Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I was really banking on having the low take that sharp right turn at the benchmark, without that many in southern new england will be toast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I was really banking on having the low take that sharp right turn at the benchmark, without that many in southern new england will be toast.. Save a horse ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Why are you guys even looking at an 18z run 4 days out? Are you more meaning the 18z component, because that has been discussed to death. It is a piece of guidance. Give it as much or as little merit as you wish. A little stronger high to the north would alay the fears of many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The first step to recovery is admitting that you have a problem. The myth about 18z runs has been debunked many times. This isn't the 1990s anymore, things have evolved. If you want to argue that the problems lie with the NCEP models themselves, it's a whole other ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 18z Gfs is hideous Why are you guys even looking at an 18z run 4 days out? Same reason I look at every other model that's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 If only that were true. It isn't reality though. The vast majority of the public is "stupid" when it comes to this stuff. Amazingly those same stupid people are fast becoming educated, when old ladies ask me about the Euro and 850 temps.... The problem always was and is, the media thinking we are mostly idiots. That where I give TWC credit, they broke that mold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I can handle it. But let's keep it from continuing. Verbatim, that's a very nice run for us. Due to the block forming over Quebec, I have a hard time envisioning this thing trending much farther north, but still feel areas south of 42° N stand a legitimate shot at being skunked due to taint. I could see a significant gradient setting up just south of the Pike the way this is currently being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 i don't mind 18z gfs that bad. i stay below 0c 850 and get a nice qpf dump and lookin at ptype maps i'm riding the line just n of boston (mostly snow) hopefully the euro op goes toward ensembles tonite, the n trend is somewhat disturbing is the 18z gfs worse than the 12z (wrt model scores?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The myth about 18z runs has been debunked many times. This isn't the 1990s anymore, things have evolved. If you want to argue that the problems lie with the NCEP models themselves, it's a whole other ballgame. Well I do not know about that though, as many have noticed this year the 18Z is always the weeniest most amped up run of the entire suite GFS wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Verbatim, that's a very nice run for us. Due to the block forming over Quebec, I have a hard time envisioning this thing trending much farther north, but still feel areas south of 42° N stand a legitimate shot at being skunked due to taint. I could see a significant gradient setting up just south of the Pike the way this is currently being modeled. Can someone summarize the current possibilities by region - "it's toasty" doesn't really mean much. Where do we expect snow, where do we expect rain based on the latest runs? It's hard to follow otherwise, every discussion is imby... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Verbatim, that's a very nice run for us. Due to the block forming over Quebec, I have a hard time envisioning this thing trending much farther north, but still feel areas south of 42° N stand a legitimate shot at being skunked due to taint. I could see a significant gradient setting up just south of the Pike the way this is currently being modeled. Can someone summarize the current possibilities by region - "it's toasty" doesn't really mean much. Where do we expect snow, where do we expect rain based on the latest runs? It's hard to follow otherwise, every discussion is imby... Thanks! rain except mt tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 channel 7 already has accum map http://www1.whdh.com/images/weather/producer_uploads/special-560x389.jpg?02201630 LOCK it up 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Well I do not know about that though, as many have noticed this year the 18Z is always the weeniest most amped up run of the entire suite GFS wise. I think that is more anecdotal than anything. a few runs don't really equate to a good enough sample size to surmise that. We've have a lot of setups that were close to being non events or blizzards so it's easy to see how one run can be bullish and the next one back off. Who knows, 00z might actually back off some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Can someone summarize the current possibilities by region - "it's toasty" doesn't really mean much. Where do we expect snow, where do we expect rain based on the latest runs? It's hard to follow otherwise, every discussion is imby... Thanks! First look here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Look around at some models (try the 18Z GFS just for fun...) Areas south and nearer the coast will probably see some "non frozen precipitation". Where you are is close... probably get some rain/sleet on that model, then flip to heavy wet snow Other guidance has been colder, but maybe it moves a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Amazingly those same stupid people are fast becoming educated, when old ladies ask me about the Euro and 850 temps.... The problem always was and is, the media thinking we are mostly idiots. That where I give TWC credit, they broke that mold. TWC may have broken the mold, but they're mostly off the rails now and running with the hype machine. I love trying to educate in my AFDs when I can. Truth is most people don't want that, they call and complain that they're too scientific. There will always be a subset of the public that just gets it more than the rest, but the vast majority still need hand holding to get through it. The only reason the public is all of a sudden aware of the European model is because that's the excuse TV stations (TWC included) are using for tossing up insane snowfall amounts on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 rain except mt tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Can someone summarize the current possibilities by region - "it's toasty" doesn't really mean much. Where do we expect snow, where do we expect rain based on the latest runs? It's hard to follow otherwise, every discussion is imby... Thanks! It's nearly impossible to pinpoint specifics like a rain/snow line 3-3.5 days out or overall snowfall accumulations for that matter. The general trend today has been for the storm track to trend a little toward the north, which implies a greater chance of rain for the coastal plain of E MA, RI, and much of CT as warmer air would get pulled in on east winds. At this point in time, it's best to simply pay attention to model trends and not make specific forecasts for snowfall in one's backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 SO IN A NUTSHELL...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORMTHIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH HEAVY QPF /SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH HIGH PWATSTREAM/. HOWEVER HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON PTYPE/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/AXIS OFHEAVY SNOWFALL/RAIN-SNOW LINE ALONG WITH STRENGTH AND DURATION OFWINDS PENDING STORM TRACK. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN ALL SNOW HAVE THEPOTENTIAL FOR 1+ FT OF SNOWFALL. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR POWEROUTAGES IF HEAVY WET SNOW COINCIDES WITH AREA OF STRONG WINDS.ALTHOUGH IF THIS NORTHWARD TREND CONTINUES IN LATER MODEL RUNS THERISK AREA FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WOULD PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL-NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think that is more anecdotal than anything. a few runs don't really equate to a good enough sample size to surmise that. We've have a lot of setups that were close to being non events or blizzards so it's easy to see how one run can be bullish and the next one back off. Who knows, 00z might actually back off some. maybe, but seems that way this year. I will take a Euro GFS compromise and run at this point. Great to have ski areas getting hit too. Balls to the wall ski season is here for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Can someone summarize the current possibilities by region - "it's toasty" doesn't really mean much. Where do we expect snow, where do we expect rain based on the latest runs? It's hard to follow otherwise, every discussion is imby... Thanks! First look here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Look around at some models (try the 18Z GFS just for fun...) Areas south and nearer the coast will probably see some "non frozen precipitation". Where you are is close... probably get some rain/sleet on that model, then flip to heavy wet snow Other guidance has been colder, but maybe it moves a bit. You know the posting is getting tiresome when Hubbdave starts taking exception with people lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 channel 7 already has accum map http://www1.whdh.com/images/weather/producer_uploads/special-560x389.jpg?02201630 LOCK it up 8-12 LOL-4-8 down to the CT shoreline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 SO IN A NUTSHELL...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH HEAVY QPF /SRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH HIGH PWAT STREAM/. HOWEVER HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON PTYPE/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL/RAIN-SNOW LINE ALONG WITH STRENGTH AND DURATION OF WINDS PENDING STORM TRACK. LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN ALL SNOW HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+ FT OF SNOWFALL. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR POWER OUTAGES IF HEAVY WET SNOW COINCIDES WITH AREA OF STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH IF THIS NORTHWARD TREND CONTINUES IN LATER MODEL RUNS THE RISK AREA FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WOULD PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL- NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. this is well written IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 2-4" for ALB, GFL, and KDDH? Not again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Amazingly those same stupid people are fast becoming educated, "education is a system of imposed ignorance" Like the trends, hopefully the ultimate track comes north into the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Why are you guys even looking at an 18z run 4 days out? You are a meteorologist. Why wouldn't you look at an 18Z model run? Doesn't mean you swallow it whole, but it is data and I would assume you would want to see it. As for me, I just wait to be told when I should get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 2-4" for ALB, GFL, and KDDH? Not again! So far, I think this setup has a better likelihood to produce good snows for the west slope of the Berkshires, Taconics, and E NY than the blizzard ever did. There's still a chance that something could go wrong, but my overall confidence is higher for a good interior hit than it was for that storm. Why anyone is issuing a snowfall map at this juncture is utterly preposterous in my mind. Besides, that map is aimed at viewers in the Boston DMA, not ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 channel 7 already has accum map http://www1.whdh.com/images/weather/producer_uploads/special-560x389.jpg?02201630 LOCK it up 8-12 Would take that map and RUN, if I see 2-4" down here it's going to be a big suprise to me. The bad news is no snow for here, the good news is that both Lake Placid and Hunter(along with the rest of ski country) are going to get a good hit from this, very good chance for 6"+ and decent chance for 12"+ in both of those locations. Might end up at Hunter for the weekend with friends who have a condo there, otherwise it's off to Lake Placid, this should be a sweet ski weekend... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 You are a meteorologist. Why wouldn't you look at an 18Z model run? Doesn't mean you swallow it whole, but it is data and I would assume you would want to see it. As for me, I just wait to be told when I should get excited. Mountain Man is my favorite character on duck Dynasty now he is here it is getting good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 You are a meteorologist. Why wouldn't you look at an 18Z model run? Doesn't mean you swallow it whole, but it is data and I would assume you would want to see it. As for me, I just wait to be told when I should get excited. I mean the 18z runs aren't meant to be taken seriously 4 days out, but it can establish or diminish confidence too. The pattern does argue for a tick north...at least I can buy it to a point anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GEFS mean is pretty amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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