Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Check PM PHIL. will do. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 will - where are you seeing the ggem at hr 90? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Nice to see GFS the outlier AMOUT Other than the GGEM and Euro agreeing with it....yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This setup looks pretty meh for most of southern CT. Lots of liquid followed by a burst of S+ on the backside. Too much warm air aloft and at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Other than the GGEM and Euro agreeing with it....yes. I was under the impression the Euro kept things a bit colder in its 00z run compared with the most recent 12z run of the GFS; but these unschooled eyes have seen things that would make a man sing for the sweet release of death, so they may not be focusing correctly no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Other than the GGEM and Euro agreeing with it....yes.Lol they don't. GGEM us all snow and Euro was almost all snow not a rainstorm to the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I was under the impression the Euro kept things a bit colder in its 00z run compared with the most recent 12z run of the GFS; but these unschooled eyes have seen things that would make a man sing for the sweet release of death, so they may not be focusing correctly no more. Euro was a tad slower and a bit more east which kept it a little colder. That, and it usually will have a colder thermal profile if we have high dynamics because its resolution can handle things like dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Lol they don't. GGEM us all snow and Euro was almost all snow not a rainstorm to the pike euro actually was rain to the pike for some of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Lol they don't. GGEM us all snow and Euro was almost all snow not a rainstorm to the pike This setup isn't ideal south of the pike. Not saying it'll rain all the way to the pike, but expect some taint with progged temps aloft...especially south of like DXR-HFD-IJD-BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Lol they don't. GGEM us all snow and Euro was almost all snow not a rainstorm to the pike But it followed a similar track, I just outlined it above. 3.5 days out son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Eventually a Pike north deal will come. Sorry, Rev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Other than the GGEM and Euro agreeing with it....yes. lol... this going to be an interesting few days. I can feel a lot of wishcasting and "assumptions" being made, "ie if it takes that track it'll be colder" etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 But it followed a similar track, I just outlined it above. 3.5 days out son.Its just so frustrating seeing you guys give the GFS credence. It has been wretched this winter. Yet all you good mets seem to favor it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It almost is like a Dec '05 in E MA where near the coast it may go snow to rain back to whiteout snowWill, said that this AM, whole setup reminds me of that fateful day. Ggem and GFS ENS are sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Eventually a Pike north deal will come. Sorry, Rev. We have had some pretty big bombs in march and april over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Lol they don't. GGEM us all snow and Euro was almost all snow not a rainstorm to the pike Euro and GGEM has plenty of taint...prob right up to the MA border or pike....in fact, the 12z GGEM is now out on ewall so I can post it...0C line right past your fanny at 90h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Its just so frustrating seeing you guys give the GFS credence. It has been wretched this winter. Yet all you good mets seem to favor it Not sure they favor it, but are simply using it as a piece of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Not terribly cold, but what a snowy pattern for Central and Northern New England. S new England may do well, but I think it will be more of an interior elevation thing there. The problem with assessing a snow pattern is that folks are thought to think in inches of accumulation over time spans... In the real physical world, that is utterly false. It's snow density that is the key variable. Think of it in terms of ratios ... I am sure you have read/heard it said, "10 to 1", or "20 to 1" ...etc. Without going into a micro-physical discussion, warmer temps create snow particles that fit together more efficiently, and that results in a compaction - get the temperature closer to freezing and then you end up with liquid also contained in the hydro-meteors, and then they really start to pack together. That's when you get your 5:1 (5 to 1) glop fests. This whole model gets complicated when wind fractures dendrites in to powder at various temperatures; high wind in a wet snow does less damage to dendrites, but high wind in a cold profile is a bull in a china shop. Anyway, the point is, quantitative snow fall is really what determines a snowier vs less snowy pattern. More snow in fact falls when the temperature is closer to freezing. If you get 15" of snow out of a 10:1 ratio, you actually have more snow than if you have 20" at 20:1 But again... people are hung up on inches of snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Its just so frustrating seeing you guys give the GFS credence. It has been wretched this winter. Yet all you good mets seem to favor it Every model gets taken into account this far out. Euro tainted your ass for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Its just so frustrating seeing you guys give the GFS credence. It has been wretched this winter. Yet all you good mets seem to favor it no model gave you straight snow. 00z and 12z ggem gets rain up there. euro did. gfs did. doesn't mean it will happen that way but it's within the realm of possibility that you get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 so...back to the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I posted 90h GGEM above, but look at what happens at 96h and check out the 6 hour qpf explosion over eastern MA, lol....that is what happens when you rip a hole in the atmosphere from height falls that strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Eventually a Pike north deal will come. Sorry, Rev. After, what 3 jackpots so far this winter for CT, I don't think anyone should be too upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 After, what 3 jackpots so far this winter for CT, I don't think anyone should be too upset. Not sure, But i think some got close to 30" down there in a blizzard we just had and are way over climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 One tedious observation about the GGEM - ...it's not a very wound up system. It's weak compared to climo with systems passing through that lat/lon. What it possesses is absolutely stunning kinematics for generating precip., relative to the intensity it has. Imagine if that storm were stronger? wow. Another detail, the 06 and 12z op. GFS blend is impressive enough, but it has actually recessed slightly over the previous 18z and 00z version. That "might" be because the impulse in question is currently passing through the region betwixt the GOA and west coast of B. Columbia (don't tell Phill or he'll rip your head off and sh*t down your neck) - j/k. But, I noticed that the NAM seem to also recess in the same dimensions using similar blends. I wonder if we may see a tick upgrade in appeal in a future run going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The problem with assessing a snow pattern is that folks are thought to think in inches of accumulation over time spans... In the real physical world, that is utterly false. It's snow density that is the key variable. Think of it in terms of ratios ... I am sure you have read/heard it said, "10 to 1", or "20 to 1" ...etc. Without going into a micro-physical discussion, warmer temps create snow particular that fit together more efficiently, and that results in a compaction - get the temperature closer to freezing and then you end up with liquid also contained in the hydro-meteors, and then they really start to pack together. That's when you get your 5:1 (5 to 1) glop fests. This whole model gets complicated when wind fractures dendrites in to powder at various temperatures; high wind in a wet snow does less damage to dendrites, but high wind in a cold profile is a bull in a china shop. Anyway, the point is, quantitative snow fall is really what determines a snowier vs less snowy pattern. More snow in fact falls when the temperature is closer to freezing. If you get 15" of snow out of a 10:1 ratio, you actually have more snow than if you have 20" at 20:1 But again... people are hung up on inches of snow totals. So we should be wishing for 4" of 4:1 glop mixed with sleet, rather than 10" of 12:1 snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMet Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Its just so frustrating seeing you guys give the GFS credence. It has been wretched this winter. Yet all you good mets seem to favor it A lot of mets give it credit because it is free and the first to deliver. We also are raised with reverence for NCEP. Truthfully though you'd be a fool to trust any one model. Even the "best" model almost always loses to the model / ensemble consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 So we should be wishing for 4" of 4:1 glop mixed with sleet, rather than 10" of 12:1 snow? Huh - your reading into that wrongly. It's not statement of fault as to one's particular perception on things - it's fundamental. There is "more snow" in a 10:1, 10" result, than a 20:1, 15" result. When I said fault, I meant that in the royal sense - as in the philosophy its self is wrong. But yeah .... it's less "fun" to romp through a storm in 6:1 than it is at 20:1 - but that's affectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Kevin nobody is weighing the GFS more than it should be. But, to just not look at it would be beyond stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Go look at 12/9/05 on Narr. Tainting to the Pike then boom. At any rate great storm coming up. Hopefully this thread gets off its myopic head and we can discuss the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.