weatherMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 What in the hell even is that channel 7 map...4-8 in the Berks and 12" for the sea coast of NH? Can I make a map for them instead?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The weenie-ism on saying models show stuff they don't or the IMBY obsession with the R/S line which really doesn't matter that much since it goes back to heavy snow quickly. We are 84 hours out..stuff is going to oscillate. Lets not clutter up the threads. We've already 5 posted people today. Well after the way I was treated over the weekend and that nonsense. I should hope I'd get some fair treatment.I'm not IMBY poster. I include all areas in the discussion. Noone should be left out. We have a possible historic snowy period coming up over the next few weeks and I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 i know. it's too bad. i got an email from somebody saying that one of the local radio statios *HERE* was saying a foot. never mind that nothing supports that right now, but why bother on Wednesday?? Ridiculous. Makes me want to get a job outside of forecasting as much as I enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I saw numerous weather maps from different stations that were being photo shopped with extreme accumulations and being posted on FB before the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Well that's the easy way out. Don't make a call yourself, but chuck what the GFS and Euro show to pump up ratings. If it busts, well you can't trust those models. If it hits, well you heard it here first. It gets to me because people take those numbers and run. Then when it doesn't work out, you hear "Well they said a foot the other day...they blew that one.." Perhaps if you want to play devil's advocate...it shows the potential amounts and impact for the viewing area so people can plan accordingly...but the general public doesn't always understand how fluid these situations can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Based on the system taking more of an easterly than northerly trajectory should bring smiles to everyone as wouldn't that keep the dry slot off shore? That should be a win for everyone methinks. Maybe half a smile, as that would keep the +SN well south of my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I saw numerous weather maps from different stations that were being photo shopped with extreme accumulations and being posted on FB before the blizzard lol...social media = completing the dumbing of society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 What's with the TV guys putting out snow maps already? Little early right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackymann Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 IMHO, there is absolutely nothing wrong with making a prediction at ANY point, as long as you make it clear that it is subject to change. I can't stand meteorologists who simply refuse to make any predictions at all until like 12 hours before the storm starts. What good is that? Give me your best guess with what you have now, and do your best to communicate the confidence you have in that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It gets to me because people take those numbers and run. Then when it doesn't work out, you hear "Well they said a foot the other day...they blew that one.." Perhaps if you want to play devil's advocate...it shows the potential amounts and impact for the viewing area so people can plan accordingly...but the general public doesn't always understand how fluid these situations can be. That's where we should probably move towards the probabilistic amounts, a la the graphs Ryan is trying on here. Instead of chucking 12+ on a map, tell people you have a 1 in 4 shot of a foot. Not out of the question, but not likely either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Ridiculous. Makes me want to get a job outside of forecasting as much as I enjoy it. The big market TV mets are beholden to their producers. I remeber talking to a Boston met (who I'll keep nameless) in the late 90's and he said there was a collective sigh among the mets when all the stations went to 5-7 day forecasts. He called them the "chamber of commerce forecasts". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It gets to me because people take those numbers and run. Then when it doesn't work out, you hear "Well they said a foot the other day...they blew that one.." Perhaps if you want to play devil's advocate...it shows the potential amounts and impact for the viewing area so people can plan accordingly...but the general public doesn't always understand how fluid these situations can be. Yeah but its a lose, lose. People don't understand the science and how it works to begin with. I heard complaining about people upping totals from 18" to 30" in the Blizz...I mean...who forecasts 30" 3 days out? Another problem is the public doesn't usually measure snow...so honestly, even when we get a foot I've heard some people say "we got 18" easily" and later someone say "we got 7 and they said a foot" It's just a lose, lose, lose scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 IMHO, there is absolutely nothing wrong with making a prediction at ANY point, as long as you make it clear that it is subject to change. I can't stand meteorologists who simply refuse to make any predictions at all until like 12 hours before the storm starts. What good is that? Give me your best guess with what you have now, and do your best to communicate the confidence you have in that forecast. You don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 IMHO, there is absolutely nothing wrong with making a prediction at ANY point, as long as you make it clear that it is subject to change. I can't stand meteorologists who simply refuse to make any predictions at all until like 12 hours before the storm starts. What good is that? Give me your best guess with what you have now, and do your best to communicate the confidence you have in that forecast. dude, if you say 8-12" then say 25X after that that it is subject to change 95% of the public will run around and say "WE ARE GOING TO GET A FOOT OF SNOW". Then through the telephone game all of a sudden that is 16-20". You go from cautiously throwing out 8-12" to mass panic. It is because people are stupid, not because mets are afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yikes, everyone is discussing snow, but thats a ton of water for the south coast with deep snow pack and another rainer on its heels. Flooding concerns its almost time to hoist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 lol...social media = completing the dumbing of society. lol, Your just able to get the bullsh it faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 IMHO, there is absolutely nothing wrong with making a prediction at ANY point, as long as you make it clear that it is subject to change. I can't stand meteorologists who simply refuse to make any predictions at all until like 12 hours before the storm starts. What good is that? Give me your best guess with what you have now, and do your best to communicate the confidence you have in that forecast. I know that's what you want, but the fact is that people always (ALWAYS) latch onto the highest amounts regardless of the uncertainty or timing of that forecast. We got lucky the blizzard was so well behaved. Had that deviated in the final 24 hours, the massive 24+, blizzard of '78 redux calls would have looked silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 dude, if you say 8-12" then say 25X after that that it is subject to change 95% of the public will run around and say "WE ARE GOING TO GET A FOOT OF SNOW". Then through the telephone game all of a sudden that is 16-20". You go from cautiously throwing out 8-12" to mass panic. It is because people are stupid, not because mets are afraid. THIS x1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 IMHO, there is absolutely nothing wrong with making a prediction at ANY point, as long as you make it clear that it is subject to change. I can't stand meteorologists who simply refuse to make any predictions at all until like 12 hours before the storm starts. What good is that? Give me your best guess with what you have now, and do your best to communicate the confidence you have in that forecast.Violently agree. The public wants amounts and they want them ASAP. You've got to lay out numbers so folks know what the possibitues are and that has to be done early and hyped if need be. Like it or not that is the world we currently live in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yeah but its a lose, lose. People don't understand the science and how it works to begin with. I heard complaining about people upping totals from 18" to 30" in the Blizz...I mean...who forecasts 30" 3 days out? Another problem is the public doesn't usually measure snow...so honestly, even when we get a foot I've heard some people say "we got 18" easily" and later someone say "we got 7" and they said a foot" It's just a lose, lose, lose scenario. But if you take a probalistic approach and state significant accumulations are possible, you are doing it in a responsible way of driving home the potential impact, without putting out numbers that likely will change. It's not like this is Friday night. You could say a widespread 6"+deal with the potential for over a foot in spots, especially the interior....that's plenty of material for people to comprehend. It's JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Violently agree. The public wants amounts and they want them ASAP. You've got to lay out numbers so folks know what the possibitues are and that had robe done early and hyped if need be. Like it or not that is the world we currently live in Please stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 But if you take a probalistic approach and state significant accumulations are possible, you are doing it in a responsible way of driving home the potential impact, without putting out numbers that likely will change. It's not like this is Friday night. You could say a widespread 6"+deal with the potential for over a foot in spots, especially the interior....that's plenty of material for people to comprehend. It's JMHO. Oh yeah, I totally agree. I could see even not mentioning amounts, because saying a 1/4 chance of a foot will automatically register as "12+ likely." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackymann Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It gets to me because people take those numbers and run. Then when it doesn't work out, you hear "Well they said a foot the other day...they blew that one.." Perhaps if you want to play devil's advocate...it shows the potential amounts and impact for the viewing area so people can plan accordingly...but the general public doesn't always understand how fluid these situations can be. Why coddle the stupid people?? Let them complain about the "blown" forecast. Who cares? I want all of the info that the meteorologist currently has to be boiled down into a real forecast. That's what it is - a forecast. Anybody who expects a perfect forecast 3 or 4 days in advance deserves to be disappointed on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 yikes yikes-er Not sure why they would put out amounts this early. I guess their superiors make them? I'd laugh my ass off to wind up with 4" when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Why coddle the stupid people?? Let them complain about the "blown" forecast. Who cares? I want all of the info that the meteorologist currently has to be boiled down into a real forecast. That's what it is - a forecast. Anybody who expects a perfect forecast 3 or 4 days in advance deserves to be disappointed on a regular basis. If only that were true. It isn't reality though. The vast majority of the public is "stupid" when it comes to this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The possibility exists for 6" or more of snow, That will tell you all you need to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It gets to me because people take those numbers and run. Then when it doesn't work out, you hear "Well they said a foot the other day...they blew that one.." Perhaps if you want to play devil's advocate...it shows the potential amounts and impact for the viewing area so people can plan accordingly...but the general public doesn't always understand how fluid these situations can be. Why coddle the stupid people?? Let them complain about the "blown" forecast. Who cares? I want all of the info that the meteorologist currently has to be boiled down into a real forecast. That's what it is - a forecast. Anybody who expects a perfect forecast 3 or 4 days in advance deserves to be disappointed on a regular basis. Because that's about 99% of the viewer/listener/readers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Violently agree. The public wants amounts and they want them ASAP. You've got to lay out numbers so folks know what the possibitues are and that has to be done early and hyped if need be. Like it or not that is the world we currently live in In that case, for a large number of storms you can just go out with a forecast of "0-24" forecast so everyone can be prepared. And, you'll never bust, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackymann Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 But if you take a probalistic approach and state significant accumulations are possible, you are doing it in a responsible way of driving home the potential impact, without putting out numbers that likely will change. It's not like this is Friday night. You could say a widespread 6"+deal with the potential for over a foot in spots, especially the interior....that's plenty of material for people to comprehend. It's JMHO. I would love a probabilistic approach to weather forecasting. I love the maps that people post that show "probabilities of more than x inches of snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Please stop.Stop what? Expressing my opinion like you are doing? Why do you think they issue these maps days in advance? It's not because they are stupid. They are being pressured to get maps out because of ratings because the public wants them. You think Joe Smith wants to hear "well there's a chance of snow Saturday" but we aren't going to issue any thoughts in amounts . What good dies that do? People will tune out and tune in somewhere else. The Nws has now started issuing maps well in advance. It's reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.