HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 A north of the pike snowstorm will provide epic meltdowns in more ways than just the effect that would have on the local snowpack. I stillthink you two would get a good event out of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It can go further. There's still room. Not saying it will but there isn't much to stop it from tucking in more before it makes the eventual turn east Please explain how..with the storng block to the north. that's all we are asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I stillthink you two would get a good event out of this... Thanks man. Seems like a few folks don't..Still several options out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Good solid posters like Coventry1971 must be embarrassed that their community is represented by CTBlizz. 1971 always tries to keep things real. What about me? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What about me? lol Whoosh..right over your head lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This can go either way at this point...saying it can't tick further north is silly. There's room, just not a lot of it. But a further tick north can mean all the difference between 16" of snow and a lot of cold rain maybe changing to 3-5" at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Please explain how..with the storng block to the north. that's all we are asking Seasonably strong, sure, but it's not off the charts a la Sandy. Let's not overstate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This can go either way at this point...saying it can't tick further north is silly. There's room, just not a lot of it. But a further tick north can mean all the difference between 16" of snow and a lot of cold rain maybe changing to 3-5" at the end. i've asked Phil several times and instead of answering me he's trolled ..so I'll ask you...how can it come north with the block where it is and drive a 34 degree rainstorm to the southern burbs of ORH? When i look at the Euro..I see a block and a high in a position to keep it from moving north. What am i not seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Matty N's early map/vision... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Seasonably strong, sure, but it's not off the charts a la Sandy. Let's not overstate it. Yeah this block will put the squeeze play on the storm's latitude advance, but its not like its a 2010 block. IT will keep the storm from running into ALB and MPV, but it doesn't mean this can't go over the Cape versus ACK or the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Good solid posters like Coventry1971 must be embarrassed that their community is represented by CTBlizz. 1971 always tries to keep things real. CTBlizz is cool he is like the Lloyd Lindsay of weather fanatics, hellooooooooooooooooo extreme weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That when the Euro goes north at 00z that you would be texting me nonstop at 1:00am Ok, here it goes. It does have an extent to go north. That block is why the low kicks out east when it gets north of 40N. So you are correct, it does have a limit. However, there has been a trend to dig the energy deeper over the front range of the Rockies and thus have the s/w come in more amplified. You can see this if you have the ability to look at the 06z GFS and 18z GFS. You can also see this on the euro when comparing hr 72 on the 12z run vs hr 84 on the 00z. This in turn pumps up heights over the East Coast and voila....there is a low that moves closer. My point is that while there is an extent to the north trend, it may have one more left, I really don't know. On the other hand, I've seen models amp up at this stage, only to back off a bit in the final 48hrs. I don't quite know if this will happen...but just saying. There are a lot of moving parts that argue both for a track near the BM and a track near Cape Cod. Like I said..I wouldn't be shocked if 00z came in a bit less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It can go further. There's still room. Not saying it will but there isn't much to stop it from tucking in more before it makes the eventual turn east Please explain how..with the storng block to the north. that's all we are asking Well the block is what forces the eastward turn. but early on it's the timing and spacing of the energy coming out of the southern plains that we care about. that still has room to come N and W some before the whole thing rotates east. even on the euro the 7h low closes off awfully far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 i've asked Phil several times and instead of answering me he's trolled ..so I'll ask you...how can it come north with the block where it is and drive a 34 degree rainstorm to the southern burbs of ORH? When i look at the Euro..I see a block and a high in a position to keep it from moving north. What am i not seeing? The block isn't the only factor working...its just one of the main ones. We have some W ATL ridging in place and the storm itself in the GL and our second s/w all have a say. We don't have a pure arctic airmass in place as the storm approaches either. There's more than just saying the block will keep us all snow. It might, but to simply throw out other scenarios is foolish. We can say this won't cut to ALB, I'm confident of that. It won't cut over ORH either. Could it cut over CHH? ACK? Sure it can. Will it? Not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Will, Scott...worth chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Will, Scott...worth chasing? Depends where and what you view as chase worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Will, Scott...worth chasing? A little fast moving for the mega totals...depends what you are looking for. 12"+ in the sweet zone? That is almost a lock. 18"+? Eh...a little more precarious. There will probably be another shot or three in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Literally 3+ days left so much can happen. CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Depends where and what you view as chase worthy. My snowfall total this year is 1.5" dude. Where is not a factor. I need to see snow. A good bit of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ok, here it goes. It does have an extent to go north. That block is why the low kicks out east when it gets north of 40N. So you are correct, it does have a limit. However, there has been a trend to dig the energy deeper over the front range of the Rockies and thus have the s/w come in more amplified. You can see this if you have the ability to look at the 06z GFS and 18z GFS. You can also see this on the euro when comparing hr 72 on the 12z run vs hr 84 on the 00z. This in turn pumps up heights over the East Coast and voila....there is a low that moves closer. My point is that while there is an extent to the north trend, it may have one more left, I really don't know. On the other hand, I've seen models amp up at this stage, only to back off a bit in the final 48hrs. I don't quite know if this will happen...but just saying. There are a lot of moving parts that argue both for a track near the BM and a track near Cape Cod. Like I said..I wouldn't be shocked if 00z came in a bit less amped. Well the block is what forces the eastward turn. but early on it's the timing and spacing of the energy coming out of the southern plains that we care about. that still has room to come N and W some before the whole thing rotates east. even on the euro the 7h low closes off awfully far north. The block isn't the only factor working...its just one of the main ones. We have some W ATL ridging in place and the storm itself in the GL and our second s/w all have a say. We don't have a pure arctic airmass in place as the storm approaches either. There's more than just saying the block will keep us all snow. It might, but to simply throw out other scenarios is foolish. We can say this won't cut to ALB, I'm confident of that. It won't cut over ORH either. Could it cut over CHH? ACK? Sure it can. Will it? Not sure yet. Thank you. and fair enough. What i garner from these well thought out posts(not GFS based garbage) is there several options are on the table and there is room for a tickle north or south. is there any chance the block can trend a bit stronger and confluence a bit stronger as we move thru the next 2 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 A little fast moving for the mega totals...depends what you are looking for. 12"+ in the sweet zone? That is almost a lock. 18"+? Eh...a little more precarious. There will probably be another shot or three in early March. Depends where and what you view as chase worthy. hmm, to chase I think I'm going to need at least 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 My snowfall total this year is 1.5" dude. Where is not a factor. I need to see snow. A good bit of it. I would say north of ORH into SW NH may be a good start. Hopefully we'll have a little clarity tomorrow. I do think the next 2-3 weeks could be fun up here. I also would not rule out DC given this block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 hmm, to chase I think I'm going to need at least 18 That might be tough right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thank you. and fair enough. What i garner from these well thought out posts(not GFS based garbage) is there several options are on the table and there is room for a tickle north or south. is there any chance the block can trend a bit stronger and confluence a bit stronger as we move thru the next 2 days? Well, JMHO..but I think we need to see how that s/w trends. I suppose the blocking could tickle stronger...but I think the bigger question is how the s/'w entering the south gets pulled north, as well as how strong it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That might be tough right now. Some jackpot spot will probaly see close to or better than 18, but when chasing, you want a nice swath of 18"+ since you want to be able to park yourself in a spot about 12-24 hours out once the final model oscillations are in...predicting an isolated 18" location is almost impossible. Not this one has enough punch to produce a large swath of it....the 12z Euro did, lol...but not ready to quite hit that yet. There will def be some more chances I think after this one to chase. Potentially larger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Kev, it's not that we are hugging the GFS, it's just showing a continued trend from 12z and it's not like a spurious solution that came out of nowhere. We totally understand it may be too amped up, but to hug it or throw it out, is silly. It's just another piece of the pie..it does not sway my thoughts at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thank you. and fair enough. What i garner from these well thought out posts(not GFS based garbage) is there several options are on the table and there is room for a tickle north or south. is there any chance the block can trend a bit stronger and confluence a bit stronger as we move thru the next 2 days? Well, JMHO..but I think we need to see how that s/w trends. I suppose the blocking could tickle stronger...but I think the bigger question is how the s/'w entering the south gets pulled north, as well as how strong it will be. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Some jackpot spot will probaly see close to or better than 18, but when chasing, you want a nice swath of 18"+ since you want to be able to park yourself in a spot about 12-24 hours out once the final model oscillations are in. Not this one has enough punch to produce a large swath of it....the 12z Euro did, lol...but not ready to quite hit that yet. There will def be some more chances I think after this one to chase. Potentially larger storms. I hope some of those juicy earlier solutions come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well, JMHO..but I think we need to see how that s/w trends. I suppose the blocking could tickle stronger...but I think the bigger question is how the s/'w entering the south gets pulled north, as well as how strong it will be. My reasoning is we are late in the season with cold waters relatively speaking..we do have a high(though not necc. in the ideal position), and a storm that is dynamic,, with crashing heights even to the coast...and a block. Now if we didn't have a block or if any of those other tangibles we missing..then there's no doubt we'd see rain into the deep interior. But we do have all the necc pieces in place to keep this a mainly colder ptype scenario ..Again..maybe they aren't ideal...but they are there in one degree or another. i just have a hard time buying the GFS scenario of driving all that rain almost to ORH given what we have in place preceding the storm. maybe I'm crazy..but that's how I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Literally 3+ days left so much can happen. CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH. As sad as it may be for yours truly and some others, truer words have not been spoken. I wish it were Friday's 12z run coming up now instead of the Thursday's 00z. But, I'll enjoy it while it lasts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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