HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 You know the posting is getting tiresome when Hubbdave starts taking exception with people lolWait, what?I wasn't taking exception, lol. In my own weenie way I was trying to help... I think I did ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 SO IN A NUTSHELL...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH HEAVY QPF /SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH HIGH PWAT STREAM/. HOWEVER HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON PTYPE/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL/RAIN-SNOW LINE ALONG WITH STRENGTH AND DURATION OF WINDS PENDING STORM TRACK. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN ALL SNOW HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+ FT OF SNOWFALL. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR POWER OUTAGES IF HEAVY WET SNOW COINCIDES WITH AREA OF STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH IF THIS NORTHWARD TREND CONTINUES IN LATER MODEL RUNS THE RISK AREA FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WOULD PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL- NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. There's a scooter flag if ever there was one. So far, I think this setup has a better likelihood to produce good snows for the west slope of the Berkshires, Taconics, and E NY than the blizzard ever did. There's still a chance that something could go wrong, but my overall confidence is higher for a good interior hit than it was for that storm. Why anyone is issuing a snowfall map at this juncture is utterly preposterous in my mind. Besides, that map is aimed at viewers in the Boston DMA, not ours. 100% agree on that, Mitch. Even here in western Franklin we were on the edge of a skunking (relatively speaking). Matt Noyes' defintiion notwithstanding, this one appears to align with the "classic SNE snowbelt" or whatever silly name he used for CT and RI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GEFS mean is pretty amped. Looking good up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Oh ok. Lol. I thought you were being sarcastic. The 18z GFS and ens mean is less entertaining for a good chunk of SNE with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'm beginning to get sucked in a little bit on this one. I might even stay up for the GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Oh ok. Lol. I thought you were being sarcastic. The 18z GFS and ens mean is less entertaining for a good chunk of SNE with this system idk...this run looks entertaining at 1kft in NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 idk...this run looks entertaining at 1kft in NE CT. As we watch ct blizz's snowpack vanish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The GFS has a lousy CCB because the 700mb low develops late, slowly, and north. C and NNE still do well, but southern areas obviously struggle. That could change in future runs with stronger low development, or it could keep trending towards a frontside thump focusing on ski country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 As we watch ct blizz's snowpack vanish?Meltdowns in more ways than one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Meltdowns in more ways than one? I'll be happy if he rains. I don't have a snowpack fetish like he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looking good up there.Yeah...I had a feeling on this one for days. Even a tickle or a frolic south and I still would manage warning criteria. Hopefully you guys get some decent snows from this...I'm fine with a midlevel deformation band. Maybe this is our CNE special of the winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yeah...I had a feeling on this one for days. Even a tickle or a frolic south and I still would manage warning criteria. Hopefully you guys get some decent snows from this...I'm fine with a midlevel deformation band. Maybe this is our CNE special of the winter though. Nah, you're not done. Next week is interesting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I feel pretty good for this area. The clustering has been pretty strong for 3 runs now. It might end up a tick north like the 18z GFS but even still, its a big hit in the interior N of the pike. But I also would urge people not to obsess over one run. We saw people do this in the blizzard and its somewhat silly to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 There's a scooter flag if ever there was one. 100% agree on that, Mitch. Even here in western Franklin we were on the edge of a skunking (relatively speaking). Matt Noyes' defintiion notwithstanding, this one appears to align with the "classic SNE snowbelt" or whatever silly name he used for CT and RI.. Ideally, I'd like to see a more dynamic storm system in order for someone to have a shot at getting some big totals, but this is still a nice juicy, QPF producer. A more dynamic storm would yield a snowier solution south of the Pike. Hopefully it'll be a little colder for me than the MLK 2010 storm as it was a sleetfest here on the west slope. East slope got clobbered though if I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWeiner_Hater Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I just had to check into the weinie board after seeing where the trend is heading with this one. The panic of rain starting in Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I feel pretty good for this area. The clustering has been pretty strong for 3 runs now. It might end up a tick north like the 18z GFS but even still, its a big hit in the interior N of the pike. But I also would urge people not to obsess over one run. We saw people do this in the blizzard and its somewhat silly to do so. That's what I am hoping! 25 mile difference between you and I could mean a lot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Ideally, I'd like to see a more dynamic storm system in order for someone to have a shot at getting some big totals, but this is still a nice juicy, QPF producer. A more dynamic storm would yield a snowier solution south of the Pike. Hopefully it'll be a little colder for me than the MLK 2010 storm as it was a sleetfest here on the west slope. East slope got clobbered though if I recall. This will probably juicier than MLK 2010 was...there was a tight gradient right near the pike on that one. Megan was up visiting from NJ at the time and when she drove back she said the snow diappeared rapidly as soon as she hit 84 south from the pike. It was like 10" near me and just north and maybe 3-5" in Sturbridge. The qpf should should be more expansive to the north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Ideally, I'd like to see a more dynamic storm system in order for someone to have a shot at getting some big totals, but this is still a nice juicy, QPF producer. A more dynamic storm would yield a snowier solution south of the Pike. Hopefully it'll be a little colder for me than the MLK 2010 storm as it was a sleetfest here on the west slope. East slope got clobbered though if I recall. Not really, that was like 2" at my house down low but only about 5" up in Shelburne/Colrain. I recall my disappointment when i thought I was going to have a big ski day out in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Please don't start the quarterly "let's define northern/central/southern NE" debate. Everyone's got a general sense, and more importantly, the maps are showing the points of debate about p-type, amounts. LOL, he asked and he got a couple of opinions. At least we had consensus, mahk & I. You're CNE too, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 idk about clustering wrt track, seems each 6-12 hour run is north of the next creating a cluster that is expanding north and nearing the end of it's usefulness wrt to snowfall. i gotta step away at this point, still on vaca (1 more day) and there are about 6 more euro runs worth watching for this thing. hopefully when i tune in tomm afternoon the euro has put the kibbosh on the N trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWeiner_Hater Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Maine gets crushed once again...starting to see a pattern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I hope I'm wrong, but this does not seem to be a blip... every piece of guidance (Euro, GGEM, GFS, NAM) has trended north / warmer today. Slow-to-die ULL over Michigan and position of this HP just not ideal as it looks like at this time. Still 84 hrs to go and we know how horrible guidance can be... for Boston folks, hoping the trend stops / reverses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I just had to check into the weinie board after seeing where the trend is heading with this one. The panic of rain starting in Southern New England. How much are you expecting in your cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charleskoz Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 2-4" for ALB, GFL, and KDDH? Not again! That's how it is for us this year (and most years, actually). If a storm is looking to track over us, it goes further north and we get slop. But if a storm is south of us, it always stays south of us so we get 2" of snow. A storm that's south of us riding north so we get the good snow? Never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 SO IN A NUTSHELL...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH HEAVY QPF /SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH HIGH PWAT STREAM/. HOWEVER HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON PTYPE/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL/RAIN-SNOW LINE ALONG WITH STRENGTH AND DURATION OF WINDS PENDING STORM TRACK. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN ALL SNOW HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+ FT OF SNOWFALL. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR POWER OUTAGES IF HEAVY WET SNOW COINCIDES WITH AREA OF STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH IF THIS NORTHWARD TREND CONTINUES IN LATER MODEL RUNS THE RISK AREA FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WOULD PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL- NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. The bold part of that (above) was typed in real quick by Dendrite when the guy had to run to the bathroom. He came back and published and forgot to proof it one last time - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Maine gets crushed once again...starting to see a pattern here. That is snows more in Maine than Connecticut ? nice catch - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWeiner_Hater Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I hope I'm wrong, but this does not seem to be a blip... every piece of guidance (Euro, GGEM, GFS, NAM) has trended north / warmer today. Slow-to-die ULL over Michigan and position of this HP just not ideal as it looks like at this time. Still 84 hrs to go and we know how horrible guidance can be... for Boston folks, hoping the trend stops / reverses. Still a mile out and I'm even worried that it keeps trending and we'll even see rain here in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWeiner_Hater Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That is snows more in Maine than Connecticut ? nice catch - Depends...A couple years ago (2010) the pattern was all south and Maine got notta while NYC broke an all-time record for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Depends...A couple years ago (2010) the pattern was all south and Maine got notta while NYC broke an all-time record for the month. Er, that's nada, not notta... Spanish for nothing, which I hope I dont get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWeiner_Hater Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Er, that's nada, not notta... Spanish for nothing, which I hope I dont get. Sorry, I was the one that took French in Highschool...and that has come in real handy for me. Kinda like Diff EQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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