Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Indiv GFS members look similar to the Op. Some really amped up solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Huh - your reading into that wrongly. It's not statement of fault as to one's particular perception on things - it's fundamental. There is "more snow" in a 10:1, 10" result, than a 20:1, 15" result. Ok yeah... so there's still more snow in a 5" glop fest (say 5:1) than there is in 10" of 12:1 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Kevin nobody is weighing the GFS more than it should be. But, to just not look at it would be beyond stupid. We don't have wildly different solutions from the main models at this point anyway, so not even sure what the big fuss is other than Tolland gets rain on GFS...and also gets some rain on the Euro and GGEM. They are all agreeing quite robustly with eachother for a 4 day prog. There's small details that are different but its not like the GFS is tracking the low over BOS while the others are over ACK or the BM. The jackpot fetish is already rearing its head. All of these solutions still give plenty of snow to N CT/RI after we rip a dynamic gap in the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Either way on this storm, one of the best Februarys in SNE makes me totally forget the disaster that was last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Go look at 12/9/05 on Narr. Tainting to the Pike then boom. At any rate great storm coming up. Hopefully this thread gets off its myopic head and we can discuss the entire region.[/quotes]N CT was all snow in that one. There was no taint.A much better analog is the 2 nd storm in the Dec 96 double barreled nor'easter s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Kevin nobody is weighing the GFS more than it should be. But, to just not look at it would be beyond stupid. The bigger issue is that although Kevin is a great kid and is fun to hang around with, he's completely wrong in his assessment of the GFS this winter. His core argument is just not true. It smoked all guidance during the 30 to 40 days prior the blizzard, on enough (few) occasions to accept that there are circulation paradigms that it can perform with superior results. Now may or may not be one of those times. Namely, as I have hammered this in the past, the GFS has a progressive bias, as is also noted by NCEP and their tracking. When the flow is in fact verifying fast, ...logically, there can be some safe assumption that the GFS would perform better during such times. Ding ding ding - that was the case in the month prior to the blizzard. The flow was in fact fast, fast, fast, and the GFS kept telling the other middle range guidance, but the others just kept trying to wind up bombs on their respective D5-7 ranges. The Euro was hugely guilty of phantoms during that time, too. Anyway, now we have kind of split Hadely going on... disparate characterizations about the hemisphere as a whole - at least on our side of the Globe. The flow is entering a tendency for blocking above 45 to 50N latitudes, while it is remaining fast along the kiss points of the subtropical ridges and and westerlies. It may not be totally safe to take this measure, but "intuitively" that's sort of even money on which run will successfully assess matters. But this business about the GFS not being useful this winter is just not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 FWIW/FYI, GGEM changes all of CT over to all rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Ok yeah... so there's still more snow in a 5" glop fest (say 5:1) than there is in 10" of 12:1 snow. If the debate on what is and is not a snowy pattern were scientific - one would have say that 4 storms at 10:1 is a far snowier pattern than 4 storms that dumped 15" at 20:1; the former has more "snow" in the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The bigger issue is that although Kevin is a great kid and is fun to hang around with, he's completely wrong in his assessment of the GFS this winter. His core argument is just not true. It smoked all guidance during the 30 to 40 days prior the blizzard, on enough (few) occasions to accept that there are circulation paradigms that it can perform with superior results. isn't he older than you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Lol they don't. GGEM us all snow and Euro was almost all snow not a rainstorm to the pike C'mon http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013022012/I_nw_g1_EST_2013022012_092.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 isn't he older than you?Lol I'm 40 and I'm almost positive Tip is 48-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 man the ptype talk is wild for 4 days out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 FWIW/FYI, GGEM changes all of CT over to all rain: I normally hate to use those ptype maps as they often obsess with warming the sfc and BL but in this case they are probably decent as the R/S on there follows the mid-level warm nose fairly well before we see a dynamic collapse to the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 An interesting note on the GEFS is that the warmer solutions are all weaker with the low...the solutoons that really bomb the low out all have the mid-level temps collapsed to the southeast...dynamic cooling is definitely the dominant factor on those solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 We have had some pretty big bombs in march and april over the years May 1977 says wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 May 1977 says wtf? lol, Those are more rare then getting blue bombed in march and april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 lol, Those are more rare then getting blue bombed in march and april Your golf clubs will be collecting dust for a little while longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Every model gets taken into account this far out. Euro tainted your ass for a little while. Just about every mid-range model taints CT for a while. It may or may not happen that way. But it is a reasonable suspicion based on a basic synoptic meteorological assessment of the setup with a resilient primary in the upper Lakes and a near shore SLP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 hopefully we can get the euro just a tick or two south from 00z. and bombing just a hair earlier. beggars can be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'm happy with my just S of VT location for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 hopefully we can get the euro just a tick or two south from 00z. and bombing just a hair earlier. beggars can be choosers. Choose, no. Beg, yes. Beggars gonna beg, haters gonna hate, Connecticut gonna taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Your golf clubs will be collecting dust for a little while longer... Kind of looks that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Choose, no. Beg, yes. Beggars gonna beg, haters gonna hate, Connecticut gonna taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 hopefully we can get the euro just a tick or two south from 00z. and bombing just a hair earlier. beggars can be choosers. No thanks. It's bad karma to be openly greedy at the expense of the less fortunate. Spread the love to the NW crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 No thanks. It's bad karma to be openly greedy at the expense of the less fortunate. Spread the love to the NW crew. if only i had that kind of weather power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 if only i had that kind of weather power. everyone knows that meteorologists make the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 early returns euro looks pretty similar to 00z. maybe a hair slower and perhaps feeling the flow over the N atlantic a tiny bit more but very similar overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro: 84hr panel looks a tickle cooler at 850mb, 2m temps about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looks like the low is tracking close to ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 maybe halfway between ACK and the BM. low is a little weaker. looks good from ORH to the Berks and into VT/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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