CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 And FWIW, the sounding at BOS is decent enough for pasting at hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I like that temps in the LIS are 34-36. Good news for the CP of CT. Does it matter much? Mot the biggest body of water and I suppose every little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The NAM looks good for folks in Rick-land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Does it matter much? Mot the biggest body of water and I suppose every little bit helps. The LIS is the reason I got into wx, lol it matters. I'd rather 34F SST's than 44F in late Dec, especially with marginal temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 And FWIW, the sounding at BOS is decent enough for pasting at hr 84. You shut your mouth when you're talking to me. Seriously though, I think we're real, real borderline on this one for a good bit of it. Back end looks to flip to solid snow no matter what as things currently look, but for how long and how intense, I'd say too far out to have a good handle on. I like having the Euro looking solid, though. After the blizzard it's comforting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 still plenty of time to let this one unfold as i gaze onto the 2-3 freshly fallen inches out side i bet a weenie hill here and there could make a nice difference in emass in this event, like the one in framingham that's 600' (brimstone lane) and those areas on route 290 like northboro /shrewsbury/ that are aoa 500 .......also a few weenie hills in westborough. this one is dicey around 128.............dynamics would flip us......but still ratio's could be low i would think. accums should rocket up toward WILL. (unless this trends colder) Almost all of Shrewsbury is >500...the hills get close to 900 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The LIS is the reason I got into wx, lol it matters. I'd rather 34F SST's than 44F in late Dec, especially with marginal temps aloft. Cool. Was not sure if the fetch, etc was long enough to impact the layer, but again, if it is close, having surface temps of 34 would be much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Cool. Was not sure if the fetch, etc was long enough to impact the layer, but again, if it is close, having surface temps of 34 would be much better Coastal CT will probably rain for a time anyway, but yes 12/29 was a good example of having 40F SST's and light precip with a SE fetch= rain lol it flipped when rates picked up. Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Pretty amped, prob ptype issues for most before it crashes back SE...not that the NAM at this point is of any real use...but verbatim that is what it looks like. I approve of the NAM. It's also faster. Most mets were talking about an evening or late aft start....NAM would say much earlier. And FWIW...SREF's are as bullish as I've seen 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Almost all of Shrewsbury is >500...the hills get close to 900 I believe. I don't think it gets that high in Shrewsbury...the highest point IIRC is Rawson Hill near the Boylston line which gets around 800 maybe? But much of the center of town there is around 650-700 feet and then it drops off to around 400 feet as you head east into Northboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 the euro is a tree leveler all across E MA. verbatim the model is about 2" of rain followed by 8-10" of concrete and 50 knot winds on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Pretty amped, prob ptype issues for most before it crashes back SE...not that the NAM at this point is of any real use...but verbatim that is what it looks like. I approve of the NAM. It's also faster. Most mets were talking about an evening or late aft start....NAM would say much earlier. And FWIW...SREF's are as bullish as I've seen 84 hours out. I'm hoping for slower, would love an extra day of vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 You shut your mouth when you're talking to me. Seriously though, I think we're real, real borderline on this one for a good bit of it. Back end looks to flip to solid snow no matter what as things currently look, but for how long and how intense, I'd say too far out to have a good handle on. I like having the Euro looking solid, though. After the blizzard it's comforting. Yeah I mean you only can say so much this far out...but it's borderline for a little while anyways. At least when it gets cranking it will be at night...not that daytime insolation means a TON this time of year, but every little bit helps. Half a degree could mean everything. As long as winds aren't screaming due east, a wind direction like 050 or better is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I don't think it gets that high in Shrewsbury...the highest point IIRC is Rawson Hill near the Boylston line which gets around 800 maybe? But much of the center of town there is around 650-700 feet and then it drops off to around 400 feet as you head east into Northboro. Yeah...you're right. I thought I remembered Matt (ma_blizzard) saying that it hit 860' near the Boylston line but maybe I'm off there. And yeah it drops off as you head east (and briefly drops off below 500' near lake Quinsigamond too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This system has taken on characteristics of being a SWFE over the past 24h. The moisture flooding in from the S is ridiculous as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I don't think I lost any snowpack yesterday. Just an ice block now. Hopefully this Saturday into Sunday morning storm is 100% wet, Maple mauling,Fir Flattening snow. We don't need powder that will vanish into thin air in the strong Nape burning sun of late Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Well this has certainly gotten exciting no? All global models showing major potential for this weekend. But we have to remember that it is only potential right now!! We are still 3+ days from this event. And if anything has been show this winter it is patience. Let's get a couple more computer runs under our belt before we get over excited. I will admit that the considerable amount of agreement between the various computer models does boost confidence a bit. But we never know, they could all agree on a fish storm by tonight. One thing that I did like however was how both the Euro and the GFS showed basically a parade of storms heading towards the beginning of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 the euro and 12z nam aren't really that far off from one another by 00z sunday at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I don't think I lost any snowpack yesterday. Just an ice block now. Hopefully this Saturday into Sunday morning storm is 100% wet, Maple mauling,Fir Flattening snow. We don't need powder that will vanish into thin air in the strong Nape burning sun of late Feb Awesome. Can I swing by and chip a few chunks for myself? Never-melt ice cubes are awesome; hate diluting a good strong drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I don't think I lost any snowpack yesterday. Just an ice block now. Hopefully this Saturday into Sunday morning storm is 100% wet, Maple mauling,Fir Flattening snow. We don't need powder that will vanish into thin air in the strong Nape burning sun of late Feb Temps in the 40s and rain? You lost some, just not much. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Temps in the 40s and rain? You lost some, just not much. Same here.It hit 41 pre rain and then settled back into upper 30's . We had .18 of rain. I really don't think it did anything. I didn't measure but it looks exactly the same when I left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 cover is rather hit or miss here now. it poured overnight and the thin areas completely vanished and became pretty big. shaded areas and regions where there were drifts are still covered fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I don't think it gets that high in Shrewsbury...the highest point IIRC is Rawson Hill near the Boylston line which gets around 800 maybe? But much of the center of town there is around 650-700 feet and then it drops off to around 400 feet as you head east into Northboro. Rawson hill ~755' asl , which I believe is the highest point in shrewsbury http://docs.unh.edu/MA/shrw53sw.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 cover is rather hit or miss here now. it poured overnight and the thin areas completely vanished and became pretty big. shaded areas and regions where there were drifts are still covered fine. Blown away areas and sun torched areas that receive 5-6 hrs direct sunlight are bare too. Much different in the burbs with more tree cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 euro snow maps have a nice bullseye 18"+ from just about BOS to ORH to N RI...495 zone of jackpot as usual there. 12"+ for a big piece of real estate...good chunk of NH and in ma essentially all of the eastern 2/3rds of the state right down to the canal....N half of RI, windham county, CT. a general 6-9 or 6-12 outlining that region. can really see how the CCB pounds E regions as they sort of play catch-up during the 2nd half of the event with extreme precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Scooter this isn't an ENE special is it? This pounds all of us equally right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Blown away areas and sun torched areas that receive 5-6 hrs direct sunlight are bare too. Much different in the burbs with more tree cover. Really? 100% coverage here, other than what was shovelled/snowblowed... Black ice thismorning was sick. We could use a nice refresher, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Scooter this isn't an ENE special is it? This pounds all of us equally right? ENE special? last weekend was a ENE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 euro snow maps have a nice bullseye 18"+ from just about BOS to ORH to N RI...495 zone of jackpot as usual there. 12"+ for a big piece of real estate...good chunk of NH and in ma essentially all of the eastern 2/3rds of the state right down to the canal....N half of RI, windham county, CT. a general 6-9 or 6-12 outlining that region. can really see how the CCB pounds E regions as they sort of play catch-up during the 2nd half of the event with extreme precip rates. Bah, this thing needs to ride ride the canal. You eastern folks are gonna taint anyway, right? GC needs some love too..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS looks very similar so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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