powderfreak Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Looks good for SNE... I personally like the GGEM's evolution, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Incidentally in the sv weenie snow maps, mpm is jackpotted but he'll qvetch and worry till game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 will and scoots are feeling it. We just need the old guys to get aboard. This old man likes the weekend signal but won't get invested until Wed. As I said this AM, I like what I see moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Kevin's always a day early on these setups.....lol. I remember the 3/1/09 setup having the same argument... They typically come in faster than modelled five days out..but this prob holds off till Sat Am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Incidentally in the sv weenie snow maps, mpm is jackpotted but he'll qvetch and worry till game time.He and Pickles have a phobiaAt least this week I don't mind staying up late for model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This old man likes the weekend signal but won't get invested until Wed. As I said this AM, I like what I see moving forward. yeah...a bit more time needed. But thee later in the season events sometimes are more consistent.Sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 good stuff Tip, Will, others i could get very used to this qweek threat regimen biggest concern to my lay eyes would be positioning of west-based NAO... strongest we've had this winter I think since November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Kevin's always a day early on these setups.....lol. I remember the 3/1/09 setup having the same argument... We could get weenie snow from the dying initial shortwave in a good 12-18 hours before the main precip shield. But the main event as modeled needs to come from the second piece of energy...we could still have ptype issues in this, but the block is giving us some margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Can we make it 3 straight weekends with a bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Some similarities to 1/12/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Looks like rain down here for right now verbatim, but plenty of time for this to change, and the 12z GFS wasn’t far from an absolute bomb for down here, probably had rain changing over to about 6” of wet, heavy snow. EURO was warmer and all rain for here, correct? Still plenty of time for this to trend, 72 hours before the blizzard it was only 6-10” here after rain all day, and look where it ended up. Would rather be 50 miles north for this, but still think it has a decent chance at bringing accumulating snow here. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Looks like rain down here for right now verbatim, but plenty of time for this to change, and the 12z GFS wasn’t far from an absolute bomb for down here, probably had rain changing over to about 6” of wet, heavy snow. EURO was warmer and all rain for here, correct? Still plenty of time for this to trend, 72 hours before the blizzard it was only 6-10” here after rain all day, and look where it ended up. Would rather be 50 miles north for this, but still think it has a decent chance at bringing accumulating snow here. -skisheep Euro prob changed it to snow at the end there...the whole thing was a bit suppressed though, not a ton of qpf....the ensembles were a bit more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Is what too far out? Its 5 days out...its fine I think. In model land this is looking good but in model land 120 hours is an eternity. Get inside 72 and we will know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 In model land this is looking good but in model land 120 hours is an eternity. Get inside 72 and we will know. Yes I agree...though this threat has more wiggle room than many others given the block and the ensemble support is quite robust for 5 days out...still doing a bit of a squeeze play, but there's a legit shot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 In model land this is looking good but in model land 120 hours is an eternity. Get inside 72 24 and we will know. That's better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Yes I agree...though this threat has more wiggle room than many others given the block and the ensemble support is quite robust for 5 days out...still doing a bit of a squeeze play, but there's a legit shot here. certainly a strong signal today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 00z GFS should be interesting to see how it evolves. It is hanging the energy that reignites the storm this weekend well back in the southwest vs the 18z run. Also some decent changes in central Canada north of the primary cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I think the 00z gfs will be south but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Very different look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I can't believe how different it looks, lol. After a lot of models have bene pretty consistent for a few runs now. Still a ways out so not shocking, but it looks pretty weird at H5...awfully slow getting out of the SW US, not sure it will play out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Seems like the new deal is a deepening system well west that may catch the strung out system a day later vs earlier progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Nevermind. Looks like some mixing issues for some but that's quite a snowstorm. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I can't believe how different it looks, lol. After a lot of models have bene pretty consistent for a few runs now. Still a ways out so not shocking, but it looks pretty weird at H5...awfully slow getting out of the SW US, not sure it will play out like that. That's almost like something the euro would do with it struggling out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Nevermind. Looks like some mixing issues for some but that's quite a snowstorm. Did you accidentally look at the prior run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That's almost like something the euro would do with it struggling out of the SW. Yeah it just takes forever to get out of the southwest...and its not like its cutoff. I guess we'll see how the other globals handle it. Could just be a kooky run of the OP GFS. Look at how close it still is to a good event though even with the massive difference. That's def what I mean by having a bit of a margin on this one. Not a huge margin, but it doesn't have to be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Trying to cut this thing off and have it take till Memorial Day to reach the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'd like to think so. Can we make it 3 straight weekends with a bomb? visible.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Did you accidentally look at the prior run? yes lol my bad. I started looking at the new one and then when I was comparing to the old one I started doing something different and went back and looked at the old run. Multitasking FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I like the hp that is camping out in eastern Canada and challenging anything to breach.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This will be more interesting come Wednesday morning. Models certainly don't look bad right now in terms of enough cold air meandering around Eastern North America in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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