Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Its snow to rain or rain/sleet back to snow for N CT and a good chunk of RI with probably still a good 8-10" (maybe even a little more in spots) after it changes back over with maybe a couple inches on the front end before any taint. he just keeps motoring around in his boat...trolling and trolling the waters...just waiting for someone to take his bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 100 hr snowstorm on euro. Dumbbells around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Neither one of those tainted here as an addendum Dec '96 did for a bit. But this one gains a bit more latitude in the mid-level warm nose...no two storms are identical. Throw in a little bit of MLK into the analog mix if you want to be a bit more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 he just keeps motoring around in his boat...trolling and trolling the waters...just waiting for someone to take his bait. It's like one of those rope pull motors that snap and the boat just tools around the water out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMet Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Why is everyone saying "Not much change in anything" when 12 hours ago everyone's talking about a 1-2 foot snowstorm for SNE / Boston and now it's a 1-2 foot snowstorm for the Berkshires and ORH North?? Ya no changes at all. Because those people who were talking accumulations 12 hours ago are loons. Forecasting 12" of snow for Boston at a lead time of 4 days borders on malpractice. We are WAY beyond the realm of a deterministic snowfall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I wish I could lock in a Euro/GFS blend now Alas...still 4 days out. Could end up with the fishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Still trying to decide if I am SNE or CNE... Ultimately I think I am right on the line...no man's land... You're in central in my opinion. SNE doesn't start for me till one gets south of the white pines as dominant and into the oak /hickoryhardwoods. Just mho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 he just keeps motoring around in his boat...trolling and trolling the waters...just waiting for someone to take his bait.Huh? Noone could give us an idea what to expect. I'm glad Will helped us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 LOL at CNE people. AWT. What do you expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It's like one of those rope pull motors that snap and the boat just tools around the water out of control. yep. just spinning around in circles and jumping over its own wake. poor emaciated old man kevin trying to regain composure but keep his line in the water at the same time...hoping he can yank out a 2/9/13 but keeps catching 1/18/10 instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Btw, and this goes for everyone.... looks to me like dynamics will overwhelm - but, if you get 1.5" liq equiv and lose .4 or even .75" in early inning rains, i don't have any sympathy for you. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Because those people who were talking accumulations 12 hours ago are loons. Forecasting 12" of snow for Boston at a lead time of 4 days borders on malpractice. We are WAY beyond the realm of a deterministic snowfall forecast. Pretty funny - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 What do you expect? Regionally, I don't think its any different for any storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Tremendous height falls with this system, you're talking 120 meters in 6 hrs. That's azzhole ripping right there. I'm amazed at the speed of the s/w in question and can't help but think that it may play games with model solutions. You also have to figure out the separation of the ULL over the lakes and the s/w ripping around underneath it. Ridging ahead of this needs to be looked at. NATL low may be deeper and this causes heights to be higher just off the east coast and hence a closer track. It's between 6z and 12z where things go hog wild on the euro. That's likely a plastering for Kev and especially Will and to Ray. Very close for BOS. I'm not a big fan of low pressure tracking near the Cape and lousy antecedent airmass..even in late Feb. Has the look of rain to me unless the low can deepen quicker or pass just SE. Probably flip to snow as it passes my longitude and/or the vvs can rip me a new one. Before 06z the euro is pretty mild near 950 and has a nice latitudinal RA/SN line that hangs up near the MA/CT border. The parent low is the culprit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Btw, and this goes for everyone.... looks to me like dynamics will overwhelm - but, if you get 1.5" liq equiv and lose .4 or even .75" in early inning rains, i don't have any sympathy for you. Just sayin' Especially over eastern areas and across the interior. CT has that inital WAA nose that mucks things up, especially along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Whats the total QPF for us up here in Central NE??1.50" gets between here and Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Tremendous height falls with this system, you're talking 120 meters in 6 hrs. That's azzhole ripping right there. I'm amazed at the speed of the s/w in question and can't help but think that it may play games with model solutions. You also have to figure out the separation of the ULL over the lakes and the s/w ripping around underneath it. Ridging ahead of this needs to be looked at. NATL low may be deeper and this causes heights to be higher just off the east coast and hence a closer track. It's between 6z and 12z where things go hog wild on the euro. That's likely a plastering for Kev and especially Will and to Ray. Very close for BOS. I'm not a big fan of low pressure tracking near the Cape and lousy antecedent airmass..even in late Feb. Has the look of rain to me unless the low can deepen quicker or pass just SE. Probably flip to snow as it passes my longitude and/or the vvs can rip me a new one. Before 06z the euro is pretty mild near 950 and has a nice latitudinal RA/SN line that hangs up near the MA/CT border. The parent low is the culprit there. Made the comment earlier. All plays into how the current ULL moves out. I just don't like that look for coastal areas currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Coastal areas aren't favored with a track so close to Cape Cod, MA. Chances are the coastal plain will be mainly rain until the low passes our location. Then we flip to heavy snows as the low gets out of here quickly. Although with a closed H5 low chances are the exit will be slower then currently modeled and might prolong snowfall for coastal MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Coastal areas aren't favored with a track so close to Cape Cod, MA. Chances are the coastal plain will be mainly rain until the low passes our location. Then we flip to heavy snows as the low gets out of here quickly. Although with a closed H5 low chances are the exit will be slower then currently modeled and might prolong snowfall for coastal MA. Rain to paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Still trying to decide if I am SNE or CNE... Ultimately I think I am right on the line...no man's land... You are in CNE for sure. You are in freakin New Hampshire! You score with the Euro. And so do I....well at least my house scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Coastal areas aren't favored with a track so close to Cape Cod, MA. Chances are the coastal plain will be mainly rain until the low passes our location. Then we flip to heavy snows as the low gets out of here quickly. Although with a closed H5 low chances are the exit will be slower then currently modeled and might prolong snowfall for coastal MA. you just can't help yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Made the comment earlier. All plays into how the current ULL moves out. I just don't like that look for coastal areas currently. If the euro gained less latitude by like 30 miles and took that track, it would be a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 you just can't help yourself. It's helped a lot of people who did not know where Cape Cod was. When you put the "MA" after Cape Cod..it avoids a lot of confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Where is he located? Does anyone know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro weenie snow algorithms probably would make Kev happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It's helped a lot of people who did not know where Cape Cod was. When you put the "MA" after Cape Cod..it avoids a lot of confusion. well the Cod is also important. often when we are discussing the cape in the SNE forums, i think of Ann, Canaveral, Lookout, Fear, Henlopen. I rarely think of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro weenie snow algorithms probably would make Kev happy. yeah looks like about a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 If the euro gained less latitude by like 30 miles and took that track, it would be a lot better. Is there any chance it DOESNT deviate by ~30 miles give or take over the next 3-4 days? Not saying its going north or south, but some deviation, given the time frame, seems more than likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It's helped a lot of people who did not know where Cape Cod was. When you put the "MA" after Cape Cod..it avoids a lot of confusion. Just look at what happened with NH! I'm glad I'll have something to keep my first midnight entertaining tomorrow night. Pretty nice looking consensus at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 well the Cod is also important. often when we are discussing the cape in the SNE forums, i think of Ann, Canaveral, Lookout, Fear, Henlopen. I rarely think of this area. Good Hope, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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