since this morning...phew! Looks like taint is likely but a hellacious thump may be in the cards if the low goes wild ala cmc. I enjoyed the d9-?? Multi day euro snowstorm.Yea what a weenie solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Sorry, you live too close to me. The low will go up the NY/NE border and we'll get rain. You watch. Charles Charles Charles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm not a Meteorologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. We don't have a Holiday Inn Express tag so you will have to settle with the red one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 So Phil , let's talk tides, wind and two pretty big storms in 4 days. The way I see it. The seas will not get a chance to lay down, tides increase, multiple tide cycles on a very damaged shoreline. Beginning to think this might be a bigger story as the week passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm not a Meteorologist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. lol, I was on my Iphone in mobile mode, Did not see it.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 hater. Mainers meh. LoL I must have power....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMet Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You are a meteorologist. Why wouldn't you look at an 18Z model run? Doesn't mean you swallow it whole, but it is data and I would assume you would want to see it. As for me, I just wait to be told when I should get excited. The point of a 6 / 18z run of a global model is simply to use up spare compute cycles while we wait for the next round of upper air reports. In practice it just provides another full-resolution ensemble member as the physics are being dominated by very similar initial conditions. Considering the scales of typical background error covariances in the data assimilation system, there is very little novel information on a synoptic scale. (Using the words "data assimilation" is where we queue the ECMWF vs NCEP discussion.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What a night...next storm might be nudging further north, and currently getting ripped with 2" per hour upslope for the past 2-3 hours. Trying not to be a weenie but my gut thinks this stays where it is or ticks NW closer to the primary low near the Great Lakes. Plenty of times this season I've given up hope for up here with a strong block but I think this one may have some tickles available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hmm, the archived BOX PNS from 1/18/10 only had 4.3" at ORH. Bad measurement? I was actually out of town for that event, but remember returning to about 2-3" of hard packed sleet here. Oh well, I stand corrected. ALY and BOX PNS statements were pretty paltry from that event across SNE. I had about 7" in that one...ORH airport actually mixed with sleet for a time in that while I didn't 3 miles to the north. I do think the measurement was kind of low though. Don't forget another impulse rode through the next day and dumped another 2-3"...that was probably a separate system though. I sort of lumped the two together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hmm, the archived BOX PNS from 1/18/10 only had 4.3" at ORH. Bad measurement? I was actually out of town for that event, but remember returning to about 2-3" of hard packed sleet here. Oh well, I stand corrected. ALY and BOX PNS statements were pretty paltry from that event across SNE. I only had 5" from that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well the dead zone was filled up nicely by a 2.5 hour chem exam On to 00z. Hopefully we get another run like the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I had about 7" in that one...ORH airport actually mixed with sleet for a time in that while I didn't 3 miles to the north. I do think the measurement was kind of low though. Don't forget another impulse rode through the next day and dumped another 2-3"...that was probably a separate system though. I sort of lumped the two together I had 6.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I had 6.7". My daughter barfed about 5 miles N of you yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I had about 7" in that one...ORH airport actually mixed with sleet for a time in that while I didn't 3 miles to the north. I do think the measurement was kind of low though. Don't forget another impulse rode through the next day and dumped another 2-3"...that was probably a separate system though. I sort of lumped the two together 8.8" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My daughter barfed about 5 miles N of you yesterday lol I saw that in the other thread. Sounds like it was a fun day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The point of a 6 / 18z run of a global model is simply to use up spare compute cycles while we wait for the next round of upper air reports. In practice it just provides another full-resolution ensemble member as the physics are being dominated by very similar initial conditions. Considering the scales of typical background error covariances in the data assimilation system, there is very little novel information on a synoptic scale. (Using the words "data assimilation" is where we queue the ECMWF vs NCEP discussion.)AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 18Z GFS is fantastic for this area. I'm not sure what the ENY peoplewere worrying about. Maybe ALB itself taints briefly, but mainly snow. The chances of the 18z GFS verifying when everything else points colder is very very slim. Again..this is the model that gave me 6-12 inches of snow this past weekend from 18 hours out. I think I'm ok lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Srefs admittedly it of their useful range has a ton of snow already by 87 hours.....1+ qpf and cold and not even the ht of the storm by the runs end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 AMOUT That doesn't mean anything. To not look at an off hour run is bad judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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